,T[>D AN ,AN>*I/ ,POLICY ON ,SYRIA 

,PEOPLE 3 

,AU?OR 3 ,FIR/ ( ,MAY ,AN>*I/ ,ALLIANCE 

,TEXT 3 

,I4 ,9TRODUCTION 

  

,AT ! MOM5T1 ! ,MIDDLE ,EA/ 7TAK5 BROADLY1 ?AT IS1 ! >EA FROM ,NOR? ,AFRICA TO ,PAKI/AN7 IS ! P>T ( ! WORLD EXP]I5C+ ! GREATE/ POLITICAL 9/ABILITY & UND]GO+ ! MO/ RAPID *ANGE4 ,AT ! C5T] ( ! TURMOIL IS ,SYRIA1 N[ 9 ITS ?IRD YE> ( CIVIL W> ) NO SIGN ( ANY RESOLUTION 9 SI<T4 ,GIV5 ! C5TRALITY ( ,SYRIA TO GLOBAL POLITICS1 IT IS ESS5TIAL ?AT AN>*I/S UND]/& :AT IS GO+ ON !RE & DEVELOP A CRITICAL ATTITUDE T[>D ! EV5TS ?AT >E UNFOLD+4 ,UN=TUNATELY1 WE >E NOT EXP]TS ON ! HI/ORY & CURR5T DYNAMICS ( ,SYRIA & ( ! ,MIDDLE ,EA/ AS A :OLE4 ,! FOLL[+ !SES >E !RE=E PRES5T$ ) HUMILITY4 ,WE W\LD GREATLY APPRECIATE 9PUT FROM O!RS1 P>TICUL>LY ?OSE ) GREAT] BACKGR\ND 9 ! >EA1 ESPECIALLY AN>*I/S LIV+ 9 ! REGION1 9 ! DEVELOPM5T ( \R POSITION4 

,I,I4 ,9T]NATIONAL & ,HI/ORIC ,CONTEXT 

  

,IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO UND]/& :AT IS GO+ ON 9 ,SYRIA TODAY )\T SOME KN[L$GE ( ! 9T]NATIONAL & HI/ORICAL CONTEXT 9 :I* ! EV5TS >E TAK+ PLACE4 ,9 V]Y BROAD /ROKES1 IT IS WOR? M5TION+3 

,A4 ,! EBB+ ( ! P[] ( ,U,S IMP]IALISM4 

  

,! ,UNIT$ ,/ATES BECAME ! HEGEMONIC P[] 9 ! ,MIDDLE ,EA/ DUR+ ! #a#i#eS1 TAK+ ! PLACE ( ,BRITI% IMP]IALISM1 :OSE WEAKNESS HAD BE5 REVEAL$ BY ! EV5TS ( ,WORLD ,W> ,I,I & ! IMM$IATE PO/W> P]IOD4 ,?IS HEGEMONY 7:I* 9CLUD$ ! COLONIAL P[]S ( ,WE/]N ,EUROPE AS JUNIOR P>TN]S7 WAS OCCASIONALLY *ALL5G$ BY ! ,RUSSIANS 7!N 9 ! =M ( ! ,SOVIET ,UNION71 :O S\<T TO 9T]V5E 9 ! >EA BY SUPPORT+ NATIONALI/1 ANTI-IMP]IALI/ =CES4 

,!SE =CES (T5 TOOK P[] ?R\< 0NATIONAL REVOLUTIONS10 USUALLY MILIT>Y C\PS L$ BY JUNIOR (FIC]S1 :O1 ONCE 9 P[]1 TILT$ T[>D1 & RECEIV$ AID FROM1 ! ,SOVIET ,UNION4 ,SU* REGIMES 9CLUD$ ,NASS]'S 9 ,EGYPT1 A SIMIL> ONE 9 ,SYRIA 7:I* FROM #aieh TO #aifa WAS UNIT$ ) ,EGYPT 9 ! SO-CALL$ 0,UNIT$ ,>AB ,REPUBLIC071 & ONE 9 ,IRAQ4 ,:5 ,NASS] DI$1 HE WAS REPLAC$ BY ,ANW> AL-,SADAT1 :O EV5TUALLY 79 #a#i#g#i7 SIGN$ A PEACE TREATY ) ,ISRAEL & ALIGN$ ,EGYPT FIRMLY ) ! ,UNIT$ ,/ATES4 ,9 ,IRAQ & ,SYRIA1 A S]IES ( MILIT>Y C\PS BR\<T TO P[] /RONGM51 ,SADDAM ,HUSSE9 9 ,IRAQ & ,HAFEZ AL-,ASSAD 9 ,SYRIA1 RESPECTIVELY1 :O S\<T TO PLAY (F ! ,U,S,S,R & ! ,UNIT$ ,/ATES1 :ILE G5]ALLY LEAN+ T[>D ! ,RUSSIANS4 ,9 ,IRAN1 A SECUL> NATIONALI/1 ,MOSSADEQ1 WAS OV]?R[N BY ,U,S-BACK$ C\P 9 #a#i#e#c1 :I* BR\<T TO P[] ! V]Y PRO-,WE/ ,%AH4 ,HE WAS OV]?R[N 9 #aigi & REPLAC$ BY A ,%IITE !OCRATIC GOV]NM5T 7/ILL 9 P[]7 :I* HAS G5]ALLY OPPOS$ BO? ! ,U,S & ! ,RUSSIANS4 ,DESPITE ALL ?IS1 ! OV]ALL P[] ( ,U,S IMP]IALISM1 BAS$ FIRMLY ON ,ISRAEL1 ,JORDAN1 ,SAUDI ,>ABIA1 & AFT] #a#i#g#i1 ,EGYPT1 WAS NEV] S]I\SLY ?REAT5$4 

,TODAY1 H[EV]1 ,U,S IMP]IALISM IS 9 RETREAT1 AS ! ECONOMIC CRISIS ( #bh HAS EXPOS$ ! UND]LY+ ECONOMIC & SOCIAL PROBLEMS ( ,U,S SOCIETY4 ,MEAN:ILE1 !RE IS NO C\NTRY :I*1 AT LEA/ AS ( YET1 HAS ! P[] TO TAKE ITS PLACE4 ,AL?\< ,*9ESE IMP]IALISM1 ! 9T]NATIONAL EXT5SION ( ! /ATE CAPITALI/ SY/EM 9 ,*9A1 IS 9CREAS+ ITS P5ETRATION ( MANY >EAS ( ! GLOBE 79CLUD+ ! ,UNIT$ ,/ATES1 ,CANADA1 ,WE/]N ,EUROPE1 ,AFRICA1 & ,LAT9 ,AM]ICA71 IT IS NOT YET CAPABLE ( TAK+ ! ,UNIT$ ,/ATES' PLACE AS ! HEGEMONIC P[] 9 ANY ONE REGION1 & C]TA9LY NOT 9 ! ,MIDDLE ,EA/4 ,?IS WEAK5+ ( OV]ALL IMP]IALI/ DOM9ATION1 COMB9$ ) ! EFFECTS ( GLOBALIZATION ON ! C\NTRIES 9 ! >EA1 HAS 9SPIR$ POLITICAL & SOCIAL =CES AMONG ! MIDDLE CLASSES TO SEEK POLITICAL P[] = !MSELVES4 ,!SE GR\PS1 9CLUD+ MILITANT ,ISLAMIC ORGANIZATIONS & PRO-,WE/]N LIB]ALS1 HAVE MANAG$ TO ASSUME ! LEAD]%IP ( MU* BROAD] SOCIAL LAY]S :O HAVE BE5 PLAGU$ BY RAMPANT UNEMPLOYM5T 7P>TICUL>LY AMONG Y\NG PEOPLE71 DECREPIT H\S+ & URBAN 9FRA/RUCTURES1 9FLATION1 & ! O!R RESULTS ( UNEV5 ECONOMIC GR[?4 ,! RESULTS ( ?IS COMPLEX SOCIAL PROCESS HAVE 9CLUD$ ! REC5T REVOLUTIONS 9 ,TUNISIA1 ,EGYPT1 & ,LIBYA1 & ! REVOLUTION1 N[ TAK+ ! =M ( A CIVIL W>1 9 ,SYRIA4 

,B4 ,! DECL9E ( ! ,WE/4 

  

,! LONG] RANGE HI/ORICAL CONTEXT 9 :I* ! EV5TS 9 ,SYRIA & ! ,MIDDLE ,EA/ AS A :OLE >E TAK+ PLACE IS ! GLOBAL DECL9E ( ! ,WE/1 ?AT IS1 ! WAN+ ( ! 9T]NATIONAL HEGEMONY ( ! ,EUROPEAN NATIONS & !IR (F%OOTS4 ,?IS HEGEMONY WAS ROOT$ 9 ! EXPLOSIVE ECONOMIC EXPANSION ?AT BEGAN 9 ,WE/]N ,EUROPE 9 7R\<LY7 #a#e1 BAS$ ON ! DEVELOPM5T1 FIR/1 ( M]CANTILE CAPITALISM1 & !N1 #c YE>S LAT]1 ( 9DU/RIAL CAPITALISM4 ,?IS DYNAMIC GR[? WAS AN 9T]NATIONAL PH5OM5ON1 RESULT+ 9 ! EM]G5CE & SPREAD ( :AT BECAME KN[N AS ,WE/]N IMP]IALISM4 ,:ILE ?IS IMP]IALISM MET ) COMP>ATIVELY LITTLE RESI/ANCE FROM ! 9DIG5\S POPULATIONS ( ! ,WE/]N HEMISPH]E1 :O SUCCUMB$ RA!R QUICKLY TO MILIT>Y CONQUE/ &1 EV5 MORE SO1 TO DISEASES = :I* !Y HAD NO IMMUNITY1 IT WAS NOT SO =TUNATE ELSE:]E 9 ! WORLD4 ,?IS WAS ESPECIALLY ! CASE 9 ! ,MIDDLE ,EA/1 :]E HI<LY CULTUR$1 TE*NOLOGICALLY ADVANC$ CIVILIZATIONS HAD EXI/$ = MANY C5TURIES4 ,H]E1 ,EUROPEAN P5ETRATION WAS ONLY P>TIAL2 5TIRE C\NTRIES1 9CLUD+ ,AF<ANI/AN1 ,P]SIA_/,IRAN1 & ,TURKEY1 W]E NEV] FULLY CONQU]$ BY ,EUROPEANS_/,EUROPEAN-,AM]ICANS4 ,! RESULT1 = SEV]AL HUNDR$ YE>S1 WAS AN UN/ABLE /ALEMATE BETWE5 ! RUL+ 7L&LORD & CAPITALI/7 CLASSES ( ! ,WE/1 ON ! ONE H&1 & ! RUL+ ELITES ( ! ,MIDDLE ,EA/ 7H[EV] WE MI<T DEF9E !M1 E4G4 SEMI-FEUDAL1 BUREAUCRATIC1 ,ASIATIC-DESPOTIC7 ON ! O!R4 

,9 FACT1 ! CONFLICT BETWE5 ! TWO REGIONS GOES BACK EV5 FUR!R4 ,SPECIFICALLY3  

,! EXPLOSIVE GR[? ( ,ISLAM & ,ISLAMIC CIVILIZATION ?R\<\T ! ,MIDDLE ,EA/1 9TO S\? & S\!A/ ,ASIA1 ACROSS NOR? ,AFRICA1 & 9TO ,EUROPE 7,SPA9 & S\!RN ,FRANCE7 9 ! LATE #g? & E>LY #h? C5TURIES2 &  

,! C\NT]-ATTACK BY ! ,EUROPEANS1 9 ! =M ( ! ,RECONQUI/A 9 ,SPA9 &1 LAT]1 ! ,CRUSADES4  
  

,:5 LOOK$ AT FROM ?IS LONG-T]M P]SPECTIVE1 :AT WE SEE IS A TRANS-EPO*AL CONFLICT BETWE5 TWO REGIONS_/CULTURES_/CIVILIZATIONS1 9 :I*1 AT ! MOM5T1 ! ,EUROPEAN_/,EURO-,AM]ICAN1 AFT] C5TURIES ( AGGRESSIVE EXPANSION1 HAS MOV$ ONTO ! DEF5SIVE4 ,?IS 0W> ( CIVILIZATIONS0 REMA9S1 H[EV] VAGUELY1 9 ! HI/ORIC MEMORIES ( ! PEOPLES ( ! ,MIDDLE ,EA/ TO ?IS DAY & FUELS MU* ( ! NATIONALISM & RELIGI\S FANATICISM ?AT IS N[ SO PREVAL5T ?R\<\T ! REGION4 

,C4 ,! PROBLEM ( IMP]IALI/ IMPOS$ NATIONAL ID5TITIES4 

  

,IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMB] ?AT ONE IMPORTANT \TCOME ( ?IS C5TURIES-OLD CONFLICT1 & P>TICUL>LY ITS MORE REC5T DEVELOPM5TS1 IS ?AT MANY ( ! EXI/+ NATION-/ATES ( ! ,MIDDLE ,EA/ >E >TIFICIAL CON/RUCTIONS4 ,:5 IT BECAME CLE> ?AT ! MULTI-E?NIC 7,TURKI%-DOM9AT$7 ,OTTOMAN ,EMPIRE W\LD COLLAPSE AFT] ,WORLD ,W> ,I1 ! ,BRITI% & ! ,FR5*1 9 ! SECRET ,SYKES-,PICOT ,AGREEM5T ( #a#i#a#f1 DREW L>GELY >BITR>Y L9ES ON ! MAP TO DEM>CATE MOD]N NATIONAL /ATES 7:]E BE=E !RE HAD BE5 ONLY HI/ORICAL_/GEOGRAPHICAL REGIONS OR ADM9I/RATIVE DIVISIONS74 ,!Y !N P>CEL$ \T !SE /ATES TO !MSELVES1 7E4G41 ,LEBANON & ,SYRIA TO ! ,FR5*2 ,PALE/9E1 ,JORDAN1 & ,IRAQ TO ! ,BRITI%74 ,! RESULT WAS ?AT1 9 CONTRA/ TO ,EUROPE1 :]E NATION /ATES 7& CORRESPOND+ NATIONALITIES7 HAD C5TURIES TO TAKE %APE & BE CONSOLIDAT$1 9 ! ,MIDDLE ,EA/ 7& 9 ! ,BALKAN ,P59SULA1 :I* WAS UND] ,TURKI%_/,ISLAMIC RULE = C5TURIES71 ! PROCESS ( NATION-BUILD+ HAD TO TAKE PLACE V]Y RAPIDLY1 9 A HAPHAZ>D FA%ION4 ,IT IS L>GELY BECAUSE ( ?IS ?AT1 ASIDE FROM ! CONFLICTS AMONG ! /ATES 9 ! >EA1 MANY ( ! /ATES COMPRISE :AT %\LD BE SE5 AS 0IMP]IALI/ IMPOS$ NATIONAL ID5TITIES40 ,9 !SE C\NTRIES 7E4G41 ,IRAQ1 ,SYRIA1 ,LEBANON1 ,JORDAN1 & ,ISRAEL_/,PALE/9E71 PEOPLE DEF9E !MSELVES AS MU*1 OR EV5 MORE1 BY SECT>IAN CONSID]ATIONS 7E4G41 :E!R A P]SON IS A MEMB] ( A ,SUNNI1 ,%IA1 ,ALAWITE1 ,DRUZE1 ,*RI/IAN1 OR ,JEWI% COMMUNITY7 ?AN BY NATIONALI/IC COMMITM5TS TO ! NATIONS ( :I* !Y >E A P>T4 

,I,I,I4 ,! ,SYRIAN ,REVOLUTION 

  

,! ,SYRIAN REVOLUTION BROKE \T 9 ,M>* ( #b#a#a1 AS A L>GELY SPONTANE\S MOVEM5T AMONG ! MIDDLE & L[] CLASSES ( ,SYRIA1 PRIM>ILY Y\NG1 & PRIM>ILY1 AL?\< NOT EXCLUSIVELY1 URBAN4 ,IT BEGAN 9 ,D>'A1 9 S\!RN ,SYRIA1 & = MANY MON?S GREW 9 MILITANCY1 SIZE1 & SCOPE ON A NONVIOL5T BASIS3 SIT-9S1 MASS DEMON/RATIONS1 & L& OCCUPATIONS4 ,ITS MA9 DEM&S C5T]$ ON ! IMM$IATE NE$S ( ! PEOPLE1 PRIM>ILY = JOBS1 & ! NE$ TO SET ! /AGE = A TRANSITION TO A MORE DEMOCRATIC POLITICAL SY/EM AFT] ?REE DECADES ( A BRUTAL DICTATOR%IP UND] ! ,ASSADS4  

,! ,ASSAD DYNA/Y WAS E/ABLI%$ BY ,HAFEZ AL-,ASSAD1 :O ROSE TO P[] ?R\< ! ,SYRIAN ,AIR ,=CE1 ! ,SYRIAN W+ ( ! ,>AB ,SOCIALI/ ,BA'A?I/ ,P>TY1 & ! GOV]NM5T4 ,9VOLV$ 9 SEV]AL C\PS1 ?R\< :I* ! ,BA'A? P>TY 79 #a#i#f#c7 & HE HIMSELF 79 #a#i#g#a7 GA9$ FULL P[]1 ,ASSAD S]V$ AS ,M9I/] ( ,DEF5SE1 ,PRIME ,M9I/]1 &1 ULTIMATELY1 ,PRESID5T4 7,AL?\<1 UND] ! CON/ITUTION PROMULGAT$ BY ,ASSAD 9 #a#i#g#c1 ! PRESID5T IS ELECT$ BY ! ,SYRIAN POPULATION EV]Y SEV5 YE>S1 !RE HAS USUALLY BE5 ONLY ONE C&IDATE ON ! BALLOT47 ,UPON ! ELD] ,ASSAD'S DEA? 9 #b1 HIS SON1 ,BA%>1 /OOD = ELECTION1 WON1 & WAS REELECT$ 9 #b#g4 

,AL?\< ! ,SYRIAN GOV]NM5T IS TE*NICALLY A REPUBLIC1 IT IS ACTUALLY DESPOTICALLY RUL$ BY ! ,>AB ,SOCIALI/ ,BA'A? ,P>TY1 :I* HEADS AN ALLIANCE ( SIX O!R P>TIES 9 ! ,PROGRESSIVE ,NATIONAL ,FRONT & DOM9ATES ! C\NTRY'S RUBB]/AMP UNICAM]AL LEGISLATURE4 70,BA'A?0 MEANS 0RESURRECTION0 OR 0R5AISSANCE0 9 ,>ABIC47 ,! P>TY1 ) BRAN*ES 9 ,SYRIA1 ,LEBANON1 ,JORDAN1 & ,IRAQ1 WAS F\ND$ 9 #aidg BY SECUL> MEMB]S ( ! MIDDLE CLASSES AS AN EXPRESSION ( ,>AB NATIONALISM & WAS EMBRAC$ BY JUNIOR MILIT>Y (FIC]S1 9CLUD+ ! ELD] ,ASSAD1 9 ! #eS & #fS4 ,AMONG ! C5TRAL ASPECTS ( ! ,BA'A?I/ PROGRAM W]E_/>E3 ANTI-,ZIONISM_/ANTI-IMP]IALISM1 SECUL>ISM1 SOCIALISM 7MEAN+ /ATE [N]%IP ( MU* ( ! ECONOMY1 C5TRAL PLANN+1 & .<ESS5TIALLY.> ONE-P>TY RULE71 & A COMMITM5T TO A VAGUELY-DEF9$ 0PAN-,>ABISM40 ,DESPITE ?IS PROGRAM1 ! ,ASSAD REGIME BASES ITSELF 9T]NALLY ON ! MEMB]S ( ! ,ALAWITE SECT ( ,ISLAM 7AN (F%OOT ( ! ,%I'A71 TO :I* ! ,ASSADS BELONG4 ,MO/ MEMB]S ( ! GOV]NM5T 9N] CIRCLE1 AS WELL AS OCCUPI]S ( LEAD]%IP PO/S 9 ! ,BA'A? P>TY & ! ECONOMY1 >E MEMB]S ( ?IS SECT1 :I* HAS ?US BE5 ELEVAT$ 9TO A PRIVILEG$ /RATUM ?AT RULES OV] A MAJORITY 7#g#f.07 ,SUNNI POPULATION4  

,DOME/ICALLY1 ,ASSAD S\<T TO SECUL>IZE & MOD]NIZE ! C\NTRY BY1 = EXAMPLE1 GRANT+ MORE RI<TS TO WOM51 EXP&+ $UCATION1 & BUILD+ ,SYRIA'S 9FRA/RUCTURE ?R\< PUBLIC WORKS PROJECTS F9ANC$ BY ! ,RUSSIANS1 O!R ,>AB GOV]NM5TS1 & 9T]NATIONAL L5D+ AG5CIES4 ,HE ALSO RU?LESSLY SUPPRESS$ OPPOSITION BY IMPRISON+1 TORTUR+1 & KILL+ DISSID5TS1 &1 9 #a#i#h1 BY CRU%+ A ,MUSLIM ,BRO!RHOOD-ORGANIZ$ UPRIS+ & SLAU<T]+ UP TO #b#e1 PEOPLE4  

,9T]NATIONALLY1 ,ASSAD1 AS M5TION$ ABOVE1 ALIGN$ HIMSELF ) ! ,RUSSIANS & S\<T TO PRES5T HIMSELF AS ANTI-,ZIONI/1 PRO-,PALE/9IAN1 & A LEAD] ( ! ,>AB WORLD4 ,AS DEF5SE M9I/] UND] A CIVILIAN ,BA'A?I/ GOV]NM5T1 HE PRESID$ OV] A W> ) ,ISRAEL 7! SO-CALL$ 0,SIX ,DAY ,W>07 9 #a#i#f#g1 & AFT] SEIZ+ FULL P[] 9 #a#i#g#a1 ANO!R CONFLICT 7KN[N AS ! 0,YOM ,KIPPUR ,W>0 9 ,ISRAEL & ! 0,RAMADAN ,W>0 9 ! ,>AB WORLD7 9 #a#i#g#c4 ,BO? ( !SE RESULT$ 9 SUB/ANTIAL VICTORIES = ,ISRAEL & A SIGNIFICANT EXPANSION ( ,ISRAELI-OCCUPI$ T]RITORY1 9CLUD+ ! ,GOLAN ,HEI<TS 7:I* HAD PREVI\SLY BE5 UND] ,SYRIAN CONTROL71 ! ,WE/ ,BANK1 ! ,GAZA ,/RIP1 & ! ,S9AI ,P59SULA 7:I* WAS EV5TUALLY GIV5 BACK TO ! ,EGYPTIANS74 ,9 ! FACE ( ! ,ISRAELIS' OV]:ELM+ MILIT>Y SUP]IORITY1 ,ASSAD %IFT$ HIS ATT5TION TO ,LEBANON1 9T]V5+ 9 ?AT C\NTRY TO DEF5D ,PALE/9IAN GU]RILLAS & NONCOMBATANT REFUGEES FROM P]IODIC ,ISRAELI 9VASIONS & TO MA9TA9 ,SYRIAN HEGEMONY OV] ! SECT-DIVID$ NATION4 ,ULTIMATELY 79 #a#i#h#b71 ,SYRIA OCCUPI$ ! 5TIRE C\NTRY1 AN OCCUPATION ?AT 5D$ ONLY 9 #b#e4 ,ASSAD'S 9VOLVEM5T 9 ,LEBANON 7BO? DIRECTLY & ?R\< ITS SPONSOR%IP ( ! ,%IA-BAS$ ,HEZBOLLAH MILITIA7 ?US S]V$ AS A K9D ( PROXY W> ) ,ISRAEL1 :ILE HE ACCEPT$ A DE FACTO MILIT>Y TRUCE ) ?AT C\NTRY4 

,9 FACT1 = ,ASSAD1 ,SYRIAN NATIONAL1 & EV5 N>R[LY ,%I'A1 9T]E/S ALWAYS TRUMP$ PAN-,>ABISM4 ,?US1 :5 HE P]CEIV$ ?OSE 9T]E/S TO BE ?REAT5$ BY ! ,IRAQI REGIME ( FELL[-,BA'A?I/ 7BUT ,SUNNI71 ,SADDAM ,HUSSE91 ,ASSAD SUPPORT$ 7,%I-ITE1 NON-,>AB7 ,IRAN 9 ! ,IRAN-,IRAQ W> 7#a#i#h-#h#i71 & 9 #a#i#i1 ! ,U,S W> AGA9/ ,IRAQ4 ,LAT]1 ,BA%> ,ASSAD OPPOS$ ! ,U,S 9VASION ( ,IRAQ1 :I* L$ TO ! IMPOSITION ( SANCTIONS BY ! ,UNIT$ ,/ATES & ITS ALLIES4 ,DOME/ICALLY1 ,BA%> ATTEMPT$ TO CONT9UE ! MOD]NIZATION ( ! C\NTRY BY1 = EXAMPLE1 LOOS5+ UP GOV]NM5T CONTROL & ALL[+ PRIVATE 5T]PRISE 9 BANK+ & O!R SECTORS ( ! ECONOMY4 ,MORE REC5TLY1 HE TRI$ TO A*IEVE A RAPPRO*EM5T ) ,U,S IMP]IALISM1 BY1 AMONG O!R ?+S1 )DRAW+ FROM ,LEBANON4 ,TWO RESULTS ( !SE POLICIES W]E A DRA/IC 9CREASE 9 CORRUPTION & AN 9T5SIFICATION ( ! DESIRE ( ! ,SYRIAN POPULATION = GREAT] POLITICAL FRE$OM4  

,:ILE ! /RUGGLE 9 ,SYRIA BEGAN ON A NONVIOL5T BASIS & EV5TUALLY MOBILIZ$ SIGNIFICANT SECTORS ( ! ,SYRIAN PEOPLE1 ! AGGRESSIVE1 EXTREMELY BRUTAL RESPONSE ( ! GOV]NM5T =C$ ! OPPOSITION TO >M ITSELF4 ,ONE RESULT ( ?IS HAS BE5 ! MILIT>IZATION ( ! /RUGGLE4 ,?IS HAS =C$ ! UN>M$ MASSES ( PEOPLE TO ! SIDEL9ES 7& 9TO REFUGEE CAMPS 9 ,TURKEY1 ,JORDAN & ,LEBANON7 & TURN$ :AT HAD BE5 A POPUL> REVOLUTION 9TO A CIVIL W> BETWE5 ! ,SYRIAN GOV]NM5T1 BACK$ BY ! ,ALAWITE M9ORITY1 ON ! ONE H&1 & OPPOSITION MILITIAS1 SUPPORT$ BY ! ,SUNNI MAJORITY1 ON ! O!R4 ,DESPITE GREAT ODDS1 9CLUD+ BRUTAL A]IAL BOMB>DM5T & ! LIKELY USE ( *EMICAL WEAPONS ON ! P>T ( ! REGIME1 ! REBEL =CES1 EV5TUALLY & = ! MO/ P>T ORGANIZ$ UND] ! BANN] ( ! ,FREE ,SYRIAN ,>MY1 PUT ! REGIME ONTO ! DEF5SIVE & =C$ IT 9TO EV]-SMALL] PIECES ( T]RITORY4  

,UN=TUNATELY1 ! MILIT>IZATION ( ! /RUGGLE & ITS PROTRACT$ NATURE HAVE 9CREAS+LY 9T]NATIONALIZ$ ! CONFLICT4 ,AT FIR/1 ?IS WAS L>GELY A QUE/ION ( \TSIDE COMM&O =CES1 SU* AS ! ,SUNNI FUNDAM5TALI/ MILITIA1 ,AL ,QA$A 9 ,IRAQ1 JO9+ ! FI<T+ ON ! SIDE ( ! REBELS4 ,SOME:AT LAT]1 ! CONFLICT ON ! BORD] ) ,TURKEY W\ND UP DRAW+ A RESPONSE FROM ! ,TURKI% MILIT>Y4 ,MEAN:ILE1 AS ! ,RUSSIANS HAVE /EPP$ UP !IR MILIT>Y AID TO ! ,ASSAD REGIME1 ! ,ISRAELIS1 CONC]N$ ?AT MISSILES BE+ S5T TO ! GOV]NM5T MI<T W9D UP BE+ US$ AGA9/ ITSELF1 LAUN*$ MISSILE /RIKES 9TO ,SYRIA4 ,MO/ REC5TLY1 ,HEZBOLLAH1 WORRI$ AB\T ! EV5TUAL DEFEAT ( ITS ,SYRIAN PATRON & A VICTORY = ! ,SUNNI MAJORITY1 HAS S5T ITS [N WELL-TRA9$ MILIT>Y =CES 9TO ! FRAY4 ,!IR PRES5CE1 IT SEEMS1 WAS CRUCIAL TO ! REC5T GOV]NM5T VICTORY 9 RETAK+ ! BORD] T[N ( AL-,QUSAYR FROM ! REBELS4  

,AL?\< FROM E>LY ON1 ! ,UNIT$ ,/ATES HAS V]BALLY & DIPLOMATICALLY 9DICAT$ ITS SUPPORT ( ! /RUGGLE AGA9/ ! ,ASSAD REGIME1 IT IS NOT CLE> H[ MU* ?IS POLICY HAS BE5 MOTIVAT$ BY A S]I\S COMMITM5T TO ! REBELS & H[ MU* BY ! NE$ TO PROTECT ITS IMAGE AS ! PROMOT] ( B\RGEOIS DEMOCRACY1 BO? 9 ! REGION & 9T]NATIONALLY4 ,! ,U,S RUL+ CLASS HAS ALWAYS BE5 EXTREMELY W>Y ( MASS /RUGGLE1 L>GE NUMB]S ( L[] CLASS PEOPLE MOBILIZ+ TO FI<T = !IR NE$S4 ,SU* MASSES CAN EASILY 0GET \T ( CONTROL10 ?AT IS1 FALL UND] ! 9FLU5CE ( 0IRRESPONSIBLE0 =CES1 AB&ON NONVIOL5T /RUGGLE1 & ?REAT5 POLITICAL OV]TURNS ?AT >E 9IMICAL TO ! ,U,S'S IMP]IALI/ 9T]E/S4 ,= ?IS REASON1 ! ,U,S ALMO/ ALWAYS PREF]S TO SEE V]Y SL[1 V]Y MOD]ATE1 & V]Y PEACEFUL POLITICAL *ANGE1 PREF]ABLY UND] ! TUTELAGE ( ONE OR MORE \TSIDE 7READ 0IMP]IALI/07 C\NTRY4 ,?IS IS ! CASE EV5 :51 ALL O!R ?+S BE+ EQUAL1 ! ,U,S IMP]IALI/S W\LD PREF] TO SEE A PRO-,WE/]N1 DEMOCRATIC REGIME 9 P[] 9 ,SYRIA 9 PLACE ( ! UNPR$ICTABLE1 & (T5 ANTI-,U,S1 ,ASSAD DICTATOR%IP4 ,ALONG ) ! W>-WE>9ESS ( ! ,U,S POPULATION & ! FISCAL NE$ TO CUT ! ,U,S MILIT>Y BUDGET1 IT IS ?IS ?AT EXPLA9S ! TEPID1 VACILLAT+ NATURE ( ! ,UNIT$ ,/ATES' RESPONSE TO ! ,SYRIAN /RUGGLE4 ,PROBABLY MO/ IMPORTANT 9 H9DSI<T1 ! ,U,S1 FE>+ ! ESCALATION ( VIOL5CE 7& WORRI$ AB\T WEAPONS GETT+ 9TO ! H&S ( FUNDAM5TALI/ MILITIAS71 HESITAT$ TO SUPPLY >MS TO ! REBELS1 LET ALONE TAKE /RONG] MEASURES1 SU* AS E/ABLI%+ A NO-FLY ZONE TO PROTECT ! REBEL =CES FROM ,ASSAD'S A]IAL BOMB>DM5T4 ,MEAN:ILE1 ! ,RUSSIAN1 ! ,IRANIAN1 & ! ,*9ESE GOV]NM5TS HAVE HAD FEW] SCRUPLES1 US+ !IR DIPLOMATIC LEV]AGE TO SUPPORT ! ,ASSAD REGIME &1 AT LEA/ 9 ! CASE ( ! ,RUSSIANS & ,IRANIANS1 SUPPLY+ >M$ =CES & WEAPONS TO ! ,SYRIAN MILIT>Y4 ,! RESULT IS ?AT ! ,UNIT$ ,/ATES N[ F9DS ITSELF BEH9D ! #h-BALL4 ,AS WE WRITE ?IS1 ! ,OBAMA ADM9I/RATION1 CIT+ ! ,ASSAD GOV]NM5T'S USE ( *EMICAL WEAPONS AS ITS RATIONALE1 HAS DECID$ TO S5D SOME WEAPONS 7MO/LY SMALL >MS & P]HAPS SOME ANTI-TANK GUNS7 TO ! REBELS4 ,?IS IS NOT LIKELY TO MAKE MU* ( A DIFF]5CE TO ! \TCOME ( ! /RUGGLE4  

,TO MAKE MATT]S WORSE1 ! /RUGGLE 9 ,SYRIA N[ SEEMS TO BE SPILL+ OV] 9TO ,LEBANON1 AS ,%IA MILITIAS !RE 7P]HAPS UND] DIRECTIVE FROM ,ASSAD7 HAVE BEGUN FIR+ 9TO ,SUNNI COMMUNITIES1 ) ,SUNNI MILITIAS RETURN+ FIRE4 ,!RE HAVE ALSO BE5 EX*ANGES ( GUNFIRE ACROSS ! ,SYRIAN-,ISRAELI BORD]4 ,ONE POSSIBLE RESULT ( ALL ?IS IS ?AT ! ,SYRIAN /RUGGLE1 :I* BEGAN AS A POPUL> REBELLION AGA9/ A BRUTAL DICTATOR%IP1 MAY ESCALATE 9TO A REGION-WIDE CONFLICT1 A PROXY W> 9 :I* ! MAJOR P[]S L9E UP BEH9D ! OPPOS+ 7SECT>IAN7 =CES4 ,SU* AN ESCALATION1 IF LEFT UN*ECK$1 C\LD ?REAT5 AN EV5 BIGG] CONFLAGRATION4  
  
,I,V4 ,\R ,POSITION 

  

,9 LI<T ( ?IS COMPLEX & RAPIDLY DEVELOP+ SITUATION1 :AT POSITION %\LD AN>*I/S TAKE8  

,\R [N VIEW IS ?AT WE %\LD SEE ! CONFLICT 9 ,SYRIA AS /ILL BE+ PR$OM9ANTLY A POPUL> REVOLUTION 9 :I* ! MAJORITY ( ! ,SYRIAN PEOPLE >E FI<T+ AGA9/ AN >BITR>Y DICTATOR%IP4 ,! OV]?R[ ( ?AT REGIME W\LD BE A VICTORY = ! ,SYRIAN PEOPLE4 ,IT W\LD ALSO CREATE A SITUATION :I*1 H[EV] TEMPOR>Y IT MI<T BE1 W\LD GIVE ! ,SYRIAN WORK]S & PEASANTS1 AS WELL AS CONSCI\SLY LIB]T>IAN =CES1 ! OPPORTUNITY TO PURSUE ! /RUGGLE = REAL FRE$OM4 ,WE ADVOCATE ?IS POSITION 9 SPITE ( ! FACT ?AT ! ,UNIT$ ,/ATES & ITS ALLIES 9 ,WE/]N ,EUROPE & ELSE:]E HAVE GIV5 DIPLOMATIC SUPPORT1 HUMANIT>IAN AID1 & N[ >MS1 TO ! REBELS4 ,:ILE WE NEV] FEEL COM=TABLE BE+ ON ! SAME SIDE AS ! ,UNIT$ ,/ATES1 WE DO NOT SEE ! REBELS AS M]E PROXIES = ! IMP]IALI/S1 UND] !IR CONTROL & DEP5D5T ON !M F9ANCIALLY4 ,P>TICUL>LY BECAUSE ( ! HESITANCY ( ! ,U,S TO GET 9VOLV$ & DESPITE ! PRES5CE 9 !IR RANKS ( ,SYRIAN & =EIGN ,ISLAMIC FUNDAM5TALI/ MILITIAS1 ! REBEL >MIES /ILL APPE> TO BE 9DEP5D5T1 POPUL> =CES & !RE=E WOR?Y ( SUPPORT4  

,YET1 9 SUPPORT+ ! ,SYRIAN REBELS1 IT IS IMPORTANT TO CL>IFY :AT K9D ( SUPPORT WE >E TALK+ AB\T4 ,AS F> AS WE CAN TELL1 ! LEAD]%IP ( ! /RUGGLE 9 ,SYRIA IS MADE UP ( A COMB9ATION ( PRO-,WE/]N LIB]ALS1 MOD]ATE ,ISLAMIC ORGANIZATIONS1 & FUNDAM5TALI/ ,ISLAMIC MILITIAS4 7,& AS ! FI<T+ CONT9UES1 IT IS LIKELY ?AT ! FUNDAM5TALI/S WILL 9CREAS+LY DOM9ATE ! REBEL COALITION4 ,SOME ( !SE =CES >E FI]CELY AU?ORIT>IAN & W\LD BE EV5 WORSE ?AN ! ,ASSAD REGIME 9 :ATEV] >EA !Y C\LD E/ABLI% P[]7 ,NONE ( !SE =CES 9 ANY S]I\S S5SE REPRES5TS ! PEOPLE4 ,9 O!R WORDS1 RA!R ?AN AIM+ AT A REVOLUTION ?AT OV]TURNS HI]>*ICAL P[] RELATIONS & E/ABLI%ES ! DEMOCRATIC1 EGALIT>IAN RULE ( ! L[] CLASSES1 !Y AIM SIMPLY TO SET UP SOME K9D ( TRADITIONAL1 CLASS-BAS$ GOV]NM5T -- A ,U,S-/YLE B\RGEOIS DEMOCRACY1 A MOD]ATE ,ISLAMIC REGIME1 OR A FUNDAM5TALI/ !OCRACY -- :ILE MA9TA9+ ! EXI/+ CLASS /RUCTURE ( ,SYRIA 9TACT4 ,?US1 :ILE WE FAVOR ! OV]?R[ ( ! ,ASSAD REGIME1 WE DO NOT WI% TO SPREAD ILLUSIONS AB\T :AT ! OPPOSITION LEAD]S' GOALS >E1 :AT K9D ( SOCIETIES !Y WI% TO E/ABLI%1 & :OM !Y REALLY REPRES5T4 ,! TACTICS WE ADVOCATE ( 9DEP5D5T 9T]V5TION & TACTICAL BLOCS 5ABLES US TO DO ?IS4 

,IF AN>*I/S HAD A SIGNIFICANT PRES5CE 9 ,SYRIA TODAY WE %\LD SIMULTANE\SLY ATTEMPT TO COORD9ATE \R ACTIVITY 79CLUD+ MILIT>Y ACTIONS1 IF WE HAD FI<T+ =CES7 ) ! POLITICAL ORGANIZATIONS & >M$ =CES ( ! O!R ANTI-,ASSAD ORGANIZATIONS1 :ILE C>RY+ \T \R [N 9DEP5D5T PROPAG&A & AGITATION AMONG ! L[] CLASSES4 ,?IS PROPAG&A & AGITATION W\LD EXPLA9 ?AT1 :ILE !Y1 TOO1 %\LD BE FI<T+ ALONGSIDE ! B\RGEOIS =CES ?AT >E CURR5TLY LEAD+ ! /RUGGLE1 !Y %\LD HAVE NO ILLUSIONS 9 :AT ?OSE =CES REPRES5T4 ,9/EAD1 !Y %\LD UTILIZE ! /RUGGLE TO ORGANIZE TO TAKE P[] = !MSELVES1 ?AT IS1 TO SET UP POPUL> C\NCILS & O!R MASS DEMOCRATIC /RUCTURES TO RUN !IR COMMUNITIES1 ! 5T]PRISES 9 :I* !Y WORK1 & ,SYRIAN SOCIETY AS A :OLE4 ,?US1 ASSUM+ ?AT ! REBEL =CES >E VICTORI\S AGA9/ ,ASSAD1 WE & ! POPUL> CLASSES W\LD BE 9 A /RONG POSITION TO CONT9UE ! FI<T = A TRUE SOCIAL REVOLUTION UND] :ATEV] TRANSITIONAL GOV]NM5T IS SET UP 9 ! AFT]MA? ( ! >M$ CONFLICT4  

,9 SUM1 :AT WE >E PROPOS+ AM\NTS TO SEEK+ TO E/ABLI% A TACTICAL BLOC ) ! O!R =CES 9VOLV$ 9 ! /RUGGLE AGA9/ ! ,ASSAD REGIME :ILE MA9TA9+ \R [N 9DEP5D5T ORGANIZATIONS & C>RY+ \T 9DEP5D5T ACTIVITY TO FOM5T AN>*I/ REVOLUTION4 ,?IS 9CLUDES EXPOS+ ! B\RGEOIS1 NON-POPUL> NATURE ( ! GR\PS ) :OM WE >E 9 A TEMPOR>Y ALLIANCE4 

,IF WE DO NOT ADVOCATE ?IS APPROA*1 OR SOME?+ LIKE IT1 WE >E LEFT TO *OOSE 7& P]HAPS TO VACILLATE7 BETWE5 TWO O!R POLICIES1 NEI!R ( :I* IS SATISFACTORY4 ,ONE W\LD BE TO GIVE FULL 7MILIT>Y & POLITICAL7 SUPPORT TO ! REBEL =CES1 :I* RUNS ! DANG] ( SPREAD+ ILLUSIONS AB\T !M1 ?US DISORI5T+ ! POPUL> CLASSES 9 ! AFT]MA? ( ! MILIT>Y /RUGGLE4 ,! O!R W\LD BE TO ADOPT A 0PLAGUE ON BO? Y\R H\SES0 APPROA*1 :I* W\LD MEAN ATTEMPT+ TO REMA9 NEUTRAL BETWE5 ! PRO- & ANTI-,ASSAD =CES & ALL[+ ! MILIT>Y /RUGGLE TO PLAY \T )\T AN>*I/ 9T]V5TION4 ,AT LEA/ AT ?IS JUNCTURE1 WE %\LD PREF] A POLICY ?AT W\LD 5ABLE US TO 9T]V5E 9 ! /RUGGLE ON ! SIDE ( ! ANTI-,ASSAD =CES1 :ILE CONT9U+ TO ADVOCATE & ORGANIZE = AN AN>*I/ REVOLUTION4  

,= ?OSE ( US F> AWAY FROM ! FRONTL9ES1 ! SAME G5]AL APPROA* APPLIES4 

,FIR/1 WE %\LD ATTEMPT TO AL]T \R FRI5DS1 FAMILY1 C[ORK]S1 & COMRADES TO ! IMPORTANT /RUGGLE UND]WAY 9 ,SYRIA4 ,WE %\LD PROMOTE & CIRCULATE ANTI-AU?ORIT>IAN NEWS COV]AGE1 ANALYSIS1 & REQUE/S = SOLID>ITY1 ESPECIALLY FROM AN>*I/S & ANTI-AU?ORIT>IANS 9 ,SYRIA & ! ,MIDDLE ,EA/4 ,WE %\LD >GUE AGA9/ ?OSE ACTIVI/S :O UPHOLD ! ,ASSAD REGIME AS SOME SORT ( PR9CIPL$ ANTI-IMP]IALI/ =CE OR UNSELFI% FRI5D ( ! ,PALE/9IANS4 

,:]E POSSIBLE 7& FEASIBLE1 GIV5 \R SMALL NUMB]S & COMPET+ PRIORITIES7 WE %\LD JO9 PROTE/ MOVEM5TS & SOLID>ITY CAMPAIGNS 9 SUPPORT ( ! REVOLUTION 9 ,SYRIA4 ,AN>*I/S %\LD BE CON/RUCTIVE P>TICIPANTS 9 !SE MOVEM5TS :ILE ALSO ADVOCAT+ \R SPECIFIC CONC]NS & VISION4 ,:ILE DEF5D+ ! REBELS RI<T TO OBTA9 WEAPONS BY ANY MEANS NECESS>Y1 WE %\LD EXPOSE ! MOTIVES (1 & >GUE AGA9/ ANY RELIANCE ON ! ,U4,S41 O!R ,WE/]N P[]S1 OR ! RI* ,GULF /ATES4 ,WE %\LD OPPOSE AU?ORIT>IAN FUNDAM5TALISM1 P>TICUL>LY ! REACTION>Y SEXI/ & SECT>IAN POLITICS1 :ILE ALSO DEF5D+ ! RI<TS ( RELIGI\S ,MUSLIMS TO ORGANIZE !MSELVES & P>TICIPATE 9 ! MOVEM5T4 

,AS 9 ALL ! MOVEM5TS WE P>TICIPATE 9 WE %\LD ADVOCATE = GRASSROOTS DEMOCRACY1 DIRECT ACTION1 & SOLID>ITY ) O!R /RUGGLES & OPPOSE HI]>*AL CONTROL1 LEGALI/IC /RATEGY1 & PROTECTIVE ISOLATION4 ,9 ALL \R WORK WE %\LD SEEK TO MAKE ANTI-AU?ORIT>IAN REVOLUTION A POLE ( DISCUSSION1 ACTION & 9T]E/4  

,9CREAS+LY1 :AT IS MISS+ IS ! 9DEP5D5T1 SELF-ORGANIZATION ( POPUL> RESI/ANCE4 ,?IS IS :AT MADE ! ,>AB ,SPR+ & HAD AN EFFECT ALL OV] ! WORLD4 ,)\T AN 9DEP5D5T EXPRESSION ( ?IS POPUL> RESI/ANCE1 WE FE> ! 5]GY ( ! PA/ #c YE>S WILL BE *ANNEL$ 9TO MILIT>Y OR FUNDAM5TALI/ APPROA*ES4 ,ACROSS ! REGION1 FROM ,SYRIA TO ,EGYPT1 ! RADICAL & DEMOCRATIC CURR5TS FROM BEL[ HAVE NOT BE5 ABLE TO SU/A9 !MSELVES BECAUSE ( ! 9ABILITY TO >TICULATE & GA9 WIDE SUPPORT ORGANIZATIONALLY & POLITICALLY4 

,IF ! ,SYRIAN REBELS BECOME DOM9AT$ BY AU?ORIT>IAN FUNDAM5TALI/ =CES OR IF ! /RUGGLE DOES1 9 FACT1 TURN 9TO A REGION-WIDE CONFLICT BETWE5 =CES BACK$ BY ! ,UNIT$ ,/ATES1 ! ,EUROPEAN NATIONS1 & ,ISRAEL1 & ?OSE SUPPORT$ BY ,RUSSIA1 ,*9A1 & ,IRAN1 WE MI<T HAVE TO CONSID] ADOPT+ AN ALT]NATE POSITION4 ,BUT1 = ! MOM5T1 & BAS$ ON ! 9=MATION WE HAVE1 ?IS IS ! POSITION WE %\LD ADVOCATE4  

,AT ! MOM5T WE PUBLI%1 !RE HAS BE5 A DRAMATIC URG+ = ATTACK ON ! ,ASSAD GOV]NM5T AFT] REC5T *EMICAL WEAPONS USE 9 ! ,DAMASCUS SUBURB ( ,<\TA4 ,ALL SIDES >E 9 DISPUTE OV] RESPONSIBILITY = ! ATTACK1 ) ! ,ASSAD GOV]NM5T BLAM+ ! REBELS & ! REBELS & ! ,U,S BLAM+ ,ASSAD4 ,) ! LIMIT$ 9=MATION WE HAVE1 WE ?9K IT QUITE LIKELY ?AT ,ASSAD WAS RESPONSIBLE4 ,NONE!LESS1 WE ?9K IT IS A MI/AKE TO CALL = OR SUPPORT MILIT>Y 9T]V5TION-EI!R LIMIT$ OR BROAD-BY ! ,U,S OR ITS ALLIES4 ,ANY AIR/RIKE BY ! ,U,S OR ITS ALLIES WILL ONLY S]VE TO DISORI5T ! POPUL> ,SYRIAN REVOLUTION1 %IFT+ ! C5TRALITY ( ! UPRIS+ FROM DOME/IC OPPOSITION TO ?AT ( A ,WE/]N IMP]IAL EF=T4 ,! ,U,S_/,WE/]N AIM1 OBVI\SLY1 IS TO CONTROL & LIMIT ! REVOLUTION1 MAKE SURE ANY NEW GOV]NM5T FOLL[S PRO-,WE/]N POLICIES1 & ?AT P[] WILL BE 9 ! H&S ( PRO-,WE/]N ELITES & NOT ! PEOPLE4 ,9 PLACE ( CALL+ = OR RELY+ ON ,WE/]N 9T]V5TION1 ! REBELS %\LD BE DEM&+ >MS ) NO /R+S ATTA*$1 %\LD MILITANTLY OPPOSE 9T]V5TION 9 ,SYRIA UND] :ATEV] PRETEXT1 & %\LD RESOLUTELY RESI/ EF=TS BY \TSIDE =CES TO EX]T ANY K9D ( CONTROL OV] !IR REVOLUTION4  
  

7,S\RCE3 ,RETRIEV$ ON #f? ,M>* #bba FROM LIBCOM4ORG47 

,FROM 3 ,!,AN>*I/,LIBR>Y4ORG4 

,*RONOLOGY 3 
,JANU>Y #a#e1 #bbb 3 ,T[>D AN ,AN>*I/ ,POLICY ON ,SYRIA -- ,ADD$4 

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