,IS ! 'PEACE ,PROCESS' ,COLLAPS+8 

,PEOPLE 3 

,AU?OR 3 ,AN>*I/ ,F$]ATION 

,TEXT 3 

,! ',PEACE ,PROCESS' 9 ! ,NOR? ( ,IREL& IS 9 S]I\S CRISIS ONCE AGA94 ,AS ,ORGANIZE6 GOES TO PR9T ,S9N ,FE9 >E BEG9N+ A SUSP5SION FROM ! MULTI-P>TY TALKS1 FOLL[+ ,UNIONI/ & ,BRITI% GOV]NM5T ASS]TIONS ?AT ! ,I,R,A HAS BREA*$ ! ,MIT*ELL ,PR9CIPLES ( NONVIOL5CE4 ,S9N ,FE91 = !IR P>T1 HAVE D5I$ BO? ?AT !Y >E REPRES5TATIVES ( ! ,I,R,A 767 & ?AT ! ,I,R,A 0CESSATION0 HAS BE5 5D$4 ,!Y TALK ( RETURN+ TO ! TABLE 0ON !IR [N T]MS04 ,:IL/ ! ,PROCESS HAS NEV] BE5 EXACTLY /ABLE1 :Y DOES IT APPE> TO HAVE GONE S]I\SLY AWRY8 

,! ASSASS9ATION BY ! ,IRI% ,NATIONAL ,LIB]ATION ,>MY ( ,LOYALI/ ,VOLUNTE] ,=CE FUHR] ,BILLY ',K+ ,RAT' ,WRI<T 9 ! ,MAZE PRISON ON ,DECEMB] #b#g? M>K$ ! TURN+ PO9T4 ,WRI<T'S DEA? WAS US$ BY ! ,L,V,F AS AN EXCUSE TO LAUN* A CAMPAIGN ( SECT>IAN MURD] AGA9/ WORK+ CLASS ,CA?OLICS4 ,! NOTION1 H[EV]1 ?AT ! MURD]S ( ! LIKES ( TAXI DRIV]S ,L>RY ,BR5NAN & ,JOHN ,MC,COLGAN W]E SOMEH[ M]ELY 'REV5GE' OR 'REACTIVE' KILL+S IS V]Y WIDE ( ! M>K4 ,RA!R1 ! ,L,V,F1 ) ! ASSI/ANCE ( ELEM5TS 9 ! ,U,D,A1 US$ ! DEA? ( !IR LEAD] TO 9T5SIFY !IR SECT>IAN MURD] CAMPAIGN :I* HAD ALREADY TAK5 ! LIVES ( NUM]\S 9NOC5T ,CA?OLICS DUR+ #a#i#i#g1 & TO ATTEMPT TO WRECK ! TALKS PROCESS4 ,:E!R 9DE$1 ,WRI<T'S DEA? WAS CONNIV$ AT BY =CES )9 ! /ATE1 = :OM ! BREAKD[N ( ! ',PEACE ,PROCESS' W\LD BE WELCOM$1 REMA9S TO BE SE54 

,:AT IS CLE>1 H[EV]1 IS ?AT ANTI-',PEACE ,PROCESS' ELEM5TS ON BO? SIDES HAVE HAD AN IMPACT \T ( PROPORTION TO !IR 7ALBEIT GR[+7 NUMB]S4 

,FUNDAM5TALI/ 

  

,ON ! ,LOYALI/ SIDE1 ! ,L,V,F1 :O APP>5TLY REJECT$ OV]TURES FROM ! ,UL/] ,VOLUNTE] ,=CE TO REJO9 ! FOLD %ORTLY BE=E ,WRI<T'S DEA?1 HAVE BE5 RECRUIT+ \TSIDE ( !IR ,PORTAD[N BASE & HAVE OBVI\SLY ATTRACT$ ,U,D,A _/,UL/] ,FRE$OM ,FI<T]S4 ,A WORK+ RELATION%IP HAS DEVELOP$ :I* WE PROBABLY HAV5'T SE5 ! LA/ (4 ,! ,L,V,F HAS NO 'POLITICAL' W+ BECAUSE ,PAISLEY'S ,DEMOCRATIC ,UNIONI/ ,P>TY1 ) ITS REJECTION ( ! ',PEACE ,PROCESS' & ITS OLD TIME ,PROTE/ANT FUNDAM5TALISM1 S]VES ?AT FUNCTION QUITE NICELY4 

,! ,L,V,F HAS V[$ TO TAKE ! FI<T AGA9/ ! 'SELL\T' ( ,UL/] TO ! #bf C\NTIES & HAS ALREADY ATTEMPT$ AN UNSUCCESSFUL BOMB+ ( A ,G>DAI /ATION 9 ,DROMAD1 ,C\NTY ,L\?4 ,ITS MA9 FIELD ( OP]ATION WILL1 H[EV]1 REMA9 ! SIX C\NTIES4 

,MEAN:ILE1 ON ! ,REPUBLICAN SIDE1 T5SION IS C]TA9LY RIS+ AS DISS5SION ON ! ',PEACE ,PROCESS' GR[S4 ,! ,9,L,A CLAIM$ RESPONSIBILITY = ! KILL+ ( ,U,D,A COMM&] ,JIM ,GU9EY 

ON ,JANU>Y #a#i? & HAS REAFFIRM$ ITS COMMITM5T TO ! >M$ /RUGGLE1 DESPITE SOME SUPPORT = A TACTICAL CEASE-FIRE AMONG ! ,IRI% ,REPUBLICAN ,SOCIALI/ ,P>TY LEAD]%IP4 ,! ,9,L,A1 H[EV]1 >E NOT ! MA9 CONC]N ( ?OSE 9 ! 'UN>M$ /RATEGY' ,S9N ,FE9 LEAD]%IP4 ,! MA9 '?REAT' TO ! LEAD]%IP ( ,S9N ,FE9 LIES 9 ! ,I,R,A ITSELF & ! GR[? ( DISS5T AMONG ! RANK & FILE ( ! ,REPUBLICAN ,MOVEM5T4 

,9T]NAL ,SETTLEM5T 

  

,! LIKELIHOOD (1 AT BE/1 SOME SORT ( ',9T]NAL ,SETTLEM5T' FEATUR+ CONT9U$ P>TITION BUT NEW1 CROSS-BORD] BODIES ) LIMIT$ BUT TANGIBLE P[]S & A 'RE=M+' ( ! ,NOR!RN ,IREL& /ATELET1 HAS L$ TO ELEM5TS )9 BO? ,S9N ,FE9 & ! ,I,R,A REJECT+ ! ',PEACE ,PROCESS'4 ,?IS YE>S ,>D ,FHEIS ( ,S9N ,FE9 MAY SEE !SE ELEM5TS ATTEMPT TO OP5LY *ALL5GE ! LEAD]%IP4 ,AT ! =EFRONT ( !SE WILL BE ! #cb ,C\NTY ,SOV]EIGNTY ,COMMITTEE1 :O C\NT ,B]NADETTE ,S&S ,MC,KEVITT1 SI/] ( #aiha HUNG]-/RIK] ,BOBBY ,S&S1 AS ONE ( !IR SPOKESP]SONS1 BUT O!R CRITICS ( ! LEAD]%IP >E DEVELOP+ & ! POSSIBILITY ( A SPLIT1 IF NOT IMM$IATELY !N LAT] 9 ! YE>1 IS NOT UN?9KABLE44 ,:]E SU* A SPLIT W\LD GO FROM !RE IS NOT SO OBVI\S1 ! ONLY READY-MADE ALT]NATIVE BE+ ! AB/5TIONI/ ,REPUBLICAN ,S9N ,FE94 

,! BOMB+S ( ,MOIRA & ,PORTAD[N AT ! 5D ( ,FEBRU>Y 1 LIKE ! MASSIVE C>-BOMB 9 ,5NISKILL5 ON ,JANU>Y #b#d?1 W\LD APPE> TO BE ! WORK ( ! ,CONT9UITY ,IRI% ,REPUBLICAN ,>MY1 ! P>AMILIT>Y =CE ASSOCIAT$ ) ,REPUBLICAN ,S9N ,FE94 ,AL?\< NO GR\P HAS CLAIM$ RESPONSIBILITY & ! ,I,R,A HAS MADE A PO9T ( DI/ANC+ ITSELF FROM ! BOMB+S1 ! POSSIBILITY EXI/S ?AT ! ,C,I,R,A WAS ASSI/$ BY ELEM5TS REC5TLY RESIGN$ FROM ! ,I,R,A OR EV5 /ILL NOM9ALLY P>T ( IT4 ,IF ?IS IS ! CASE !N ! POT5TIAL SPLIT 9 ,S9N ,FE9 C\LD BE MIRROR$ 9 ! ,I,R,A4 ,! OPTION = ! PRO ',PROCESS' MAJORITY !N W\LD BE TO EI!R SIL5CE ! 'SPLITT]S' OR FACE !IR PROBABLE EXCLUSION =M ! TALKS &1 !RE=E1 ! 5D ( ! ',PEACE ,PROCESS' 9 ITS CURR5T =M4 ,! LIKELIHOOD ( A 'SETTLEM5T'1 ( :ATEV] K9D1 BY ,MAY #aiih IS NOT EXACTLY /RONG4 

,:ATEV] DEVELOPS1 ONE ?+ REMA9S C]TA91 ?AT IS ?AT :5 ! GUNFIRE DIES D[N & ! RUBBLE IS CLE>$ AWAY ! BODIES ON ! FLOOR WILL CONT9UE TO BE ! WORK+ CLASS ( ,IREL& & NOT ?OSE ( ITS EXPLOIT]S & LEAD]S4 

7,S\RCE3 ,RETRIEV$ ON ,MAY #a#d1 #bac FROM WEB4>*IVE4ORG47 

,FROM 3 ,!,AN>*I/,LIBR>Y4ORG4 

,*RONOLOGY 3 
,JANU>Y #a#f1 #bbb 3 ,IS ! 'PEACE ,PROCESS' ,COLLAPS+8 -- ,ADD$4 

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