,P>T #a1 ,*APT] #d 
,GLOBAL ,/RUGGLES = ,DOM9ANCE3 ,I,S,I,S1 ,N,A,T,O1 & ,RUSSIA 

,PEOPLE 3 

,AU?OR 3 ,NOAM ,*OMSKY 

,TEXT 3 

,GLOBAL ,/RUGGLES = ,DOM9ANCE3 ,I,S,I,S1 ,N,A,T,O1 & ,RUSSIA 

  

,C4 ,J4 ,P,O,L,Y,*,R,O,N,I,\3 ,! RISE ( ,I,S,I,S IS A DIRECT CONSEQU5CE ( ! ,U,S 9VASION & OCCUPATION ( ,IRAQ & REPRES5TS TODAY1 BY F>1 ! MO/ BRUTAL & DANG]\S T]RORI/ ORGANIZATION WE HAVE SE5 9 REC5T MEMORY4 ,IT ALSO APPE>S ?AT ITS T5TACLES HAVE REA*$ BEYOND ! 0BLACK HOLES0 CREAT$ BY ! ,UNIT$ ,/ATES 9 ,SYRIA1 ,LIBYA1 ,IRAQ1 & ,AF<ANI/AN & HAVE N[ TAK5 HOLD 9SIDE ,EUROPE1 A FACT ACKN[L$G$ REC5TLY BY ,G]MAN *ANCELLOR ,ANGELA ,M]KEL4 ,9 FACT1 IT HAS BE5 E/IMAT$ ?AT ATTACKS ORGANIZ$ OR 9SPIR$ BY ,I,S,I,S HAVE TAK5 PLACE EV]Y =TY-EI<T H\RS 9 CITIES \TSIDE ! ABOVE-M5TION$ C\NTRIES S9CE E>LY ,JUNE #b#a#f4 ,:Y HAVE C\NTRIES LIKE ,G]MANY & ,FRANCE BECOME ! T>GETS ( ,I,S,I,S8 

,N,O,A,M ,*,O,M,S,K,Y3 ,I ?9K WE HAVE TO BE CAUTI\S 9 9T]PRET+ ,I,S,I,S CLAIMS ( RESPONSIBILITY = T]RORI/ ATTACKS4 ,TAKE ! WOR/ ( ! REC5T ONES1 9 ,NICE4 ,IT WAS DISCUSS$ BY ,AKB> ,AHM$1 ONE ( ! MO/ C>EFUL & DISC]N+ ANALY/S ( RADICAL ,ISLAM4 ,HE CONCLUDES FROM ! AVAILABLE EVID5CE ?AT ! P]PETRATOR1 ,MOHAM$ ,LAH\AIEJ ,B\HLEL1 WAS PROBABLY 0NOT A DEV\T ,MUSLIM4 ,HE HAD A CRIM9AL RECORD1 DRANK ALCOHOL1 ATE PORK1 DID DRUGS1 DID NOT FA/1 PRAY OR REGUL>LY ATT5D A MOSQUE & WAS NOT RELIGI\S 9 ANY WAY4 ,HE WAS CRUEL TO HIS WIFE1 :O LEFT HIM4 ,?IS IS NOT :AT MANY ,MUSLIMS W\LD TYPICALLY CONSID] REFLECTIVE ( !IR FAI?1 P>TICUL>LY ?OSE :O CONSID] !MSELVES RELIGI\SLY DEV\T40 ,I,S,I,S DID 7BELAT$LY7 0TAKE CR$IT0 = ! ATTACK1 AS !Y R\T9ELY DO1 :ATEV] ! FACTS1 BUT ,AHM$ REG>DS ! CLAIM AS HI<LY DUBI\S 9 ?IS CASE4 ,ON ?IS & SIMIL> ATTACKS1 HE CONCLUDES ?AT 

! REALITY IS ?AT :ILE ,I,S,I,S MAY 9FLU5CE !SE ,MUSLIMS 9 A G5]AL WAY1 !IR ANIMUS IS COM+ FROM !IR POSITION AS UNWANT$ IMMIGRANTS 9 ,EUROPE1 ESPECIALLY 9 ,FRANCE1 :]E !Y >E /ILL NOT TREAT$ .<AS.> ,FR5*1 EV5 IF !Y >E BORN !RE4 ,! COMMUNITY AS A :OLE HAS A DISPROPORTIONATE POPULATION ( UNEMPLOY$ Y\? ) POOR $UCATION & H\S+ & IS CON/ANTLY ! BUTT ( CULTURAL HUMILIATION4 ,IT IS NOT AN 9TEGRAT$ COMMUNITY1 B>R+ SOME HONORABLE EXCEPTIONS4 ,FROM IT COME ! Y\NG M5 LIKE ,LAH\AIEJ ,B\HLEL4 ,! PATT]N ( .<!.> PETTY CRIM9AL MAY BE OBS]V$ 9 ! O!R REC5T T]RORI/ ATTACKS 9 ,EUROPE1 9CLUD+ ?OSE 9 ,P>IS & ,BRUSSELS4 

,AHM$'S ANALYSIS CORRESPONDS CLOSELY TO ?AT ( O!RS :O HAVE DONE EXT5SIVE 9VE/IGATION ( RECRUITS TO ,I,S,I,S1 NOTABLY ,SCOTT ,ATRAN & HIS RESE>* TEAM4 ,& IT %\LD1 ,I ?9K1 BE TAK5 S]I\SLY1 ALONG ) HIS PRESCRIPTIONS1 :I* ALSO >E CLOSE TO ?OSE ( O!R KN[L$GEABLE ANALY/S3 TO 0PROVIDE ! ,MUSLIM COMMUNITY $UCATIONAL & EMPLOYM5T OPPORTUNITIES1 Y\? PROGRAMS1 & PROMOTE ACCEPTANCE1 DIV]SITY & UND]/&+4 ,!RE IS MU* ?AT GOV]NM5TS CAN DO TO PROVIDE LANGUAGE1 CULTURAL & RELIGI\S TRA9+ = ! COMMUNITY1 :I* WILL HELP RESOLVE1 = EXAMPLE1 ! PROBLEM ( =EIGN IMAMS HAV+ DIFFICULTY TRANSF]R+ !IR ROLES ( LEAD]%IP 9TO LOCAL SOCIETY40 

,M]ELY TO TAKE ONE ILLU/RATION ( ! PROBLEM TO BE FAC$1 ,ATRAN PO9TS \T ?AT 0ONLY #g TO #h P]C5T ( ,FRANCE'S POPULATION IS ,MUSLIM1 :]EAS #f TO #g P]C5T ( ,FRANCE'S PRISON POPULATION IS ,MUSLIM40 ,IT'S ALSO WOR? TAK+ NOTE ( A REC5T ,NATIONAL ,RESE>* ,C\NCIL REPORT1 :I* F\ND ?AT 0) RESPECT TO POLITICAL CONTEXT1 T]RORISM & ITS SUPPORT+ AUDI5CES APPE> TO BE FO/]$ BY POLICIES ( EXTREME POLITICAL REPRESSION & DISC\RAG$ BY POLICIES ( 9CORPORAT+ BO? DISSID5T & MOD]ATE GR\PS RESPONSIBLY 9TO CIVIL SOCIETY & ! POLITICAL PROCESS40 

,IT'S EASY TO SAY1 0,LET'S /RIKE BACK ) VIOL5CE0--POLICE REPRESSION1 C>PET-BOMB !M TO OBLIVION 7,T$ ,CRUZ71 & SO ON--V]Y MU* :AT AL-,QA$A & ,I,S,I,S HAVE HOP$ =1 & V]Y LIKELY TO 9T5SIFY ! PROBLEMS1 AS1 9DE$1 HAS BE5 HAPP5+ UNTIL N[4 

,:AT IS ,I,S,I,S'S AIM :5 T>GET+ 9NOC5T CIVILIANS1 SU* AS ! ATTACK ON ! SEASIDE T[N ( ,NICE 9 ,FRANCE 9 :I* EI<TY-F\R PEOPLE W]E KILL$8 

,AS ,I M5TION$1 WE %\LD1 ,I ?9K1 BE CAUTI\S AB\T ! CLAIMS & *>GES ( ,I,S,I,S 9ITIATIVE1 OR EV5 9VOLVEM5T4 ,BUT :5 !Y >E 9VOLV$ 9 SU* ATROCITIES1 ! /RATEGY IS CLE> 5\<4 ,C>EFUL & EXP]T ANALY/S ( ,I,S,I,S & VIOL5T 9SURG5CIES 7,SCOTT ,ATRAN1 ,WILLIAM ,POLK1 & O!RS7 G5]ALLY T5D TO TAKE ,I,S,I,S AT ITS WORD4 ,SOMETIMES !Y CITE ! 0PLAYBOOK0 9 :I* ! CORE /RATEGY US$ BY ,I,S,I,S IS LAID \T1 WRITT5 A DECADE AGO BY ! ,MESOPOTAMIAN W+ ( ! AL-,QA$A AFFILIATE ?AT MORPH$ 9TO ,I,S,I,S4 ,H]E >E ! FIR/ TWO AXIOMS 7QUOT+ AN >TICLE BY ,ATRAN73 

.<,AXIOM #a3.> ,HIT S(T T>GETS3 0,DIV]SIFY & WID5 ! VEXATION /RIKES AGA9/ ! ,CRUSAD]-,ZIONI/ 5EMY 9 EV]Y PLACE 9 ! ,ISLAMIC WORLD1 & EV5 \TSIDE ( IT IF POSSIBLE1 SO AS TO DISP]SE ! EF=TS ( ! ALLIANCE ( ! 5EMY & ?US DRA9 IT TO ! GREATE/ EXT5T POSSIBLE40 .<,AXIOM #b3.> ,/RIKE :5 POT5TIAL VICTIMS HAVE !IR GU>D D[N TO MAXIMIZE FE> 9 G5]AL POPULATIONS & DRA9 !IR ECONOMIES3 0,IF A T\RI/ RESORT ?AT ! ,CRUSAD]S PATRONIZE 444 IS HIT1 ALL ( ! T\RI/ RESORTS 9 ALL ( ! /ATES ( ! WORLD WILL HAVE TO BE SECUR$ BY ! WORK ( ADDITIONAL =CES1 :I* >E D\BLE ! ORD9>Y AM\NT1 & A HUGE 9CREASE 9 SP5D+40 

,& ! /RATEGY HAS BE5 QUITE SUCCESSFUL1 BO? 9 SPREAD+ T]RORISM & IMPOS+ GREAT CO/S ON ! 0,CRUSAD]S0 ) SLI<T EXP5DITURE4 

,IT HAS BE5 REPORT$ ?AT T\RI/S 9 ,FRANCE WILL BE PROTECT$ BY >M$ =CES & SOLDI]S AT HOLIDAY SITES1 9CLUD+ BEA*ES4 ,H[ MU* ( ?IS DEVELOPM5T IS L9K$ TO ! REFUGEE CRISIS 9 ,EUROPE1 :]E MILLIONS HAVE BE5 >RIV+ 9 ! LA/ C\PLE ( YE>S FROM W>-TORN REGIONS >\ND ! WORLD8 

,H>D TO JUDGE4 ,! CRIMES 9 ,FRANCE HAVE NOT BE5 TRAC$ TO REC5T REFUGEES1 AS F> AS ,I HAVE SE54 ,RA!R1 IT SEEMS TO BE MORE LIKE ! ,LAH\AIEJ ,B\HLEL CASE4 ,BUT !RE IS GREAT FE> ( REFUGEES1 F> BEYOND ANY EVID5CE RELAT+ !M TO CRIME4 ,MU* ! SAME APPE>S TO BE TRUE 9 ! ,UNIT$ ,/ATES1 :]E ,TRUMP-/YLE RHETORIC AB\T ,MEXICO S5D+ CRIM9ALS & RAPI/S D\BTLESS FRI<T5S PEOPLE1 EV5 ?\< ! LIMIT$ /ATI/ICAL EVID5CE 9DICATES ?AT 0FIR/-G5]ATION IMMIGRANTS >E PR$ISPOS$ TO L[] CRIME RATES ?AN NATIVE-BORN ,AM]ICANS10 AS REPORT$ BY ,MI*ELLE ,YE ,HEE ,LEE 9 ! ,WA%+TON ,PO/4 

,TO :AT EXT5T W\LD Y\ SAY ?AT ,BREXIT WAS BE+ DRIV5 BY X5OPHOBIA & ! MASSIVE 9FL[ ( IMMIGRANTS 9TO ,EUROPE8 

,!RE HAS BE5 PL5TY ( REPORT+ GIV+ ?AT IMPRESSION1 BUT ,I HAV5'T SE5 ANY H>D DATA4 ,& IT'S WOR? RECALL+ ?AT ! 9FL[ ( IMMIGRANTS IS FROM ! ,E,U1 NOT ?OSE FLEE+ FROM CONFLICT4 ,IT'S ALSO WOR? RECALL+ ?AT ,BRITA9 HAS HAD A NONTRIVIAL ROLE 9 G5]AT+ REFUGEES4 ,! 9VASION ( ,IRAQ1 TO GIVE ONE EXAMPLE4 ,MANY O!RS1 IF WE CONSID] GREAT] HI/ORICAL DEP?4 ,! BURD5 ( DEAL+ ) ! CONSEQU5CES ( ,U,S-,U,K CRIMES FALLS MA9LY ON C\NTRIES ?AT HAD NO RESPONSIBILITY = !M1 LIKE ,LEBANON1 :]E AB\T #d P]C5T ( ! POPULATION IS E/IMAT$ TO BE REFUGEES4 

,>E ! ,UNIT$ ,/ATES & ! MAJOR ,WE/]N P[]S REALLY 9VOLV$ 9 A W> AGA9/ ,I,S,I,S8 ,?IS W\LD SEEM D\BTFUL TO AN \TSIDE OBS]V]1 GIV5 ! GR[+ 9FLU5CE ( ,I,S,I,S & ! CONT9U+ ABILITY ( ! ORGANIZATION TO RECRUIT SOLDI]S = ITS CAUSE FROM 9SIDE ,EUROPE4 

,SPECULATIONS TO ?AT EFFECT >E RAMPANT 9 ! ,MIDDLE ,EA/1 BUT ,I DON'T ?9K !Y HAVE ANY CR$IBILITY4 ,! ,UNIT$ ,/ATES IS P[]FUL1 BUT NOT ALL-P[]FUL4 ,!RE IS A T5D5CY TO ATTRIBUTE EV]Y?+ ?AT HAPP5S 9 ! WORLD TO ! ,C,I,A OR SOME DIABOLICAL ,WE/]N PLAN4 ,!RE IS PL5TY TO CONDEMN1 %>PLY4 ,& ! ,UNIT$ ,/ATES IS 9DE$ P[]FUL4 ,BUT IT'S NO?+ LIKE :AT IS (T5 BELIEV$4 

,!RE SEEMS TO BE A GEOPOLITICAL %IFT UND]WAY 9 ,TURKEY'S REGIONAL POLITICAL ROLE1 :I* MAY HAVE BE5 ! ULTIMATE CAUSE BEH9D ! FAIL$ C\P ( ,JULY #b#a#f4 ,DO Y\ DETECT SU* A %IFT UND] WAY8 

,!RE C]TA9LY HAS BE5 A %IFT 9 REGIONAL POLICY FROM =M] ,TURKI% ,PRIME ,M9I/] ,DAVUTOGLU'S 0,Z]O ,PROBLEMS ,POLICY10 BUT ?AT'S BECAUSE PROBLEMS AB\ND4 ,! GOAL ( BECOM+ A REGIONAL P[]1 SOMETIMES DESCRIB$ AS NEO-,OTTOMAN1 SEEMS TO BE CONT9U+1 IF NOT ACCEL]AT+4 ,RELATIONS ) ! ,WE/ >E BECOM+ MORE T5SE AS ,]DOGAN'S GOV]NM5T CONT9UES ITS /RONG DRIFT T[>D AU?ORIT>IAN RULE1 ) QUITE EXTREME REPRESSIVE MEASURES4 ,?AT NATURALLY IMPELS ,TURKEY TO SEEK ALLIANCES ELSE:]E1 P>TICUL>LY ) ,RUSSIA4 ,]DOGAN'S FIR/ PO/-C\P VISIT WAS TO ,MOSC[1 9 ORD] TO RE/ORE 0! ,MOSC[-,ANK>A FRI5D%IP AXIS0 79 HIS WORDS7 TO :AT IT WAS BE=E ,TURKEY %OT D[N A ,RUSSIAN JET 9 ,NOVEMB] #bae :5 IT ALLEG$LY PASS$ ACROSS ! ,TURKI% BORD] = A FEW SECONDS :ILE ON A BOMB+ MISSION 9 ,SYRIA4 ,V]Y UN=TUNATELY1 !RE IS V]Y LITTLE ,WE/]N OPPOSITION TO ,]DOGAN'S VIOL5T & VICI\S ESCALATION ( ATROCITIES AGA9/ ! ,KURDI% POPULATION 9 ! S\!A/1 :I* SOME OBS]V]S N[ DESCRIBE AS APPROA*+ ! HORRORS ( ! #a#i#iS4 ,AS = ! C\P1 ITS BACKGR\ND REMA9S OBSCURE1 = ! TIME BE+4 ,I DON'T KN[ ( EVID5CE ?AT %IFTS 9 REGIONAL POLICY PLAY$ A ROLE4 

,! C\P AGA9/ ,]DOGAN 5SUR$ ! CONSOLIDATION ( A HI<LY AU?ORIT>IAN REGIME 9 ,TURKEY3 ,]DOGAN >RE/$ ?\S&S ( PEOPLE & CLOS$ D[N M$IA \TLETS1 S*OOLS1 & UNIV]SITIES FOLL[+ ! C\P4 ,! EFFECTS ( ! C\P MAY1 9 FACT1 EV5 /R5G!N ! ROLE ( ! MILIT>Y 9 POLITICAL AFFAIRS AS IT WILL COME UND] ! DIRECT CONTROL ( ! PRESID5T HIMSELF1 A MOVE ?AT ,]DOGAN HAS ALREADY 9ITIAT$4 ,H[ WILL ?IS AFFECT ,TURKEY'S RELATIONS ) ! ,UNIT$ ,/ATES & ,EUROPEAN P[]S1 GIV5 ! ALLEG$ CONC]NS ( ! LATT] AB\T HUMAN RI<TS & DEMOCRACY 9SIDE ,TURKEY & AB\T ,]DOGAN'S PURSUIT ( CLOS] TIES ) ,PUT98 

,! CORRECT WORD IS 0ALLEG$40 ,DUR+ ! #a#i#iS1 ! ,TURKI% GOV]NM5T WAS C>RY+ \T HORRIFY+ ATROCITIES1 T>GET+ ITS ,KURDI% POPULATION--T5S ( ?\S&S KILL$1 ?\S&S ( VILLAGES & T[NS DE/ROY$1 HUNDR$S ( ?\S&S 7MAYBE MILLIONS7 DRIV5 FROM !IR HOMES1 EV]Y IMAG9ABLE =M ( TORTURE4 ,EI<TY P]C5T ( ! >MS W]E COM+ FROM ,WA%+TON1 9CREAS+ AS ATROCITIES 9CREAS$4 ,9 ! S+LE YE> #a#i#i#g1 :5 ATROCITIES W]E PEAK+1 ,CL9TON S5T MORE >MS ?AN ! SUM TOTAL S5T TO ,TURKEY ?R\<\T ! 5TIRE PO/W> ]A UNTIL ! ONSET ( ! C\NT]9SURG5CY CAMPAIGN4 ,! M$IA VIRTUALLY IGNOR$ ALL ( ?IS4 ,! ,NEW ,YORK ,TIMES HAS A BUREAU 9 ,ANK>A1 BUT IT REPORT$ ALMO/ NO?+4 ,! FACTS W]E1 ( C\RSE1 WIDELY KN[N 9 ,TURKEY--& ELSE:]E1 TO ?OSE :O TOOK ! TR\BLE TO LOOK4 ,N[ ?AT ATROCITIES >E PEAK+ AGA91 AS ,I M5TION$1 ! ,WE/ PREF]S TO LOOK ELSE:]E4 

,NEV]!LESS1 RELATIONS BETWE5 ,]DOGAN'S REGIME & ! ,WE/ >E BECOM+ MORE T5SE1 & !RE IS GREAT ANG] AGA9/ ! ,WE/ AMONG ,]DOGAN SUPPORT]S BECAUSE ( ,WE/]N ATTITUDES T[>D ! C\P 7MILDLY CRITICAL1 BUT NOT 5\< = ! REGIME7 & T[>D ! 9CREAS$ AU?ORIT>IANISM & %>P REPRESSION 7MILD CRITICISM1 BUT TOO MU* = ! REGIME74 ,9 FACT1 IT IS WIDELY BELIEV$ ?AT ! ,UNIT$ ,/ATES 9ITIAT$ ! C\P4 

,! ,UNIT$ ,/ATES IS ALSO CONDEMN$ = ASK+ = EVID5CE BE=E EXTRADIT+ ,GUL51 :OM ,]DOGAN BLAMES = ! C\P4 ,NOT A LITTLE IRONY H]E4 ,ONE MAY RECALL ?AT ! ,UNIT$ ,/ATES BOMB$ ,AF<ANI/AN BECAUSE ! ,TALIBAN REFUS$ TO TURN ,OSAMA B9 ,LAD5 OV] )\T EVID5CE4 ,OR TAKE ! CASE ( ,EMMANUEL 0,TOTO0 ,CON/ANT1 ! LEAD] ( ! T]RORI/ =CE ,F,R,A,P,H 7,FRONT = ! ,ADVANCEM5T & ,PROGRESS ( ,HAITI7 ?AT RAN WILD 9 ,HAITI UND] ! MILIT>Y DICTATOR%IP ( ! E>LY '#iS4 ,:5 ! JUNTA WAS OV]?R[N BY A ,M>9E 9VASION1 HE ESCAP$ TO ,NEW ,YORK1 :]E HE WAS LIV+ COM=TABLY4 ,HAITI WANT$ HIM EXTRADIT$ & HAD MORE ?AN 5\< EVID5CE4 ,BUT ,CL9TON REFUS$1 V]Y LIKELY BECAUSE HE W\LD HAVE EXPOS$ ,CL9TON'S TIES TO ! MURD]\S MILIT>Y JUNTA4 

,! REC5T MIGRATION DEAL BETWE5 ,TURKEY & ! ,E,U SEEMS TO BE FALL+ AP>T1 ) ,]DOGAN HAV+ GONE SO F> AS TO SAY PUBLICLY ?AT 0,EUROPEAN LEAD]S >E NOT BE+ HONE/40 ,:AT C\LD BE ! CONSEQU5CES = ,TURKEY-,E,U RELATIONS1 & = ! REFUGEES !MSELVES1 IF ! DEAL W]E TO FALL AP>T8 

,BASICALLY1 ,EUROPE BRIB$ ,TURKEY TO KEEP ! MIS]ABLE REFUGEES--MANY FLEE+ FROM CRIMES = :I* ! ,WE/ BE>S NO SLI<T RESPONSIBILITY--FROM REA*+ ,EUROPE4 ,IT IS SIMIL> TO ,OBAMA'S EF=TS TO 5LI/ ,MEXICAN SUPPORT 9 KEEP+ ,C5TRAL ,AM]ICAN REFUGEES--(T5 V]Y DEF9ITELY VICTIMS ( ,U,S POLICIES1 9CLUD+ ?OSE ( ! ,OBAMA ADM9I/RATION--FROM REA*+ ! ,U,S BORD]4 ,MORALLY GROTESQUE1 BUT BETT] ?AN LETT+ !M DR[N 9 ! ,M$IT]RANEAN4 ,! DET]IORATION ( RELATIONS WILL PROBABLY MAKE !IR TRAVAIL EV5 WORSE4 

,N,A,T,O1 /ILL A ,U,S-DOM9AT$ MILIT>Y ALLIANCE1 HAS 9CREAS$ ITS PRES5CE 9 ,EA/]N ,EUROPE LATELY1 AS IT IS B5T ON /OPP+ ,RUSSIA'S REVIVAL BY CREAT+ DIVISIONS BETWE5 ,EUROPE & ,RUSSIA4 ,IS ! ,UNIT$ ,/ATES LOOK+ = A MILIT>Y CONFLICT ) ,RUSSIA1 OR >E SU* MOVES DRIV5 BY ! NE$ TO KEEP ! MILIT>Y-9DU/RIAL COMPLEX 9TACT 9 A PO/-,COLD ,W> WORLD8 

,N,A,T,O IS SURELY A ,U,S-DOM9AT$ MILIT>Y ALLIANCE4 ,AS ! ,U,S,S,R COLLAPS$1 ,RUSSIA'S ,MIKHAIL ,GORBA*EV PROPOS$ A CONT95T-WIDE SECURITY SY/EM1 :I* ! ,UNIT$ ,/ATES REJECT$1 9SI/+ ON PRES]V+ ,N,A,T,O--& EXP&+ IT4 ,GORBA*EV AGRE$ TO ALL[ A UNIFI$ ,G]MANY TO JO9 ,N,A,T,O1 A REM>KABLE CONCESSION 9 ! LI<T ( HI/ORY4 ,!RE WAS1 H[EV]1 A QUID PRO QUO3 ?AT ,N,A,T,O NOT EXP& 0ONE 9* TO ! EA/10 MEAN+ TO ,EA/ ,G]MANY4 ,?AT WAS PROMIS$ BY ,PRESID5T ,BU% ,I & SECRET>Y ( /ATE ,JAMES ,BAK]1 BUT NOT ON PAP]2 IT WAS A V]BAL COMMITM5T1 & ! ,UNIT$ ,/ATES LAT] CLAIM$ ?AT MEANS IT WAS NOT B9D+4 

,C>EFUL >*IVAL RESE>* BY ,JO%UA ,R4 ,ITZK[ITZ ,%IFR9SON1 PUBLI%$ LA/ SPR+ 9 ! PRE/IGI\S ,H>V>D-,M,I,T J\RNAL ,9T]NATIONAL ,SECURITY1 REVEALS V]Y PLAUSIBLY ?AT ?IS WAS 9T5TIONAL DECEIT1 A V]Y SIGNIFICANT DISCOV]Y ?AT SUB/ANTIALLY RESOLVES1 ,I ?9K1 S*OL>LY DISPUTE AB\T ! MATT]4 ,N,A,T,O DID EXP& TO ,EA/ ,G]MANY2 9 LAT] YE>S1 TO ! ,RUSSIAN BORD]4 ,?OSE PLANS W]E %>PLY CONDEMN$ BY ,GEORGE ,K5NAN & O!R HI<LY RESPECT$ COMM5TATORS BECAUSE !Y W]E V]Y LIKELY TO LEAD TO A NEW ,COLD ,W>1 AS ,RUSSIA NATURALLY FELT ?REAT5$4 ,! ?REAT BECAME MORE SEV]E :5 ,N,A,T,O 9VIT$ ,UKRA9E TO JO9 9 #bh & #b#a#c4 ,AS ,WE/]N ANALY/S RECOGNIZE1 ?AT EXT5DS ! ?REAT TO ! CORE ( ,RUSSIAN /RATEGIC CONC]NS1 A MATT] DISCUSS$1 = EXAMPLE1 BY ,JOHN ,ME>%EIM] 9 ! LEAD >TICLE 9 ! MAJOR E/ABLI%M5T J\RNAL ,=EIGN ,AFFAIRS4 

,H[EV]1 ,I DO NOT ?9K ! GOAL IS TO /OP ,RUSSIA'S REVIVAL OR TO KEEP ! MILIT>Y-9DU/RIAL COMPLEX 9TACT4 ,& ! ,UNIT$ ,/ATES C]TA9LY DOESN'T WANT A MILIT>Y CONFLICT1 :I* W\LD DE/ROY BO? SIDES 7& ! WORLD74 ,RA!R1 ,I ?9K IT'S ! NORMAL EF=T ( A GREAT P[] TO EXT5D ITS GLOBAL DOM9ANCE4 ,BUT IT DOES 9CREASE ! ?REAT ( W>1 IF ONLY BY ACCID5T1 AS ,K5NAN & O!RS PRESCI5TLY W>N$4 

,9 Y\R VIEW1 DOES A NUCLE> W> BETWE5 ! ,UNIT$ ,/ATES & ,RUSSIA REMA9 A V]Y REAL POSSIBILITY 9 TODAY'S WORLD8 

,A V]Y REAL POSSIBILITY1 & 9 FACT1 AN 9CREAS+ ONE4 ,?AT'S NOT JU/ MY JUDGM5T4 ,IT'S ALSO ! JUDGM5T ( ! EXP]TS :O SET ! ,DOOMSDAY ,CLOCK ( ! ,BULLET9 ( ,ATOMIC ,SCI5TI/S2 ( =M] DEF5SE SECRET>Y ,WILLIAM ,P]RY1 ONE ( ! MO/ EXP]I5C$ & RESPECT$ EXP]TS ON !SE MATT]S2 & ( NUM]\S O!RS :O >E BY NO MEANS SC>EMONG]S4 ,! RECORD ( NE> ACCID5TS1 :I* C\LD HAVE BE5 T]M9AL1 IS %OCK+1 NOT TO SPEAK ( V]Y DANG]\S ADV5TURISM4 ,IT IS ALMO/ MIRACUL\S ?AT WE HAVE SURVIV$ ! NUCLE> WEAPONS ]A1 & PLAY+ ) FIRE IS IRRESPONSIBLE 9 ! EXTREME4 ,9 FACT1 !SE WEAPONS %\LD BE REMOV$ FROM ! ,E>?1 AS EV5 MANY ( ! MO/ CONS]VATIVE ANALY/S RECOGNIZE--,H5RY ,KISS+]1 ,GEORGE ,%ULTZ1 & O!RS4 

,ORIG9ALLY PUBLI%$ 9 ,TRU?\T1 ,AUGU/ #a#g1 #baf 

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,*RONOLOGY 3 
,JANU>Y #c1 #bba 3 ,P>T #a1 ,*APT] #d -- ,ADD$4 
,JANU>Y #a#f1 #bbb 3 ,P>T #a1 ,*APT] #d -- ,UPDAT$4 

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