Godwin, William. Of Population. London: Longman, Hurst, Rees, Orme and Brown, Paternoster Row, 1820.

CHAPTER IV.

ACCOUNTS WHICH ARE GIVEN OF THE POPULATION OF SWEDEN.

HAVING thus delivered what may perhaps be found to be the fundamental principle of our subject, we may profitably proceed to the examination of such documents, as the assiduity of political governors, or the industry of authors who have for whatever reason concerned themselves with the numbers of mankind, has collected on the subject of the populousness of nations.

It will be clear from what has been said, that tables of population for any very limited period, which do not distinguish the sexes and the different ages of the inhabitants of a country, are absolutely of no use in determining the question of the power, generally, or in any particular case, of progressive increase in the numbers of mankind, The two enumerations therefore, which were made of the people of Great Britain in 1801 and 1811, are merely so much labor thrown away.

Having taken some pains to look through all that is known of the population of countries, I can find nothing that affords a chance of reasonable satisfaction, except the accounts which have been published of the population of Sweden. To them therefore for the present I shall particularly direct my attention.

Sweden is a regio pene toto divisa orbe. It receives few emigrants, and sends forth few colonies. In the period to which the accounts relate that I am about to produce, this kingdom has enjoyed a great portion of internal tranquility; and, as will more fully appear in the sequel, has possessed almost every imaginable advantage for the increase of its inhabitants by direct procreation.

Of the people of Sweden I find an account to have been taken, from three years to three years, in the enlightened manner above suggested, that is, under separate heads as to sex and age, from the year 1751, to, 1 believe, the year 1775. From that period it has been continued to the present time, with an interval of five years between each enumeration.

The collectors of the Swedish enumerations have further presented us with Tables of the annual births, marriages and deaths; and have even, in two instances, proceeded to compare the population as it is, with the population as it ought to be: thus,

For the year 1780.

Ought to be ---------------- 2,780,334,

Is-------------------------------2,782,168

And again for 1795.

Ought to be ------------------3,078,308

Is -------------------------------3,043,731^a.

Now the upper line in each of these examples, I conceive, can mean nothing else, than that, if we add the report of the intermediate births to the preceding enumeration, and subtract the intermediate deaths, the result ought to be as here stated. If this be the case, it is certainly worthy of remark, how near the computatory and the actual enumerations come to each other, and consequently how high a degree of credit is due -to the Swedish Tables.

A judicious abstract of the information then existing on the subject, was published in the Swedish language, in the Memoirs of the Royal Aeademy of Sciences at Stockholm for the Year 1766, by Mr. Peter Wargentin, secretary to that institution. A continuation of Mr. Wargentin's paper has appeared, but somewhat irregularly, in the subsequent volumes of the same collection. I will set out with exhibiting an ample specimen of these Tables of population.^b

TABLE I.

Containing an Abstract of the Bills of Mortality

For the Years 1755, 1756, and 1757 and a

Summary of the Enumeration for 1757

Annual Deaths, being an Average of Deaths during the Years 1755, 1756, 1757	Number of Living in 1757
	Males	Fem		Males	Females
Still-born Died under 1 year Between 1-5 3-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45-50 50-55 55-60 60-65 65-70 70-75 75-80 80-85 85-90 Upwards of 90	1301 10542 3884 1922 1639 739 635 826 845 909 819 1012 899 1090 1102 1214 1222 1390 1056 733 412 240	950 9348 4027 1800 1566 716 607 716 836 1014 757 969 774 941 1100 1481 1693 2009 1593 1244 673 407	Born Under 1 year Between 1-5 3-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45-50 50-55 55-60 60-65 65-70 70-75 75-80 80-85 85-90 Upwards of 90	44795 33731 63954 64380 123984 114606 95354 91460 86947 82716 68516 58990 50658 43500 39091 28557 22293 16390 9236 4060 1690 583	42999 33459 64883 65045 125175 114203 100087 104873 99781 90880 75563 65443 58162 51973 48599 39580 33559 24913 14679 6786 2932 1026
	33130	34269	Males Females	1121595 1221600	1221600
			Total	2323195

Table II.

Average Deaths during the Years 1758, 1759, 1760	Number of Living in 1760
	Males	Fem		Males	Females
Still-born Died under 1 year Between 1-5 3-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45-50 50-55 55-60 60-65 65-70 70-75 75-80 80-85 85-90 Upwards of 90	1183 9239 3020 1549 1605 736 678 862 932 1020 957 1150 1160 1251 1378 1401 1306 1432 1187 846 410 223	309 7789 2861 1482 1435 691 639 772 957 1151 918 1184 990 1167 1307 1749 760 2275 1825 1341 669 392	Born Under 1 year Between 1-5 3-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45-50 50-55 55-60 60-65 65-70 70-75 75-80 80-85 85-90 Upwards of 90	44174 37323 66034 65828 128627 121525 97621 88752 85001 81433 70773 61158 51407 43897 37224 82329 21438 15102 9096 418 1513 555	42381 37272 66860 66923 129332 119514 101633 103613 100614 92154 79066 68645 59889 51872 46402 42647 30169 25299 14265 7387 2571 1019
	32357	33354	Males Females	1121053 1246545	1246545
			Total	2367598

TABLE III

Average Deaths during the Years 1761, 1762, 1763

Number of Living in 1763

	Males	Fem		Males	Females
Still-born Died under 1 year Between 1-5 3-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45-50 50-55 55-60 60-65 65-70 70-75 75-80 80-85 85-90 Upwards of 90	1324 11172 4393 2206 2151 933 711 834 883 1020 955 1180 1099 1280 1177 1586 1237 1322 1092 917 414 215	988 9850 4336 2249 2057 834 658 756 863 1146 923 1170 938 1113 1097 1721 1566 2041 1695 1446 650 379	Born Under 1 year Between 1-5 3-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45-50 50-55 55-60 60-65 65-70 70-75 75-80 80-85 85-90 Upwards of 90	45892 36094 66059 66454 130019 126696 108312 92299 88056 85936 74826 67448 52398 47298 37086 34892 20649 15454 8858 4620 1508 527	43904 35453 67234 67711 130758 128021 109985 105115 101003 95811 81453 74854 59551 56646 45537 44925 28964 23159 13556 7487 2694 988
	36777	37488	Males Females	1165489 1280905	1280905
			Total	2446394

TABLE IV

Account of the Births, Marriages, and Deaths in the Kingdom of Sweden for Fifteen Years.

Years	Births	Marriages	Deaths
1749 1750 1751 1752 1753 1754 1755 1756 1757 1758 1759 1760 1761 1762 1763	76766 82360 89341 84110 84406 90021 91767 89739 81878 83299 85579 90635 90075 89162 90152	19045 20927 21335 20922 20089 21994 21472 20007 18799 19484 23210 23383 22421 21467 20927	617483 58939 57663 60456 54977 64715 64982 69161 68034 74370 62662 60083 63183 74520 85093

TABLE V

Enumerations of the People of Sweden for 1800 and 1805

1800	1805
	Males	Fem	Males	Fem
Under 1 Year Between 1 &3 3-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45-50 50-55 55-60 60-65 65-70 70-75 75-80 80-85 85-90 to 95 100 101,2,3 104 06 08	41,515 83,903 86,536 167,795 154,453 137,972 130,552 113,470 109,649 100,052 93,442 81,703 68,856 52,221 41,881 31,961 20,768 10,667 4,087 1,151 213	40,424 84,253 87,352 168,316 153,392 142,292 141,914 125,059 120,134 110,302 101,597 91,244 77,980 61,066 51,480 41,125 27,787 15,009 6,249 1,884 424	47,688 87,373 83,387 174,332 169,054 143,232 134,518 127,503 108,152 100,714 95,743 82,968 75,046 56,953 43,888 29,965 21,167 11,372 4,827 1,280 273 45 5 1	47,413 88,982 84,672 174,736 168,529 147,582 144,432 135,583 118,076 112,212 106,057 92,779 84,680 67,302 52,499 39,785 29,494 16,345 7,396 2,095 437 66 6 2 1 1
	1,532,849	1,649,283	1,599,487	1,721,160
3,182,132	3,320,647

TABLE VI

Population of the Diocese of Upsal.

	Number of the Living				Unmarried above 15	Under 15
Year	Males	Fem	Total	Subsisting Marriages	Widowers	Widows	Males	Fem	Males	Fem	Households
1749 1752 1755 1760 1763 1766 1769 1772 1773	90503 93441 97355 95966 99933 102949 104824 105564 109989	105926 108752 110949 113384 114112 117057 118671 119081 116725	196429 202193 208304 209350 214045 220006 223495 224645 220714	36279 37474 38872 38851 40492 41273 42055 41652 40682	2083 1750 2055 2148 2228 2328 2158 2671 3151	11848 11774 11537 12621 11874 12267 12202 12381 12039	21059 21381 22232 21726 21826 23438 24564 25455 25826	25818 27432 27209 27325 26921 27827 28139 28989 29330	31650 32364 33652 33629 25063 35902 36079 35792 34357	31412 32544 33874 43199 35154 35688 36242 36053 34654	29494 28014 29007 29262 30568 33417 33688 33580 32944

TABLE VII.

A General View of the Increase of the Population of Sweden

Years	Population	Interval	Increase	Proportion
1751 1757 1760 1763 1775 1780 1795 1800 1805 or without Finland 1805 1810 1815	2,229,611 2,323,195 2,367,598 2,446,394 2,630,992 2,782,168 3,013,731 3,182,132 3,320,647 2,424,874 2,377,851 2,465,066	6 years 3 years 3 years 12 years 5 years 15 years 5 years 5 years 5 years 5 years	93,534 44,403 78,796 184,598 151,176 261,563 138,401 138,515 Diminution 87,215	1/24 1/32 1/30 1/13 1/10 1/10 1/22 1/23 1/27

Total Increase in 54 years, from 1751 to 1805,

1,091,016, or ½ nearly.

The first remark that suggests itself on these tables is, that they constitute the only documents which prove from actual observation, and in the compass of ordinary history, that there is a power of numerical increase in the human species. Exclusively of this evidence, all is conjecture merely; and one man has as much right to believe, with Montesquieu, that the race of mankind is by a fatal necessity rapidly verging towards extinction, as another to embrace the wild and chimerical opinions of Mr. Mai thus, and the far-famed doctrine of the geometrical ratio.

In Sweden there has been for a certain period a progressive increase of population; and we have great reason to believe that this increase is chiefly or solely the effect of the principle of procreation. To judge from what has appeared in fifty-four years, from 1751 to 1805, we should say that the human species, in some situations, and under some circumstances, might double itself in somewhat more than one hundred years.

This is all that is known on the subject, which is in the smallest degree calculated to afford a foundation for Mr. Malthus's theories. For it will fully appear, when we come to treat of the United States of North America, that they do not yield him the slightest support.

This is all that is known in any degree favor, able to Mr. Malthus's theories. What then is there that is known on the other side?

Every thing which has been brought together in the former book. We have not the smallest reason to believe, that the population of the earth has increased, or that the human race is in any way more numerous now, than it was three thousand years ago. This is a fact worthy of the most serious consideration:

Mr. Malthus dismisses this question in the slightest manner, and in his usual summary and dictatorial way pronounces that it is vise and misery that keep down the numbers of mankind. As his theory is delivered in three lines, "Population, when unchecked, goes on doubling itself every twenty-five years, or increases in a geometrical ratio:" so his answer to every objection lies also in three lines, "The positive checks to population are various, and include every cause whether arising from vise or misery, which in any degree contributes to shorten the natural duration of human life."^c

It is not thus that the subject will be treated in after-ages, and when philosophy shall have extended its empire over this topic as over others. Mr. Malthus has taken his contemporaries by surprise, and, partly by the dazzling simplicity of his hypothesis, and partly by its tendency, supporting as it does, and furnishing the apology of, almost all human vises, and particularly those of the rich and great, has gained a countless number of adherents.

But what he has here delivered has not even the semblance of science. And patient men, I will venture to predict, will hereafter arise, who will look narrowly into the subject, and will endeavor from clear and intelligible principles, not by one sweeping and unlimited clause, to account for the facts brought together in my first book.

The question then will be, to consider, What is the reason that the multiplication of mankind, such as we find it for fifty-four years in Sweden, has never prevailed for any very extensive period of time, in any country of the world.^d This question necessarily involves with it another, and infinitely important question, Whether it is in any way the duty of political governments, or of those who possess power over their fellow-men, to meditate or provide any purposed or intentional checks against the increase of the human race?

My concern in the present Book is with the question, after what rate it is possible, judging from facts and actual experience, for the race of mankind, under the most favorable circumstances, to increase. It will be the object of the Third Book, to put together such hints as I have been able to collect, and such reflections as have occurred to me, that may be calculated to afford a methodical and satisfactory solution of the fact generally as to the non-increase of the human race. At least I shall hope, as I said in a former instance,^e that "some foundation will be laid by me, and the principle will begin to be understood." I am anxious to "set before other enquirers evidence that they may scan, and arguments which, if convincing, they may expand, and if otherwise, which they may refute." I am anxious to furnish the materials of a solution, if not a solution in all its forms, of the phenomenon of the non-increase of the human race so far as the records of authentic profane history extend.

---

The population of Sweden in 1805, as appears from the actual enumeration, amounted to 3,320,647

Now let us take half this number the population of 1705: 1,660,323

By the same rule the population will be in 1605: 830,162

in 1505: 415,081

in 1405: 207,840

in 1305: 103,770

in 1205: 51,885

in 1105: 25,942

in 1005: 12,971

in" 905: 6,485

in 805: 3,242

in 705: 1,621

in 605: 810

in 505: 405

"So that by this way of calculation Sweden contained, at the time of the destruction of the Western Empire in 476, little more than three hundred souls, and when this part of the globe began to send forth its hordes, which destroyed the power of the Romans, and charged the face of the world, it could scarcely boast a human inhabitant.

---

a Memoirs of the Royal Academy of Stockholm, for the Year 1799

b Of the Tables I have here inserted, the first four are to be found in the volume of the Swedish Memoirs for 1766, the fifth in the volume for 1809, and the 6th in the volume for 1776. The seventh is a Table of my own construction, founded generally on the enumerations I met with dispersed in different volumes of this work.

c Essay on Population, Vol. I. p. 21.

d "It may be worth while to illustrate this proposition in figures, thus:

e Page 3.