,! ,?REAT TO ,ROJAVA 

,PEOPLE 3 

,AU?OR 3 ,CRIME?,9C4 

,TEXT 3 

,I'M WRIT+ FROM ,ROJAVA4 ,FULL DISCLOSURE3 ,I DIDN'T GR[ UP H]E & ,I DON'T HAVE ACCESS TO ALL ! 9=MATION ,I W\LD NE$ TO TELL Y\ :AT IS GO+ TO HAPP5 NEXT 9 ?IS P>T ( ! WORLD ) ANY C]TA9TY4 ,I'M WRIT+ BECAUSE IT IS URG5T ?AT Y\ HE> FROM PEOPLE 9 NOR!RN ,SYRIA AB\T :AT ,TRUMP'S 0TROOP )DRAWAL0 REALLY MEANS = US--& IT'S NOT CLE> H[ MU* TIME WE HAVE LEFT TO DISCUSS IT4 ,I APPROA* ?IS TASK ) ALL ! HUMILITY AT MY DISPOSAL4 

,I'M NOT =MALLY 9TEGRAT$ 9TO ANY ( ! GR\PS H]E4 ,?AT MAKES IT POSSIBLE = ME TO SPEAK FREELY1 BUT ,I %\LD EMPHASIZE ?AT MY P]SPECTIVE DOESN'T REPRES5T ANY 9/ITUTIONAL POSITION4 ,IF NO?+ ELSE1 ?IS %\LD BE USEFUL AS A HI/ORICAL DOCUM5T 9DICAT+ H[ SOME PEOPLE H]E UND]/OOD ! SITUATION AT ?IS PO9T 9 TIME1 9 CASE IT BECOMES IMPOSSIBLE TO ASK US LAT] ON4 

,TRUMP'S DECISION TO )DRAW TROOPS FROM ,SYRIA IS NOT AN 0ANTI-W>0 OR 0ANTI-IMP]IALI/0 MEASURE4 ,IT WILL NOT BR+ ! CONFLICT 9 ,SYRIA TO AN 5D4 ,ON ! CONTR>Y1 ,TRUMP IS EFFECTIVELY GIV+ ,TURKI% ,PRESID5T ,TAYYIP ,]DOGAN ! GO-AHEAD TO 9VADE ,ROJAVA & C>RY \T E?NIC CLEANS+ AGA9/ ! PEOPLE :O HAVE DONE MU* ( ! FI<T+ & DY+ TO HALT ! RISE ( ! ,ISLAMIC ,/ATE 7,I,S,I,S74 ,?IS IS A DEAL BETWE5 /RONGM5 TO EXT]M9ATE ! SOCIAL EXP]IM5T 9 ,ROJAVA & CONSOLIDATE AU?ORIT>IAN NATIONALI/ POLITICS FROM ,WA%+TON1 ,D,C TO ,I/ANBUL & ,KOBANE4 ,TRUMP AIMS TO LEAVE ,ISRAEL ! MO/ O/5SIBLY LIB]AL & DEMOCRATIC PROJECT 9 ! 5TIRE ,MIDDLE ,EA/1 =ECLOS+ ! POSSIBILITIES ?AT ! REVOLUTION 9 ,ROJAVA OP5$ UP = ?IS P>T ( ! WORLD4 

,ALL ?IS WILL COME AT A TREM5D\S CO/4 ,AS BLOODY & TRAGIC AS ! ,SYRIAN CIVIL W> HAS ALREADY BE51 ?IS C\LD OP5 UP NOT JU/ A NEW *APT] ( IT1 BUT A SEQUEL4 

,?IS IS NOT AB\T :]E ,U,S TROOPS >E /ATION$4 ,! TWO ?\S& ,U,S SOLDI]S AT ISSUE >E A DROP 9 ! BUCKET 9 T]MS ( ! NUMB] ( >M$ FI<T]S 9 ,SYRIA TODAY4 ,!Y HAVE NOT BE5 ON ! FRONTL9ES ( ! FI<T+ ! WAY ?AT ! ,U,S MILIT>Y WAS 9 ,IRAQ4.<#a.> ,! )DRAWAL ( !SE SOLDI]S IS NOT ! IMPORTANT ?+ H]E4 ,:AT MATT]S IS ?AT ,TRUMP'S ANN\NCEM5T IS A MESSAGE TO ,]DOGAN 9DICAT+ ?AT !RE WILL BE NO CONSEQU5CES IF ! ,TURKI% /ATE 9VADES ,ROJAVA4 

,!RE'S A LOT ( CONFUSION AB\T ?IS1 ) SUPPOS$ ANTI-W> & 0ANTI-IMP]IALI/0 ACTIVI/S LIKE ,M$EA ,B5JAM9 5DORS+ ,DONALD ,TRUMP'S DECISION1 BLI!LY PUTT+ ! /AMP ( 0PEACE0 ON AN IMP5D+ BLOODBA? & TELL+ ! VICTIMS ?AT !Y %\LD HAVE KN[N BETT]4 ,IT MAKES NO S5SE TO BLAME PEOPLE H]E 9 ,ROJAVA = DEP5D+ ON ! ,UNIT$ ,/ATES :5 NEI!R ,M$EA ,B5JAM9 NOR ANYONE LIKE H] HAS DONE ANY?+ TO (F] !M ANY SORT ( ALT]NATIVE4 

,:ILE AU?ORIT>IANS ( V>I\S /RIPES SEEK TO CL\D ! ISSUE1 GIV+ A ,N,A,T,O MEMB] A GRE5 LI<T TO 9VADE ,SYRIA IS :AT IS 0PRO-W>0 & 0IMP]IALI/40 ,SPEAK+ AS AN AN>*I/1 MY GOAL IS NOT TO TALK AB\T :AT ! ,U,S MILIT>Y %\LD DO4 ,IT IS TO DISCUSS H[ ,U,S MILIT>Y POLICY IMPACTS PEOPLE & H[ WE \<T TO RESPOND4 ,AN>*I/S AIM TO BR+ AB\T ! ABOLITION ( EV]Y /ATE GOV]NM5T & ! DISB&+ ( EV]Y /ATE MILIT>Y 9 FAVOR ( HORIZONTAL =MS ( VOLUNT>Y ORGANIZATION2 BUT :5 WE ORGANIZE 9 SOLID>ITY ) T>GET$ POPULATIONS SU* AS ?OSE :O >E ON ! RECEIV+ 5D ( ! VIOL5CE ( ,I,S,I,S & V>I\S /ATE ACTORS 9 ?IS REGION1 WE (T5 RUN 9TO ?ORNY QUE/IONS LIKE ! ONES ,I'LL DISCUSS BEL[4 

,! WOR/ CASE SC5>IO N[ IS ?AT ! ,TURKI%-BACK$ ,FREE ,SYRIAN ,>MY 7,T,F,S,A71 BACK$ BY ! ,TURKI% MILIT>Y ITSELF1 WILL OV]RUN ,ROJAVA & C>RY \T E?NIC CLEANS+ ON A LEVEL Y\ LIKELY CANNOT IMAG9E4 ,!Y'VE ALREADY DONE ?IS ON A SMALL SCALE 9 ,AFR94 ,9 ,ROJAVA1 ?IS W\LD TAKE PLACE ON A HI/ORIC SCALE4 ,IT C\LD BE SOME?+ LIKE ! ,PALE/9IAN ,NAKBA OR ! ,>M5IAN G5OCIDE4 

,I WILL TRY TO EXPLA9 :Y ?IS IS HAPP5+1 :Y Y\ %\LD C>E AB\T IT1 & :AT WE CAN DO AB\T IT TOGE!R4 

,FIR/ ( ,ALL3 ,AB\T ! ,EXP]IM5T 9 ,ROJAVA 

  

,! SY/EM 9 ,ROJAVA IS NOT P]FECT4 ,?IS IS NOT ! RI<T PLACE TO AIR DIRTY LAUNDRY1 BUT !RE >E LOTS ( PROBLEMS4 ,I'M NOT HAV+ ! K9D ( EXP]I5CE H]E ?AT ,PAUL ,Z4 ,SIMONS HAD SOME YE>S AGO1 :5 HIS VISIT TO ,ROJAVA MADE HIM FEEL ?AT EV]Y?+ IS POSSIBLE4 ,YE>S & YE>S ( W> & MILIT>IZATION HAVE TAK5 !IR TOLL ON ! MO/ EXCIT+ ASPECTS ( ! REVOLUTION H]E4 ,/ILL1 !SE PEOPLE >E 9 9CR$IBLE DANG] RI<T N[ & ! SOCIETY !Y HAVE BUILT IS WOR? DEF5D+4 

,:AT IS HAPP5+ 9 ,ROJAVA IS NOT AN>*Y4 ,ALL ! SAME1 WOM5 PLAY A MAJOR ROLE 9 SOCIETY2 !RE IS BASIC FRE$OM ( RELIGION & LANGUAGE2 AN E?NICALLY1 RELIGI\SLY1 & L+UI/ICALLY DIV]SE POPULATION LIVES SIDE BY SIDE )\T ANY MAJOR ACTS ( E?NIC CLEANS+ OR CONFLICT2 IT'S HEAVILY MILIT>IZ$1 BUT IT'S NOT A POLICE /ATE2 ! COMMUNITIES >E RELATIVELY SAFE & /ABLE2 !RE'S NOT FAM9E OR MASS FOOD 9SECURITY2 ! >M$ =CES >E NOT COMMITT+ MASS ATROCITIES4 ,EV]Y FACTION 9 ?IS W> HAS BLOOD ON ITS H&S1 BUT ! ,PEOPLE'S ,PROTECTION ,UNITS 7,Y,P,G_/,Y,P,J7 HAVE CONDUCT$ !MSELVES F> MORE RESPONSIBLY ?AN ANY O!R SIDE4 ,!Y'VE SAV$ C\NTLESS LIVES--NOT JU/ ,KURDS--9 ,S9J> & MANY O!R PLACES4 ,CONSID]+ ! IMPOSSIBLE CONDITIONS & ! TREM5D\S AM\NT ( VIOL5CE ?AT PEOPLE H]E HAVE BE5 SUBJECT$ TO FROM ALL SIDES1 ?AT IS AN 9CR$IBLE FEAT4 ,ALL ?IS /&S 9 />K CONTRA/ TO :AT WILL HAPP5 IF ! ,TURKI% /ATE 9VADES1 CONSID]+ ?AT ,TRUMP HAS GIV5 ,]DOGAN ! GO-AHEAD 9 RETURN = CLOS+ A MASSIVE MISSILE SALE4 

,IT %\LD GO )\T SAY+ ?AT ,I DON'T WANT TO P]PETUATE AN OP5-5D$ ,BU%-/YLE 0W> ON T]ROR10 MU* LESS TO P>TICIPATE 9 ! SORT ( 0CLA% ( CIVILIZATIONS0 BETWE5 ,ISLAM & ! ,WE/ ?AT BIGOTS & FUNDAM5TALI/S ( BO? /RIPES HAVE BE5 FANTASIZ+ AB\T4 ,ON ! CONTR>Y1 ?AT IS PRECISELY :AT WE'RE TRY+ TO PREV5T H]E4 ,MO/ ( ! PEOPLE ,DAE% .<,I,S,I,S.> HAVE KILL$ HAVE BE5 ,MUSLIM2 MO/ ( ! PEOPLE :O HAVE DI$ FI<T+ ,DAE% HAVE BE5 ,MUSLIM4 ,9 ,HAJ91 :]E ,I WAS /ATION$ & :]E ! LA/ ,I,S,I,S /RON<OLD IS1 ONE ( ! 9T]NATIONALS :O HAS BE5 FI<T+ ,DAE% LONGE/ IS AN OBS]VANT ,MUSLIM--NOT TO SPEAK ( ALL ! PR$OM9ANTLY ,>AB FI<T]S FROM ,DEIR ,EZZOR !RE1 MO/ ( :OM >E ALMO/ C]TA9LY ,MUSLIM AS WELL4 

,! ,FACTIONS 

  

,= ! SAKE ( BREVITY1 ,I'LL OV]SIMPLIFY & SAY ?AT TODAY1 !RE >E R\<LY FIVE SIDES 9 ! ,SYRIAN CIVIL W>3 LOYALI/1 ,TURKI%1 JIHADI1 ,KURDI%1.<#b.> & REBEL4.<#c.> ,AT ! CONCLUSION ( ?IS TEXT1 AN APP5DIX EXPLORES ! N>RATIVES ?AT *>ACT]IZE EA* ( !SE SIDES4 

,EA* ( !SE SIDES /&S 9 DIFF]5T RELATION TO ! O!RS4 ,I'LL LI/ ! RELATIONS ( EA* GR\P TO ! O!RS1 />T+ ) ! O!R GR\P ?AT !Y >E MO/ CLOSELY AFFILIAT$ ) & 5D+ ) ! GR\PS !Y >E MO/ OPPOS$ TO3 

,LOYALI/3 ,KURDI%1 ,TURKI%1 JIHADI1 REBEL 

,REBEL3 ,TURKI%1 JIHADI1 ,KURDI%1 LOYALI/ 

,TURKI%3 REBEL1 JIHADI1 LOYALI/1 ,KURDI% 

,KURDI%3 LOYALI/1 REBEL1 ,TURKI%1 JIHADI 

,JIHADI3 REBEL1 ,TURKI%1 ,KURDI% & LOYALI/ 

,?IS MAY BE HELPFUL 9 VISUALIZ+ :I* GR\PS C\LD BE CAPABLE ( COMPROMIS+ & :I* >E IRREV]SIBLY AT ODDS4 ,AGA91 REMEMB]1 ,I AM G5]ALIZ+ A LOT4 

,I WANT TO BE CLE> ?AT EA* ( !SE GR\PS IS MOTIVAT$ BY A N>RATIVE ?AT CONTA9S AT LEA/ SOME K]NEL ( TRU?4 ,= EXAMPLE1 9 REG>DS TO ! QUE/ION ( :O IS TO BLAME = ! RISE ( ,I,S,I,S1 IT IS TRUE ?AT ! ,U,S 0PL[$ ! FIELD0 = ,I,S,I,S ) ! 9VASION & OCCUPATION ( ,IRAQ & ITS DISA/R\S FALL\T 7LOYALI/ N>RATIVE72 BUT IT IS ALSO TRUE ?AT ! ,TURKI% /ATE HAS TACITLY & SOMETIMES BLATANTLY COLLUD$ ) ,I,S,I,S BECAUSE ,I,S,I,S WAS FI<T+ AGA9/ ! PRIM>Y ADV]S>Y ( ! ,TURKI% /ATE 7,KURDI% N>RATIVE7 & ?AT ,ASSAD'S BRUTAL REACTION TO ! ,>AB ,SPR+ CONTRIBUT$ TO A SPIRAL ( ESCALAT+ VIOL5CE ?AT CULM9AT$ 9 ! RISE ( ,DAE% 7REBEL N>RATIVE74 ,& AL?\< ,I'M LEA/ SYMPA!TIC TO ! JIHADI & ,TURKI% /ATE P]SPECTIVES1 IT IS C]TA9 ?AT UNLESS ! WELL-BE+ ( ,SUNNI ,>ABS 9 ,IRAQ & ,SYRIA IS FACTOR$ 9TO A POLITICAL SETTLEM5T1 ! JIHADIS WILL GO ON FI<T+1 & ?AT UNLESS !RE IS SOME K9D ( POLITICAL SETTLEM5T BETWE5 ! ,TURKI% /ATE & ! ,P,K,K1 ,TURKEY WILL GO ON SEEK+ TO WIPE \T ,KURDI% POLITICAL =MATIONS1 )\T HESITAT+ TO COMMIT G5OCIDE4 

,IT'S SAID ?AT 0,KURDS >E SECOND-CLASS CITIZ5S 9 ,SYRIA1 ?IRD-CLASS CITIZ5S 9 ,IRAN1 F\R?-CLASS CITIZ5S 9 ,IRAQ1 & FIF?-CLASS CITIZ5S 9 ,TURKEY40 ,IT'S NO ACCID5T ?AT :5 ,TURKI% (FICIALS LIKE ,=EIGN ,M9I/] ,MEVLUT ,CAVUSOGLU LI/ ! 0T]ROR GR\PS0 !Y >E MO/ CONC]N$ AB\T 9 ! REGION1 !Y NAME ! ,Y,P,G BE=E ,I,S,I,S4 ,P]HAPS ?IS CAN HELP EXPLA9 ! CAUTI\S RESPONSE ( MANY ,KURDS TO ! ,SYRIAN REVOLUTION3 FROM ! ,KURDI% P]SPECTIVE1 REGIME *ANGE 9 ,SYRIA C>RI$ \T BY ,TURKI%-BACK$ JIHADIS C\PL$ ) NO REGIME *ANGE 9 ,TURKEY C\LD BE WORSE ?AN NO REGIME *ANGE 9 ,SYRIA AT ALL4 

,I WON'T REHA% ! :OLE TIMEL9E FROM ! ANCI5T ,SUM]IANS TO ! BEG9N+ ( ! ,P,K,K W> 9 ,TURKEY TO ! #bc 9VASION ( ,IRAQ TO ! ,>AB ,SPR+ & ! RISE ( ,I,S,I,S4 ,LET'S SKIP =W>D TO ,TRUMP'S ANN\NCEM5T ON ,DECEMB] #a#i3 0,WE HAVE DEFEAT$ ,I,S,I,S 9 ,SYRIA1 MY ONLY REASON = BE+ !RE DUR+ ! ,TRUMP ,PRESID5CY40 

,HAS ,I,S,I,S ,BE5 ,DEFEAT$8 ,& BY ,:OM8 

  

,LET ME BE CLE>3 ,DAE% HAS NOT BE5 DEFEAT$ 9 ,SYRIA4 ,JU/ A FEW DAYS AGO1 !Y TOOK A %OT AT \R POSITION ) A ROCKET LAUN*] \T ( A CLE> BLUE SKY & MISS$ BY ONLY A HUNDR$ Y>DS4 

,IT IS TRUE ?AT !IR T]RITORY IS JU/ A FRACTION ( :AT IT ONCE WAS4 ,AT ! SAME TIME1 BY ANY ACC\NT1 !Y /ILL HAVE ?\S&S ( FI<T]S1 A LOT ( HEAVY WEAPONRY1 & PROBABLY QUITE A BIT ( :AT REMA9S ( !IR S5IOR LEAD]%IP D[N 9 ! ,HAJ9 POCKET ( ! ,EUPHRATES RIV] VALLEY & ! SURR\ND+ DES]TS1 BETWE5 ,HAJ9 & ! ,IRAQI BORD]4 ,9 ADDITION1 ,I,S,I,S HAVE A LOT ( EXP]I5CE & A WIDE >RAY ( SOPHI/ICAT$ DEF5SE /RATEGIES--& !Y >E ABSOLUTELY WILL+ TO DIE TO 9FLICT DAMAGE ON !IR 5EMIES4 

,TO ! EXT5T ?AT !IR T]RITORY HAS BE5 DRA/ICALLY R$UC$1 ,TRUMP IS TELL+ A BALD-FAC$ LIE 9 TRY+ TO TAKE CR$IT = ?IS4 ,! A*IEVEM5T HE IS CLAIM+ AS HIS [N IS L>GELY ! WORK ( PRECISELY ! PEOPLE HE IS CONSIGN+ TO DEA? AT ! H&S ( ,TURKEY4 

,UND] ,OBAMA1 ! ,DEP>TM5T ( ,DEF5SE & ! ,C,I,A PURSU$ DRAMATICALLY DIFF]5T /RATEGIES 9 REF]5CE TO ! UPRIS+ & SUBSEQU5T CIVIL W> 9 ,SYRIA4 ,! ,C,I,A FOCUS$ ON OV]?R[+ ,ASSAD BY ANY MEANS NECESS>Y1 TO ! PO9T ?AT >MS & MONEY !Y SUPPLI$ TRICKL$ D[N TO AL-,NUSRA1 ,I,S,I,S1 & O!RS4 ,BY CONTRA/1 ! ,P5TAGON WAS MORE FOCUS$ ON DEFEAT+ ,I,S,I,S1 BEG9N+ TO CONC5TRATE ON SUPPORT+ ! L>GELY ,KURDI% ,PEOPLE'S ,PROTECTION ,UNITS 7,Y,P,G_/,Y,P,J7 DUR+ ! DEF5SE ( ,KOBANE 9 #b#a#d4 

,N[1 AS AN AN>*I/ :O DESIRES ! COMPLETE ABOLITION ( EV]Y GOV]NM5T1 ,I HAVE NO LOVE = ! ,P5TAGON OR ! ,C,I,A1 BUT IF WE EVALUATE !SE TWO APPROA*ES ACCORD+ TO !IR [N PR(ESS$ GOALS1 ! ,P5TAGON PLAN WORK$ FAIRLY WELL1 :ILE ! ,C,I,A PLAN WAS A TOTAL DISA/]4 ,9 ?IS REG>D1 IT'S FAIR TO SAY ?AT ! ,OBAMA ADM9I/RATION CONTRIBUT$ TO BO? ! GR[? ( ,I,S,I,S & ITS SUPPRESSION4 ,TRUMP1 = HIS P>T1 HAS DONE NEI!R1 EXCEPT 9S(> AS ! SORT ( NATIONALI/ ,ISLAMOPHOBIA HE PROMOTES HELPS TO G5]ATE A SYMMETRICAL =M ( ,ISLAMIC FUNDAM5TALISM4 

,UP UNTIL ,DECEMB]1 ,TRUMP MA9TA9$ ! ,P5TAGON /RATEGY 9 ,SYRIA ?AT HE 9H]IT$ FROM ! ,OBAMA ADM9I/RATION4 ,!RE HAVE BE5 SIGNS ( MISSION CREEP FROM ,U,S ,NATIONAL ,SECURITY ,ADVIS] ,JOHN ,R4 ,BOLTON & ,SECRET>Y ( ,/ATE ,MIKE ,POMPEO1 :O ULTIMATELY HOPE TO UND]M9E ,IRAN ON ACC\NT ( IT SUPPLY+ OIL TO ,*9A4 ,?IS F>--& NO FUR!R--,I CAN UND]/& ! CONC]NS ( A PSEUDO-PACIFI/ 0ANTI-IMP]IALI/03 W> ) ,IRAN W\LD BE A NI<TM>E COMP\ND+ ! CATA/ROPHE BR\<T AB\T BY ! W> 9 ,IRAQ4 ,SO YES1 9S(> AS ! ,Y,P,G & ,Y,P,J W]E =C$ TO COORD9ATE ) ! ,U,S MILIT>Y1 !Y W]E WORK+ ) UNSAVORY *>ACT]S :OSE MOTIVATIONS W]E V]Y DIFF]5T FROM !IR [N4 

,TO SUM UP3 :AT HAS BR\<T AB\T ! BY-N[ ALMO/ TOTAL RECAPTURE ( ! T]RITORY ,I,S,I,S OCCUPI$ ISN'T ROCKET SCI5CE4 ,IT'S ! COMB9ATION ( A BRAVE & CAPABLE GR\ND =CE ) AIR SUPPORT4 ,9 ?IS SORT ( CONV5TIONAL T]RITORIAL W>1 IT'S EXTREMELY DIFFICULT = A GR\ND =CE )\T AIR SUPPORT TO DEFEAT A GR\ND =CE ) AIR SUPPORT1 NO MATT] H[ FI]CELY ! =M] FI<TS4 ,9 SOME P>TS ( ,SYRIA1 ?IS 9VOLV$ ! ,Y,P,G_/,Y,P,J ON ! GR\ND ) ,U,S BACK+ FROM ! AIR4 ,ELSE:]E 9 ,SYRIA1 IT MU/ BE SAID1 ,I,S,I,S WAS PU%$ BACK BY ! COMB9ATION ( ,RUSSIAN AIR SUPPORT & ! LOYALI/ >MY 7,S,A,A7 ALONGSIDE ,IRANIAN-BACK$ MILITIAS4 

,\TSIDE ,9T]V5TIONS 

  

,IT W\LD HAVE BE5 EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO RECAPTURE ?IS T]RITORY FROM ,I,S,I,S ANY O!R WAY4 ,! COOP]ATION ( ! ,Y,P,G_/,Y,P,J ) ! ,U,S MILIT>Y REMA9S CONTROV]SIAL1 BUT ! FACT IS--EV]Y SIDE 9 ! ,SYRIAN CONFLICT HAS BE5 PROPP$ UP & SUPPORT$ BY L>G] \TSIDE P[]S & W\LD HAVE COLLAPS$ )\T ?AT SUPPORT4 

,PEOPLE EMPLOY+ ! ,TURKI%1 LOYALI/1 & JIHADI N>RATIVES (T5 PO9T \T ?AT ,KOBANE W\LD HAVE FALL5 & ,Y,P,G_/,Y,P,J W\LD NEV] HAVE BE5 ABLE TO RETAKE EA/]N ,SYRIA FROM ,DAE% )\T ,U,S AIR SUPPORT4 ,LIKEWISE1 ! ,SYRIAN GOV]NM5T & ! ,ASSAD REGIME W]E V]Y CLOSE TO MILIT>Y COLLAPSE 9 #b#a#e1 >\ND ! TIME ,TURKEY CONV5I5TLY D[N$ A ,RUSSIAN PLANE & ,PUT9 DECID$ ?AT ,RUSSIA WAS GO+ TO BAIL \T ! ,ASSAD REGIME NO MATT] :AT IT TOOK4 ,! REBELS1 ON !IR SIDE1 NEV] W\LD HAVE COME CLOSE TO TOPPL+ ,ASSAD ?R\< MILIT>Y MEANS )\T MASSIVE ASSI/ANCE FROM ! ,TURKI% GOV]NM5T1 ! ,GULF /ATES1 ,U,S 9TELLIG5CE S]VICES1 & PROBABLY ,ISRAEL ON SOME LEVEL1 AL?\< ! DETAILS ( ?IS >E MURKY FROM :]E ,I'M SITUAT$4 

,& ! JIHADIS--,DAE%1 AL-,NUSRA1 AL-,QA$A1 & ! O!RS--W\LD NEV] HAVE BE5 ABLE TO TAKE CONTROL ( HALF ( ,IRAQ & ,SYRIA IF ! ,U,S HAD NOT BE5 SO FOOLI% AS TO LEAVE AN >MY'S WOR? ( /ATE-(-!->T EQUIPM5T 9 ! H&S ( ! ,IRAQI GOV]NM5T1 :I* EFFECTIVELY AB&ON$ IT4 ,IT ALSO HELP$ !M ?AT A TREM5D\S AM\NT ( RES\RCES TRICKL$ D[N FROM ! ABOVE-M5TION$ =EIGN SPONSORS ( ! REBELS4 ,IT ALSO HELP$ ?AT ,TURKEY LEFT ITS AIRPORTS & BORD]S OP5 TO JIHADIS FROM ALL OV] ! WORLD :O SET \T TO JO9 ,DAE%4 ,!RE ALSO APPE>S TO HAVE BE5 SOME SORT ( F9ANCIAL SUPPORT FROM ! ,GULF /ATES1 :E!R =MALLY OR ?R\< BACK *ANNELS4 

,! ,TURKI% /ATE HAS ITS [N AG5DA4 ,IT IS NOT BY ANY MEANS SIMPLY A PROXY = ! ,U,S4 ,BUT AT ! 5D ( ! DAY1 IT'S A ,N,A,T,O MEMB] & IT CAN C\NT ON ! ONE HUNDR$ P]C5T SUPPORT ( ! ,U,S GOV]NM5T--AS ! MISSILE SALE ?AT ! ,U,S MADE TO ,TURKEY DAYS BE=E ! )DRAWAL TWEET ILLU/RATES4 

,9 VIEW ( ALL ?IS1 WE CAN SEE :Y ,Y,P,G_/,Y,P,J *OSE TO COOP]ATE ) ! ,U,S MILIT>Y4 ,MY PO9T IS NOT TO DEF5D ?IS DECISION1 BUT TO %[ ?AT UND] ! CIRCUM/ANCES1 IT WAS ! ONLY PRACTICAL ALT]NATIVE TO ANNIHILATION4 ,AT ! SAME TIME1 IT IS CLE> ?AT ?IS /RATEGY HAS NOT CREAT$ SECURITY = ! EXP]IM5T 9 ,ROJAVA4 ,EV5 IF WE SET ASIDE E?ICAL CONC]NS1 !RE >E PROBLEMS ) RELY+ ON ! ,UNIT$ ,/ATES--OR ,FRANCE1 ,RUSSIA1 ,TURKEY1 ,SAUDI ,>ABIA1 OR ANY O!R /ATE GOV]NM5T ) ITS [N /ATE AG5DA4 ,AS AN>*I/S1 WE HAVE TO TALK V]Y S]I\SLY AB\T H[ TO CREATE O!R OPTIONS = PEOPLE 9 CONFLICT ZONES4 ,IS !RE ANY =M ( 9T]NATIONAL HORIZONTAL DEC5TRALIZ$ COORD9ATION ?AT C\LD HAVE SOLV$ ! PROBLEMS ?AT ! PEOPLE 9 ,ROJAVA W]E FAC+ SU* ?AT !Y W\LD NOT HAVE BE5 =C$ TO DEP5D ON ! ,U,S MILIT>Y8 ,IF WE F9D NO ANSW] TO ?IS QUE/ION :5 WE LOOK AT ! ,SYRIA ( #b#a#c-#b#a#h1 IS !RE SOME?+ WE C\LD HAVE DONE E>LI]8 ,!SE >E EXTREMELY PRESS+ QUE/IONS4 

,NO ONE %\LD =GET ?AT ,I,S,I,S WAS ONLY R$UC$ TO !IR CURR5T RELATIVE WEAKNESS BY A MULTI-E?NIC1 RADICALLY DEMOCRATIC GRASSROOTS RESI/ANCE MOVEM5T1 ?AT 9CID5TALLY 9VOLV$ 9T]NATIONAL VOLUNTE]S FROM >\ND ! GLOBE4 ,9 VIEW ( ,TRUMP'S ORD] TO AB&ON & BETRAY ! /RUGGLE AGA9/ ,I,S,I,S1 EV]Y S9C]E P]SON :O E>NE/LY WANTS TO PUT A /OP TO ! SPREAD ( APOCALYPTIC FUNDAM5TALI/ T]ROR GR\PS LIKE ,I,S,I,S OR !IR IMM95T SUCCESSORS %\LD /OP C\NT+ ON ! /ATE & PUT ALL !IR RES\RCES 9TO DIRECTLY SUPPORT+ DEC5TRALIZ$ MULTI-E?NIC EGALIT>IAN MOVEM5TS4 ,IT IS BECOM+ EV] CLE>] ?AT ?OSE >E \R ONLY HOPE4 

,:AT ,DOES ! ,TROOP ,)DRAWAL ,MEAN8 

  

,I'M NOT SURPRIS$ ?AT ,TRUMP & ! ,AM]ICANS >E 0BETRAY+ AN ALLY0--,I DON'T ?9K ANYBODY H]E HAD ! ILLUSION ?AT ,TRUMP OR ! ,P5TAGON 9T5D$ TO SUPPORT ! POLITICAL PROJECT 9 ,ROJAVA4 ,LOOK+ BACK ?R\< HI/ORY1 IT WAS CLE> 5\< ?AT :5 ,I,S,I,S WAS BEAT51 ! ,U,S W\LD LEAVE ,ROJAVA AT ! M]CY ( ! ,TURKI% MILIT>Y4 ,IF ! =CES ( ! ,Y,P,G_/,Y,P,J HAVE DRAGG$ !IR FEET 9 ROOT+ ,I,S,I,S \T ( !IR LA/ /RON<OLDS1 ?IS MAY BE ONE ( ! REASONS4 

,BUT IT IS /ILL V]Y SURPRIS+ & P]PLEX+ ?AT ,TRUMP W\LD RU% TO GIVE UP ?IS FOO?OLD ?AT ! ,U,S HAS C>V$ \T 9 ! ,RUSSOSPH]E--& ?AT ! ,U,S MILIT>Y E/ABLI%M5T W\LD LET HIM DO SO4 ,FROM ! P]SPECTIVE ( MA9TA9+ ,U,S GLOBAL MILIT>Y HEGEMONY1 ! DECISION MAKES NO S5SE AT ALL4 ,IT'S A GRATUIT\S GIFT TO ,PUT91 ,]DOGAN1 & ,I,S,I,S1 :I* C\LD TAKE ADVANTAGE ( ! SITUATION TO REG5]ATE ?R\<\T ! REGION1 P]HAPS 9 SOME NEW =M--MORE ON ?AT BEL[4 

,! )DRAWAL FROM ,SYRIA DOES NOT NECESS>ILY MEAN ?AT CONFLICT ) ,IRAN IS (F ! TABLE1 BY ! WAY4 ,ON ! CONTR>Y1 C]TA9 HAWKS 9 ! ,U,S GOV]NM5T MAY SEE ?IS AS A /EP T[>DS CONSOLIDAT+ A POSITION FROM :I* ?AT C\LD BE POSSIBLE4 

,H[EV] Y\ LOOK AT IT1 ,TRUMP'S DECISION IS BIG NEWS4 ,IT 9DICATES ?AT ! ,U,S 0DEEP /ATE0 HAS NO P[] OV] ,TRUMP'S =EIGN POLICY4 ,IT SUGGE/S ?AT ! ,U,S NEOLIB]AL PROJECT IS DEAD 9 ! WAT]1 OR AT LEA/ ?AT SOME ELEM5TS ( ! ,U,S RUL+ CLASS CONSID] IT TO BE4 ,IT ALSO IMPLIES A FUTURE 9 :I* E?NO-NATIONALI/ AUTOCRATS LIKE ,]DOGAN1 ,TRUMP1 ,ASSAD1 ,BOLSON>O1 & ,PUT9 WILL BE 9 ! DRIV]'S SEAT WORLDWIDE1 CONNIV+ ) EA* O!R TO MA9TA9 P[] OV] !IR PRIVATE DOMA9S4 

,9 ?AT CASE1 ! 5TIRE PO/-COLD W> ]A ( ,U,S MILIT>Y HEGEMONY IS OV]1 & WE >E 5T]+ A MULTIPOL> AGE 9 :I* TYRANTS WILL RULE BALKANIZ$ AU?ORIT>IAN E?NO-/ATES3 ?9K ,EUROPE BE=E ,WORLD ,W> ,I4 ,! LIB]ALS & NEOCONS]VATIVES :O PREF]R$ ,U,S HEGEMONY >E M\RN+ ! PASS+ ( AN ]A ?AT WAS A BLOOD-SOAK$ NI<TM>E = MILLIONS4 ,! LEFTI/S 7& AN>*I/S87 :O IMAG9E ?AT ?IS TRANSITION C\LD BE GOOD NEWS >E FOOLS FI<T+ YE/]DAY'S 5EMY & YE/]DAY'S W>1 NOT RECOGNIZ+ ! NEW NI<TM>ES SPR++ UP >\ND !M4 ,! DE FACTO R$_/BR[N COALITION ( AU?ORIT>IAN SOCIALI/S & FASCI/S :O >E CELEBRAT+ ! >RIVAL ( ?IS NEW AGE >E HURRY+ US ALL HELT]-SKELT] 9TO A BRAVE NEW WORLD 9 :I* MORE & MORE ( ! GLOBE WILL LOOK LIKE ! WOR/ P>TS ( ! ,SYRIAN CIVIL W>4 

,& SPEAK+ FROM ?IS VANTAGE PO9T1 H]E1 TODAY1 ,I DO NOT SAY ?AT LI<TLY4 

,:AT ,WILL ,HAPP5 ,NEXT8 

  

,SADLY1 ,KURDI% & LEFT MOVEM5TS 9 ,TURKEY HAVE BE5 DECIMAT$ OV] ! PA/ FEW YE>S4 ,I W\LD BE V]Y SURPRIS$ IF !RE W]E ANY K9D ( UPRIS+ 9 ,TURKEY1 NO MATT] :AT HAPP5S 9 ,ROJAVA4 ,WE %\LD NOT P]MIT \RSELVES TO HOPE ?AT A ,TURKI% 9VASION H]E W\LD TRIGG] AN 9SURG5CY 9 NOR!RN ,KURDI/AN4 

,UNLESS SOME?+ TRULY UNEXPECT$ TRANSPIRES1 !RE >E BASICALLY TWO POSSIBLE \TCOMES H]E4 

,FIR/ ,SC5>IO 

  

,9 ! FIR/ SC5>IO1 ! ,DEMOCRATIC ,UNION ,P>TY 7,P,Y,D7 WILL MAKE SOME K9D ( AGREEM5T ) ! ,ASSAD REGIME1 LIKELY UND] LESS FAVORABLE T]MS ?AN W\LD HAVE BE5 POSSIBLE BE=E ! ,TURKI% 9VASION ( ,AFR92 BO? SIDES W\LD LIKELY MAKE CONCESSIONS ( SOME K9D & AGREE TO FI<T ON ! SAME SIDE IF ,TURKEY 9VADES4 ,IF ,RUSSIA SIGNS (F ON ?IS1 IT C\LD SUFFICE TO PREV5T ! 9VASION FROM TAK+ PLACE4 ,EI!R ,Y,P,G_/,Y,P,J OR ,S,A,A WILL F9I% (F ! ,HAJ9 POCKET1 & ! W> C\LD BE BASICALLY OV] EXCEPT = ,IDLIB4 

,BO? ! ,ASSAD REGIME & ! V>I\S PR$OM9ANTLY ,KURDI% =MATIONS HAVE BE5 EXTREMELY H>DHEAD$ 9 NEGOTIAT+1 BUT P]HAPS ! ?REAT TO BO? ,ROJAVA & ! ,ASSAD REGIME IS SO EXTREME ?AT !Y WILL *OOSE ?IS OPTION4 ,IT IS POSSIBLE ?AT ?IS IS ONE ( ! OBJECTIVES ( ! ,TURKI% ?REAT1 OR EV5 ( ,TRUMP'S )DRAWAL3 TO =CE ,Y,P,G TO REL9QUI% MILIT>Y AUTONOMY TO ! ,ASSAD REGIME4 

,Y,P,G1 ,P,Y,D1 & COMPANY >E NOT 9 A V]Y GOOD B>GA9+ POSITION RI<T N[1 BUT ! REGIME KN[S IT CAN AT LEA/ B>GA9 ) !M1 :]EAS IF NOR!RN ,SYRIA IS OCCUPI$ BY ,TURKI%-BACK$ JIHADIS & ASSORT$ LOOT]S1 IT IS UNCLE> :AT W\LD HAPP5 NEXT4 ,ROJAVA CONTA9S MU* ( ,SYRIA'S BE/ AGRICULTURAL L& 9 ! NOR?1 AS WELL AS OIL FIELDS 9 ! S\?4 

,I CAN ONLY SPECULATE :AT ! T]MS ( ?IS !ORETICAL AGREEM5T MI<T BE4 ,!RE'S LOTS ( SPECULATION ONL9E3 LANGUAGE RI<TS1 ,KURDI% CITIZ5%IP BE+ REGUL>IZ$1 PRIOR S]VICE 9 ,Y,P,G C\NT+ AS MILIT>Y S]VICE SO ?AT SOLDI]S :O HAVE BE5 FI<T+ ,I,S,I,S ALL !SE YE>S CAN RETURN TO BE+ CIVILIANS RA!R ?AN IMM$IATELY BE+ CONSCRIPT$ 9TO ,S,A,A1 SOME K9D ( LIMIT$ POLITICAL AUTONOMY1 OR ! LIKE4 ,9 EX*ANGE1 ! ,Y,P,G & ITS ALLIES W\LD ESS5TIALLY HAVE TO H& MILIT>Y & POLITICAL CONTROL ( ,S,D,F >EAS OV] TO ! REGIME4 

,C\LD ,ASSAD'S REGIME BE TRU/$ TO ABIDE BY AN AGREEM5T AFT] !Y GA9 CONTROL8 ,PROBABLY NOT4 

,TO BE CLE>1 IT'S ALL TOO EASY = ME TO SPEAK AB/RACTLY AB\T ! ,ASSAD REGIME AS ! LESS] ( TWO EVILS4 ,I'M 9=M$ AB\T MANY ( ! ATROCITIES ! REGIME HAS COMMITT$1 BUT ,I HAVE NOT EXP]I5C$ !M MYSELF1 & ?IS IS NOT ! P>T ( ,SYRIA :]E !Y DID ! WOR/ ?+S1 SO ,I MORE FREQU5TLY HE> /ORIES FROM ! LOCALS AB\T ,DAE% & O!R JIHADIS1 NOT TO M5TION ,TURKEY4 ,!RE >E LIKELY PEOPLE 9 O!R P>TS ( ,SYRIA :O REG>D ! ,ASSAD REGIME REGA9+ P[] ) ! SAME DREAD ) :I* PEOPLE H]E REG>D ! ,TURKI% MILIT>Y & ,I,S,I,S4 

,9 ANY CASE1 !RE >E SOME SIGNS ?AT ?IS FIR/ SC5>IO MI<T /ILL BE POSSIBLE4 ,! REGIME HAS S5T TROOPS TO ,MANBIJ1 TO ONE ( ! L9ES :]E ! MASSIVE ,TURKI%_/,T,F,S,A TROOP BUILDUP IS OCCURR+4 ,!RE >E MEET+S BETWE5 ! ,P,Y,D & ! REGIME AS WELL AS ) ! ,RUSSIANS4 ,AN ,EGYPTIAN-M$IAT$ NEGOTIATION BETWE5 ! ,P,Y,D & ! REGIME IS S*$UL$ TO TAKE PLACE SOON4 

,?IS FIR/ SC5>IO DOES NOT (F] A V]Y ATTRACTIVE SET ( OPTIONS4 ,IT'S NOT :AT ,JORDAN ,MACTAGG>T OR ! ?\S&S & ?\S&S ( ,SYRIANS :O F\<T & DI$ ) ,Y,P,G_/,Y,P,J GAVE !IR LIVES =4 ,BUT IT W\LD BE PREF]ABLE TO ! O!R SC5>IO444 

,SECOND ,SC5>IO 

  

,9 ! SECOND SC5>IO1 ! ,ASSAD REGIME WILL ?R[ 9 ITS LOT ) ,TURKEY 9/EAD ( ) ,Y,P,G4 

,9 ?IS CASE1 SOME COMB9ATION ( ! ,TURKI% MILIT>Y & ITS AFFILIAT$ PROXIES WILL 9VADE FROM ! NOR? :ILE ! REGIME 9VADES FROM ! S\? & WE/4 ,Y,P,G WILL FI<T TO ! DEA?1 /REET BY /REET1 BLOCK BY BLOCK1 9 A FIRE/ORM REM9ISC5T ( ! ,W>SAW <ETTO UPRIS+ OR ! ,P>IS ,COMMUNE1 UTILIZ+ ALL ! DEF5SIVE TACTICS !Y ACQUIR$ :ILE FI<T+ ,I,S,I,S4 ,HUGE NUMB]S ( PEOPLE WILL DIE4 ,EV5TUALLY1 ! ,ASSAD REGIME & ,TURKEY_/,T,F,S,A WILL E/ABLI% SOME L9E BETWE5 !IR ZONES ( CONTROL4 ,= ! =ESEEABLE FUTURE1 !RE W\LD BE SOME K9D ( ,TURKI%-,JIHADI ,RUMP ,/ATE ( ,NOR!RN ,SYRIAN ,W>LORDI/AN4 

,ANY REMA9+ ,KURDS1 ,ASSYRIANS1 ,>M5IANS1 ,*RI/IANS1 & O!R M9ORITIES W\LD BE EXPULS$1 E?NICALLY CLEANS$1 OR T]RORIZ$4 ,T,F,S,A & RELAT$ MILITIAS W\LD LIKELY LOOT EV]Y?+ !Y C\LD GET !IR H&S ON4 ,9 ! LONG RUN1 ,TURKEY W\LD PROBABLY DUMP ! ,SYRIAN REFUGEES :O >E N[ 9 ,TURKEY BACK 9TO !SE OCCUPI$ >EAS1 BR++ AB\T IRREV]SIBLE DEMOGRAPHIC %IFTS ?AT C\LD BE ! CAUSE ( FUTURE E?NIC CONFLICTS 9 ! REGION4 

,WE %\LD NOT BELIEVE ANY ASSURANCES FROM ! ,TURKI% /ATE OR ITS APOLOGI/S ?AT ?IS WILL NOT BE ! RESULT ( !IR 9VASION1 AS ?IS IS EXACTLY :AT !Y HAVE DONE 9 ,AFR9 & !Y HAVE NO REASON TO BEHAVE DIFF]5TLY 9 ,ROJAVA4 ,REMEMB]3 FROM ! P]SPECTIVE ( ! ,TURKI% /ATE1 ! ,Y,P,G_/,Y,P,J >E 5EMY NUMB] ONE 9 ,SYRIA4 

,N[ LET'S TALK AB\T ,DAE%4 ,DESPITE ! LOOM+ ?REAT ( 9VASION1 ,S,D,F IS /ILL F9I%+ (F ! ,HAJ9 POCKET ( ,I,S,I,S4 ,IF IT W]5'T = ! FACT ?AT ,TURKEY IS ?R[+ ,DAE% A LIFEL9E BY ?REAT5+ TO 9VADE1 ,DAE% W\LD BE DOOM$1 AS !Y >E SURR\ND$ BY ,S,D,F1 ,S,A,A1 & ! ,IRAQI >MY4 ,LET ME SAY ?IS AGA93 ,TRUMP GIV+ ,TURKEY ! GO-AHEAD TO 9VADE ,ROJAVA IS PRACTICALLY ! ONLY ?+ ?AT C\LD SAVE ,I,S,I,S4 

,TRUMP HAS REPEAT$LY SAID ?+S TO ! EFFECT ?AT ,TURKEY IS PROMIS+ TO F9I% (F ,I,S,I,S4 ,TO BELIEVE ?IS LIE1 Y\ W\LD HAVE TO BE POLITICALLY IGNORANT1 YES--BUT 9 ADDITION1 Y\ W\LD ALSO HAVE TO BE GEOGRAPHICALLY ILLIT]ATE4 ,?IS DESCRIBES ,TRUMP'S SUPPORT]S1 IF NO ONE ELSE4 

,EV5 IF ! ,TURKI% GOV]NM5T HAD ANY 9T5TION ( FI<T+ ,DAE% 9 ,SYRIA--A PROPOSITION ?AT IS HI<LY D\BTFUL1 CONSID]+ H[ EASY ,TURKEY MADE IT = ,I,S,I,S TO GET (F ! GR\ND--9 ORD] TO EV5 REA* ,HAJ9 & ! ,EUPHRATES RIV] VALLEY1 !Y W\LD HAVE TO /EAMROLL ACROSS ! 5TIRETY ( ,ROJAVA4 ,!RE IS NO O!R WAY TO GET TO ,HAJ94 ,IF Y\'RE UNFAMILI> ) ! >EA1 LOOK AT A MAP & Y\'LL SEE :AT ,I'M TALK+ AB\T4 

,! ,ASSAD REGIME HOLDS POSITIONS RI<T ACROSS ! ,EUPHRATES ,RIV] FROM BO? ! ,S,D,F & ,DAE% POSITIONS1 & W\LD BE WILL+ & ABLE TO F9I% (F ! LA/ ,I,S,I,S POCKET4 ,AS F> AS ,I'M CONC]N$1 ,I'D RA!R SEE ! REGIME TAKE ! LOSSES !RE TO ACCOMPLI% ?AT ?AN SEE ,Y,P,G OV]EXT5D ITSELF & BLE$ ANY FUR!R4 ,BUT ! PO9T H]E IS ?AT :5 ,TRUMP SAYS SOME?+ TO ! EFFECT ?AT 0,TURKEY WILL F9I% (F ,I,S,I,S60 HE IS S5D+ A BLATANT DOG :I/LE TO ,TURKI% H>DL9]S ?AT !Y CAN ATTACK ,ROJAVA & HE WON'T DO ANY?+ TO /OP !M4 ,IT HAS NO?+ TO DO ) ,I,S,I,S & EV]Y?+ TO DO ) E?NIC CLEANS+ 9 ,ROJAVA4 

,IF NO?+ ELSE1 EV5 IF ,ASSAD ALLIES ) ! ,TURKI% GOV]NM5T1 WE CAN HOPE ?AT ! =CES ( ! REGIME WILL /ILL F9I% (F ,I,S,I,S4 ,IF ,TURKEY HAS ITS WAY & DOES :AT ,TRUMP IS TALK+ AB\T1 BEAT+ A PA? ALL ! WAY ?R\< ,ROJAVA TO ,HAJ91 !Y WILL LIKELY GIVE ,DAE%'S FI<T]S SAFE PASSAGE1 A NEW SET ( CLO!S1 ?REE MEALS A DAY1 & ?IS VILLAGE ,I'M LIV+ 9 9 EX*ANGE = !IR ASSI/ANCE FI<T+ FUTURE ,KURDI% 9SURG5CIES4 

,SO !RE IT IS3 9 DECL>+ VICTORY OV] ,I,S,I,S1 ,TRUMP IS >RANG+ ! ONLY WAY ?AT ,I,S,I,S FI<T]S C\LD COME \T ( ?IS SITUATION ) !IR CAPACITIES 9TACT4 ,IT'S ,ORWELLIAN1 TO SAY ! LEA/4 

,! ONLY O!R OPTION ,I CAN IMAG9E1 IF NEGOTIATIONS ) ! ,ASSAD REGIME BREAK D[N OR ,P,Y,D DECIDES TO TAKE ! MORAL HI< ROAD & NOT COMPROMISE ) ! REGIME--:O >E UNTRU/WOR?Y & HAVE C>RI$ \T PL5TY ( ATROCITIES ( !IR [N--W\LD BE TO LET ! 5TIRE ,S,D,F MELT BACK 9TO ! CIVILIAN POPULATION1 P]MIT ,TURKEY & ITS PROXIES TO WALK 9TO ,ROJAVA )\T LOS+ ! FI<T+ =CE ( ! ,Y,P,G_/,Y,P,J1 & IMM$IATELY BEG9 AN 9SURG5CY4 ,?AT MI<T BE SM>T] ?AN A DOOM$ F9AL /&1 BUT :O KN[S4 

,LOOK+ ,=W>D 

  

,P]SONALLY1 ,I WANT TO SEE ! ,SYRIAN CIVIL W> 5D1 & = ,IRAQ TO SOMEH[ BE SP>$ ANO!R CYCLE ( W> 9 ! NE> FUTURE4 ,I WANT TO SEE ,I,S,I,S PREV5T$ FROM REG5]AT+ ITS ROOT SY/EM & PREP>+ = A NEW R\ND ( VIOL5CE4 ,?AT DOESN'T MEAN 9T5SIFY+ ! WAYS ?AT ?IS P>T ( ! WORLD IS POLIC$--IT MEANS FO/]+ LOCAL SOLUTIONS TO ! QUE/ION ( H[ DIFF]5T PEOPLE & POPULATIONS CAN COEXI/1 & H[ !Y CAN DEF5D !MSELVES FROM GR\PS LIKE ,DAE%4 ,?IS IS P>T ( :AT PEOPLE HAVE BE5 TRY+ TO DO 9 ,ROJAVA1 & ?AT IS ONE ( ! REASONS ?AT ,TRUMP & ,]DOGAN F9D ! EXP]IM5T H]E SO ?REAT5+4 ,9 ! 5D1 ! EXI/5CE ( GR\PS LIKE ,I,S,I,S MAKES !IR AU?ORITY LOOK PREF]ABLE BY COMP>ISON1 :]EAS P>TICIPATORY HORIZONTAL MULTI-E?NIC PROJECTS %[ JU/ H[ OPPRESSIVE !IR MODEL IS4 

,OV]?R[+ ,ASSAD BY MILIT>Y MEANS IS A DEAD PROJECT--OR1 AT LEA/1 ! ?+S ?AT W\LD HAVE TO HAPP5 TO MAKE IT PLAUSIBLE AGA9 9 ! NE> FUTURE >E EV5 MORE HORRIFY+ ?AN ! REGIME IS4 ,I HOPE ?AT SOMEH[1 SOM$AY1 !RE CAN BE SOME K9D ( SETTLEM5T BETWE5 ! REGIME & ,Y,P,G_/,Y,P,J1 & ! REGIME & ! REBELS 9 ,IDLIB1 & EV]YONE ELSE :O HAS BE5 SUFF]+ H]E4 ,IF CAPITALISM & /ATE TYRANNY >E ! PROBLEM1 ?IS K9D ( CIVIL W> IS NOT ! SOLUTION1 AL?\< IT SEEMS LIKELY ?AT :AT HAS HAPP5$ 9 ,SYRIA WILL HAPP5 ELSE:]E 9 ! WORLD AS ! CRISES G5]AT$ BY CAPITALISM1 /ATE P[]1 & E?NIC CONFLICTS PUT PEOPLE AT ODDS4 

,:AT CAN Y\ DO1 READ+ ?IS 9 SOME SAF] & /ABL] P>T ( ! WORLD8 

,FIR/1 Y\ CAN SPREAD ! WORD ?AT ,TRUMP'S DECISION IS NEI!R A WAY TO BR+ PEACE TO ,SYRIA NOR CONFIRMATION ?AT ,I,S,I,S HAS BE5 DEFEAT$4 ,Y\ CAN TELL O!R PEOPLE :AT ,I HAVE TOLD Y\ AB\T H[ ! SITUATION LOOKS FROM H]E1 9 CASE ,I AM NOT ABLE TO DO SO MYSELF4 

,SECOND1 9 ! EV5T ( A ,TURKI% 9VASION1 Y\ CAN USE EV]Y MEANS 9 Y\R P[] TO DISCR$IT & IMP$E ! ,TURKI% /ATE1 ,TRUMP1 & ! O!RS :O PAV$ ! WAY = ?AT \TCOME4 ,EV5 IF Y\ >E NOT ABLE TO /OP !M--EV5 IF Y\ CAN'T SAVE \R LIVES--Y\ WILL BE P>T ( BUILD+ ! K9D ( SOCIAL MOVEM5TS & COLLECTIVE CAPACITY ?AT WILL BE NECESS>Y TO SAVE O!RS' LIVES 9 ! FUTURE4 

,9 ADDITION1 Y\ CAN LOOK = WAYS TO GET RES\RCES TO PEOPLE 9 ?IS P>T ( ! WORLD1 :O HAVE SUFF]$ SO MU* & WILL CONT9UE TO SUFF] AS ! NEXT ACT ( ?IS TRAG$Y PLAYS \T4 ,Y\ CAN ALSO LOOK = WAYS TO SUPPORT ! ,SYRIAN REFUGEES :O >E SCATT]$ ACROSS ! GLOBE4 

,F9ALLY1 Y\ CAN ?9K AB\T H[ WE C\LD PUT BETT] OPTIONS ON ! TABLE NEXT TIME AN UPRIS+ LIKE ! ONE 9 ,SYRIA BREAKS \T4 ,H[ CAN WE MAKE SURE ?AT GOV]NM5TS FALL BE=E !IR REIGN GIVES WAY TO ! REIGN ( PURE =CE1 9 :I* ONLY 9SURG5TS BACK$ BY O!R /ATES CAN GA9 CONTROL8 ,H[ CAN WE (F] O!R VISIONS ( H[ PEOPLE CAN LIVE & MEET !IR NE$S TOGE!R1 & MOBILIZE ! =CE IT WILL TAKE TO IMPLEM5T & DEF5D !M ON AN 9T]NATIONAL BASIS )\T NE$ ( ANY /ATE8 

,!SE >E BIG QUE/IONS1 BUT ,I HAVE FAI? 9 Y\4 ,I HAVE TO4 

,APP5DIX3 ,RIVAL ,N>RATIVES 

  

,H]E IS A REVIEW ( ! N>RATIVES WE (T5 SEE FROM DIFF]5T SIDES 9 ! ,SYRIAN CIVIL W>3 

,LOYALI/ N>RATIVE3 

  

,EMPHASIS ON H[ ! ,U,S & O!R C\NTRIES SUPPORT$ & F9ANC$ REBELS = !IR [N GEOPOLITICAL 5DS AS ! MA9 CAUSE = ! ESCALATION ( ! CONFLICT4  

,! EXI/5CE ( ,I,S,I,S IS MO/LY ATTRIBUT$ TO REBEL SUPPORT L&+ 9 ! WRONG H&S & MORE FUNDAM5TALLY AS A RESULT ( ! FALL\T ( ! #bc ,IRAQ W>4  

,EMPHASIS ON L9KS & COOP]ATION BETWE5 SO-CALL$ MOD]ATE REBELS & GR\PS LIKE ,HAY'AT ,TAHRIR AL-,%AM 7,H,T,S7 9 ORD] TO >GUE !Y >E ALL P>T ( ! SAME PROBLEM4  

,V>Y+ VIEWS ON ! ,SYRIAN ,DEMOCRATIC ,=CES 7,S,D,F7 & ITS LEGITIMACY4 ,?IS SEEMS TO BE DIFF]5T FROM LOYALI/ TO LOYALI/1 ) SOME ?9K+ !Y >E ALMO/ AS BAD AS TRADITIONAL REBELS & O!RS SEE+ !M AS ALLIES AGA9/ ,I,S,I,S & ,TURKI%-SUPPORT$ REBELS4  
  
,WE/]N1 GULF ,>AB1 & REBEL N>RATIVE3 

  

,EMPHASIS ON ! ,>AB SPR+ & H[ ! BRUTAL SUPPRESSION ( 7RELATIVELY7 PEACEFUL PROTE/S L$ TO AN ESCALATION ( ! CONFLICT & >M$ REBELLION & EV5TUALLY FULL BL[N CIVIL W>4  

,EXI/5CE ( ,I,S,I,S MO/LY ATTRIBUT$ TO ,ASSAD'S ACTIONS4 ,(T5 CLAIM+ H[ HIS BRUTAL ACTIONS & RELIANCE ON SECT>IAN MILITIAS CREAT$ AN 5VIRONM5T 9 :I* ,I,S,I,S C\LD GR[ & GA9 SUPPORT4 ,MOREOV]1 ! PO9T IS MADE ?AT ,ASSAD'S MILIT>Y DELIB]ATELY T>GET$ O!R REBELS MORE ?AN ,I,S,I,S1 & H5CE IS = A L>GE P>T TO BLAME = ITS RISE4  

,EMPHASIS ON H[ !RE IS A CLE> DI/9CTION BETWE5 MOD]ATE REBELS & RADICALS1 & WE %\LD SEP>ATE ! TWO 9 HONE/ ANALYSIS4  

,VIEWS ON ,S,D,F RANG+ FROM UNFRI5DLY TO \TRI<T HO/ILE4 ,(T5 C\%$ 9 EMPHASIZ+ CASES 9 :I* ! ,SYRIAN ,>AB ,>MY 7,S,A,A7 & ! ,S,D,F WORK$ TOGE!R4 ,9 MILD] =MS1 ?IS N>RATIVE CRITICIZES A P]CEIV$ OV]RELIANCE ON ,KURDS 9 MAJORITY ,>AB >EAS1 :ILE /ILL RECOGNIZ+ ! LEGITIMACY ( ! ORGANIZATION 9 MAJORITY ,KURDI% >EAS4  
  
,TURKI% N>RATIVE3 

  

,! ,TURKI% N>RATIVE IS BASICALLY ! SAME AS ! PREVI\S ON MO/ ISSUES1 ) ! IMPORTANT EXCEPTION ?AT ! HO/ILITY T[>DS ! ,S,D,F 9T5SIFIES TO ! EXTREME4 ,H]E1 ! L9KS BETWE5 ! ,S,D,F & ! ,P,K,K >E EMPHASIZ$ & ! ,S,D,F IS *>ACT]IZ$ AS AN ILLEGITIMATE T]ROR ORGANIZATION ?AT IS A ?REAT TO ,TURKEY & SUPPRESSES LOCAL ,>ABS4 

,WE/]N1 ,KURDI% N>RATIVE3 

  

,! CONFLICT IS (T5 SE5 AS A HI/ORIC OPPORTUNITY = ! ,KURDI% PEOPLES 9 !IR QUE/ = NATIONHOOD4 ,EMPHASIS ON H[ ,KURDS W]E DISCRIM9AT$ AGA9/ BE=E ! W> & H[ !Y CAN TAKE MATT]S 9TO !IR [N H&S N[4  

,! EXI/5CE & EXPANSION ( ,I,S,I,S IS MO/LY BLAM$ ON ,TURKEY4 ,ESPECIALLY ,TURKEY'S PASSIVITY DUR+ ! BATTLE ( ,KOBANE IS HI<LI<T$1 ALONG ) ACCUSATIONS ( DIRECT SUPPORT ( ,I,S,I,S & IMPORT+ ,I,S,I,S OIL4  

,REG>D+ REBELS1 ! VIEWS T5D TO COME CLOS] TO ?AT ( LOYALI/S4 ,REBELS 79 RELEVANT >EAS1 ANYWAY7 >E SE5 EI!R AS ,TURKI% PROXIES OR AS RADICAL LUNATICS TO :OM ,TURKEY CAN TURN A BL9D EYE4 ,! L9E BETWE5 REBELS & ,I,S,I,S IS (T5 BLURR$1 ?\< !Y >5'T LUMP$ 9 TOGE!R TO ! SAME EXT5T AS 9 ! LOYALI/ N>RATIVE4  

,S,D,F IS SE5 AS ONE ( ! ONLY SANE & MORAL >M$ ACTORS 9 A BATTLE O!RWISE *>ACT]IZ$ BY BAD V]SUS BAD4 ,BO? REBEL & LOYALI/ ATROCITIES >E EMPHASIZ$ TO SUPPORT ?IS PO9T ( VIEW4  
  
,I,S,I,S & RADICAL ,ISLAMI/ N>RATIVE3 

  

,! />T ( ! CONFLICT IS SE5 AS A GREAT AWAK5+ ( ,MUSLIMS AGA9/ !IR APO/ATE ,ALAWITE OV]LORDS4 ,EMPHASIS ON ! SOLID>ITY ( =EIGN FI<T]S T[>DS !IR SUFF]+ ,SYRIAN BRE?R54  

,?IS P]SPECTIVE 9CLUDES ,I,S,I,S ITSELF & ALSO ,AL ,QA$A & SIMIL> RADICAL GR\PS1 :O SEE ,I,S,I,S AS A GR\P ?AT BETRAY$ ! JIHADI CAUSE4  

,! REBELS >E SE5 AS NAIVE SELL\TS S]V+ ! 9T]E/S ( =EIGN GOV]NM5TS & IMPLEM5T+ NON-,ISLAMIC IDEALS ON !IR BEHALF4 ,EMPHASIS IS ALSO PUT ON H[ REBELS NEGOTIATE & REA* DEALS ) LOYALI/S1 ONLY TO BE BETRAY$ & LOSE T]RITORY4  

,S,D,F >E SE5 AS A!I/ APO/ATES ON ! ,U,S PAYROLL4 ,! *IEF DIFF]5CE ) ,TURKEY IS P]HAPS ! EMPHASIS ON LACK ( RELIGION RA!R ?AN CONNECTIONS TO ! ,P,K,K4  
  

.<#a.> ,9 ,HAJ91 :]E ! LA/ ,I,S,I,S /RON<OLD IS1 ! ,AM]ICAN POSITION IS WAY BEH9D ! FRONT1 9 >TILL]Y RANGE BUT \T ( RANGE ( ANY WEAPONS ,DAE% HAS1 SO !Y CAN SIT !RE & P\ND AWAY )\T BE+ HIT BACK1 :ILE ! RISKS >E RUN BY GR\ND TROOPS ( ! ,PEOPLE'S ,PROTECTION ,UNITS 7,Y,P,G7 & ,SYRIAN ,DEMOCRATIC ,=CES 7,S,D,F74 ,?IS IS PRECISELY :AT ! ,TURKI% >MY W\LD DO TO US IF ,TURKEY 9VADES ,ROJAVA4 8 

.<#b.> ,9 FACT1 !RE >E TWO MAJOR P>TIES 9 ,IRAQI ,KURDI/AN 9 ADDITION TO ! ,KURDI/AN ,WORK]S' ,P>TY 7,P,K,K74 ,!Y EA* HAVE !IR [N >MIES & POLICE2 !Y F\<T AN ACTUAL CIVIL W> ONCE4 ,!Y DO NOT LIKE EA* O!R AT ALL4 ,! ,KURDI/AN ,DEMOCRATIC ,P>TY 7,K,D,P71 ! ,B>ZANI FAMILY DYNA/Y1 IS MORE CLOSELY ALIGN$ ) ,TURKEY & ! ,U,S2 IT WAS MORE CLOSELY ALIGN$ ) ,SADDAM ,HUSSE9 BE=E4 ,!Y HAVE BAD RELATIONS ) ! ADM9I/RATION 9 ,ROJAVA2 !Y >E R\NDLY DESPIS$ H]E BECAUSE !Y BASICALLY /OOD ASIDE & LET ! CATA/ROPHE 9 ,S9J> HAPP5 9 !IR [N BACKY>D :ILE ! ,P,K,K SCRAMBL$ TO RU% 9TO ! BREA*4 ,! ,PATRIOTIC ,UNION ( ,KURDI/AN 7,P,U,K7 HAS BETT] RELATIONS ) ,IRAN1 ,P,K,K1 & ! ADM9I/RATION H]E4 ,!RE IS A ,K,D,P-RELAT$ MILITIA CALL$ ,ROJAVA ,PE%M]GA 9 ,ROJAVA2 AGA91 !Y HAVE A POOR REPUTATION BECAUSE !Y'VE SP5T ! :OLE W> DO+ V]Y LITTLE :ILE ,Y,P,G HAS DI$ 9 DROVES FI<T+ ,I,S,I,S4 ,ALL ?IS IS SIMPLY TO SAY ?AT !RE IS NO S+LE ,KURDI% POSITION2 !RE >E REACTION>Y ,KURDI% GR\PS1 TOO4 8 

.<#c.> ,M9D Y\1 ! ,SYRIAN REBELS W]E NEV] HOMOG5\S2 AMONG !M1 Y\ CAN F9D BO? AN ELEM5T ALIGN$ TO ,TURKEY & JIHADIS & AN ELEM5T ALIGN$ MORE CLOSELY ) ,Y,P,G_/,Y,P,J4 ,UN=TUNATELY1 MANY ( ?OSE :O W]E 9T]E/$ 9 MORE 0DEMOCRATIC0 SOLUTIONS TO ! SITUATION 9 ,SYRIA W]E =C$ TO FLEE ! C\NTRY YE>S AGO4 

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