,*APT] #d 
,W> ,/ORIES 

,PEOPLE 3 

,AU?OR 3 ,C>NE ,ROSS 

,TEXT 3 

#d4 ,W,> ,/,O,R,I,E,S 

,W,M,D & ,NOBLE ,HALF-,TRU?S 

,YE>S AFT] ! ,UNIT$ ,/ATES & ,BRITA9 9VAD$ ,IRAQ1 ! WORLD REMA9S POL>IZ$ OV] ! W>4 ,SUPPORT]S ?\<T IT NECESS>Y1 :ILE MANY OPPON5TS BELIEVE A FALSE CASE WAS DELIB]ATELY MANUFACTUR$ = IT4.<#b.> 

,?IS ALLEGATION HAS BE5 RE9=C$ BY ! DISCOV]Y ( A PUTATIVE 9TELLECTUAL JU/IFICATION = SU* DECEIT1 ! IDEA ( ! 0NOBLE LIE0 PROPAGAT$ BY ! LATE ,UNIV]SITY ( ,*ICAGO PHILOSOPH] ,LEO ,/RAUSS1 ONE ( ! /RONGE/ 9TELLECTUAL 9FLU5CES ON ! NEO-CONS]VATIVES4 ,ACCORD+ TO ,/RAUSS1 ELITES 9 LIB]AL SOCIETIES MU/ SOMETIMES CREATE 0MY?S0 TO HOLD ?OSE SOCIETIES TOGE!R1 = FE> ?AT !Y W\LD O!RWISE COLLAPSE ?R\< SELFI%NESS & 9DIVIDUALISM4 

,ONE SU* MY? IS ! 5EMY1 ! ?REAT1 ! ID5TIFICATION & COMBAT+ ( :I* =CES SOCIETY TO COH]E & UNITE4 ,ONCE ?AT 5EMY WAS ! ,SOVIET ,UNION & COMMUNISM2 TODAY IT IS ,AL-,QA$A & ,SADDAM ,HUSSE9'S WEAPONS ( MASS DE/RUCTION4 

,?IS IS A BIG ALLEGATION & IT IS A TOXIC DISPUTE1 POISON\S TO BO? DOME/IC & 9T]NATIONAL REPUTATIONS1 ! CAUSE ( BO? ANGRY ACCUSATION & EQUALLY BITT] REBUTTAL4 ,BUT P]HAPS ! /ORY ( SANCTIONS POLICYMAK+ 9 ! ,SECURITY ,C\NCIL CAN HELP ?R[ LI<T ON ! >GUM5T4 

,:ILE ! TWO 0SIDES0 9 ! ,SECURITY ,C\NCIL COMPOS$ 9COMPATIBLE N>RATIVES ( :AT WAS GO+ ON ) SANCTIONS AGA9/ ,IRAQ1 BO? COMPRIS$ & RE9=C$ BY P>TIAL SELECTIONS ( FACTS1 SOME?+ SIMIL> WAS GO+ ON 9 ! /ORY ( ,IRAQ & ITS WEAPONS ( MASS DE/RUCTION4 ,?IS NEI!R CONFIRMS NOR FULLY REFUTES ! 0NOBLE LIE0 !SIS ( DELIB]ATE DECEIT4 ,IT SUGGE/S1 RA!R1 A MORE COMPLEX & SUBTLE1 & IF ANY?+ MORE DI/URB+1 /ORY4 

,H]E ! BASIS ( EVID5CE WAS NOT ! ,U,N1 ,N,G,O OR O!R REPORTS ON SANCTIONS OR SANCTIONS-BU/+1 MANY ( :I* SUFF]$ !IR [N PECULI> BIASES & FLAWS1 BUT A RES\RCE ?AT IS UNAVOIDABLY UNRELIABLE1 NAMELY SECRET 9TELLIG5CE4 ,P>TICUL>LY AFT] 9SPECTORS W]E )DRAWN 9 LATE #a#i#i#h1 ! AVAILABLE 9TELLIG5CE ON ,IRAQ WAS SEV]ELY LIMIT$4 ,:ATEV] ,SADDAM HAD OR DID1 HE CONCEAL$ UND] RO(S OR UND]GR\ND1 & !RE IS NO AIRCRAFT OR SATELLITE CAM]A YET 9V5T$ ?AT CAN P5ETRATE !RE4 

,BO? ! ,UNIT$ ,/ATES & ,BRITA9 W]E ?US =C$ TO RELY ON ?AT MO/ UNRELIABLE REPORT] ( FACTS -- HUMAN BE+S 7OR 0HUM9T0 AS IT IS KN[N74 ,9 ADDITION1 !RE WAS ! EXP]T KN[L$GE ( ! MANY 9SPECTORS :O HAD VISIT$ ,IRAQ'S ,W,M,D SITES & SPOK5 ) ,IRAQI (FICIALS & SCI5TI/S4 ,DESPITE !SE DIFFICULTIES1 ! PICTURE ?AT EM]G$ 9 ! LATE #a#i#iS & 9TO #bb WAS REASONABLY CONSI/5T4 

,?IS WAS ?AT ,IRAQ WAS NOT RE>M+ TO ANY GREAT EXT5T1 ?AT !RE W]E /ILL QUE/IONS AB\T ITS DISPOSAL ( PA/ /OCKS ( WEAPONS1 BUT 9 SUMM>Y ?AT ! POLICY ( CONTA9M5T WAS WORK+4 ,9EVITABLY1 !RE W]E UNANSW]$ QUE/IONS -- UNCONFIRM$ REPORTS ( ATTEMPT$ IMPORTS ( DUAL-USE MAT]IALS ?AT MI<T BE US$ TO PRODUCE ,W,M,D & POSSIBILITIES ?AT ! UNACC\NT$-= DOZ5 OR SO ,SCUD MISSILES MI<T /ILL EXI/ & BE REASSEMBL$ 7NOT ONE WAS F\ND PO/W>74 ,BUT !RE WAS NO?+ ?AT W\LD SUGGE/ SIGNIFICANT RE>MAM5T OR 9T5T TO ATTACK ,IRAQ'S NEI<BORS1 LET ALONE ,BRITA94 ,! ,BUTL] ,REPORT.<#b#a.> GIVES A SIMIL> ACC\NT4 

,YET1 BY ,SEPTEMB] #b#b1 BO? ! ,U,S & ,U,K GOV]NM5TS W]E CLAIM+ ?AT ,IRAQ WAS A SIGNIFICANT ?REAT1 CIT+ CLE> & AU?ORITATIVE 9TELLIG5CE EVID5CE ( RE>MAM5T & ATTEMPTS TO ACQUIRE NUCLE>1 BIOLOGICAL & *EMICAL WEAPONS4 ,! ,U,S GOV]NM5T W5T FUR!R1 SUGGE/+ ?AT ,SADDAM ,HUSSE91 ,AL-,QA$A & #i_/#a#a W]E SOMEH[ CONNECT$4 ,BU% BEGAN TO JUXTAPOSE ,AL-,QA$A & ,SADDAM ,HUSSE9 9 ADJAC5T S5T5CES1 NEV] QUITE CLAIM+ A PROV5 CONNECTION1 BUT DELIB]ATELY IMPLY+ SOME K9D ( L9K4 ,! IMPLICATION1 /ILL REPEAT$ TO ?IS DAY BY MEMB]S ( ! ,BU% ADM9I/RATION1 WAS REFUT$ BY ! #i_/#a#a ,COMMISSION4 ,EV5 AT ! TIME ( ! W>1 ,BRITA9'S ,SECRET ,9TELLIG5CE ,S]VICE 7,S,I,S7 LET IT BE KN[N PUBLICLY ?AT ?IS SUGGE/ION HAD NO F\NDATION4 

,9 ,! ,/RUCTURE ( ,SCI5TIFIC ,REVOLUTIONS1 ,?OMAS ,KUHN CITES A NUMB] ( /UDIES :]E SCI5TI/S ) DIFF]5T P>ADIGMATIC VIEWS OBS]VE DIFF]5T PATT]NS 9 ! SAME DATA -- :AT HE CALLS A SWIT* 9 ! VISUAL ,GE/ALT4 ,= EXAMPLE1 LOOK+ AT A CONT\R MAP1 A /UD5T SEES L9ES ON A PAP]1 A C>TOGRAPH] A PICTURE ( T]RA94 ,ONLY ONCE TRA9$ WILL ! /UD5T SEE ! SAME AS ! C>TOGRAPH]1 EV5 ?\< ! DATA HE IS OBS]V+ HAVE NOT *ANG$4 

,BO? ! ,BRITI% ,PRIME ,M9I/]1 TO ! ,BUTL] ,REVIEW1 & ! =M] ,U,S ,DEF5SE ,SECRET>Y ,DONALD ,RUMSFELD HAVE ADMITT$ PUBLICLY 7LONG AFT] ! W>7 ?AT :AT *ANG$ BE=E ! W> WAS NOT ! EVID5CE ( ,IRAQI WEAPONS BUT1 9 ! NEW PO/-#i_/#a#a LI<T1 ! APPRAISAL ( ?AT EVID5CE4 ,! ,PRIME ,M9I/] TOLD ! ,BUTL] ,REVIEW3 0AFT] ,SEPTEMB] #a#a? IT TOOK ON A COMPLETELY DIFF]5T ASPECT444:AT *ANG$ = ME ) ,SEPTEMB] #a#a? WAS ?AT ,I ?\<T !N Y\ HAVE TO *ANGE Y\R M9DSET444Y\ HAVE TO GO \T & GET AFT] ! DIFF]5T ASPECTS ( ?IS ?REAT444Y\ HAVE TO DEAL ) ?IS BECAUSE O!RWISE ! ?REAT WILL GR[44404 

,?IS R+S TRUE & IS UND]/&ABLE4 ,AN EV5T ( ! HORROR & MAGNITUDE ( #i_/#a#a %\LD HAVE *ANG$ \R APPRECIATION ( ! DANG]S ( ,W,M,D & NONCOMPLIANCE ) 9T]NATIONAL LAW4 ,IT REPRES5T$1 = GOOD OR ILL1 A P>ADIGM %IFT 9 ! WAY \R LEAD]S SAW ! WORLD4 ,BUT IT APPE>S ?AT NOT ONLY DID ! APPRAISAL *ANGE BUT SO1 CRUCIALLY1 DID ! PRES5TATION ( ?AT APPRAISAL1 & ! EVID5CE JU/IFY+ IT TO ! PUBLIC4 

,NO D\BT O!R FACTORS W]E AT PLAY4 ,!RE IS A T5D5CY 9 GOV]NM5T TO SEE 9TELLIG5CE MAT]IAL AS BE+ AT ! P9NACLE ( ! HI]>*Y ( 9=MATION4 ,UNLIKE ! VOLUM9\S FL[ ( DIPLOMATIC TELEGRAMS1 MEMOS & OP5-S\RCE 9=MATION ?AT HITS COMPUT]S ON DESKS ACROSS GOV]NM5T EV]Y DAY1 9TELLIG5CE >RIVES 9 SLIM FOLD]S1 ADORN$ ) COLORFUL /ICK]S ANN\NC+ NOT ONLY ! SECRECY ( ! 9=MATION !RE9 BUT ! RE/RICT$ CIRCULATION IT 5JOYS4 ,! IMPRESSION ?US GIV51 A PRODUCT ( !SE ES!TICS1 IS ( ACCESS TO ! REAL ?+1 ! SECRET CORE D5I$ TO ALL BUT ! ELITE FEW4 

,HI/ORY GIVES AN 9T]E/+ EXAMPLE ( ?IS PH5OM5ON1 NAMELY ! CASE ( ! ,Z9OVIEV LETT]4 ,9 #aibd ,BRITA9'S ,=EIGN ,(FICE WAS S5T A COPY ( A LETT]1 PURPORT+ TO COME FROM ,GRIGORI ,Z9OVIEV1 ! PRESID5T ( ! ,SOVIET ,COM9T]N1 ADDRESS$ TO ! C5TRAL COMMITTEE ( ! ,COMMUNI/ ,P>TY ( ,GREAT ,BRITA94 ,! LETT] URG$ ! P>TY TO /IR UP ! ,BRITI% PROLET>IAT 9 PREP>ATION = CLASS W>4 ,! LETT] !N APPE>$ 9 ! PRESS1 CAUS+ IMM5SE POLITICAL & DIPLOMATIC REP]CUSSIONS4 ,IT WAS A MAJOR EMB>RASSM5T = ! ,PRIME ,M9I/]1 ,RAMSAY ,MAC,DONALD1 & ! GOV]N+ ,LABOR ,P>TY4 ,! OPPOSITION ,CONS]VATIVES WON ! G5]AL ELECTION F\R DAYS LAT]4 ,RELATIONS BETWE5 ,BRITA9 & ! ,SOVIET ,UNION S\R$1 & ,ANGLO-,SOVIET TREATIES W]E AB&ON$4 

,ONLY 9 #a#i#i#i1 :5 ! !N ,=EIGN ,SECRET>Y ,ROB9 ,COOK ORD]$ AN 9VE/IGATION ( ,BRITA9'S (FICIAL >*IVES1 WAS IT CONFIRM$ ?AT ! ,Z9OVIEV LETT] WAS A FAKE4 ,! FAKE WAS BELIEV$ AS G5U9E BY ! ,=EIGN ,(FICE1 ! >*IVES REVEAL$1 BECAUSE IT CAME FROM ! ,SECRET ,9TELLIG5CE ,S]VICE 7?IS AN OBS]VATION FROM ! ,=EIGN ,(FICE'S [N >*IVAL 9VE/IGATION74 

,AN ADDITIONAL FACTOR 9 ,IRAQ WAS ALSO ?AT MANY ( ! HUMAN S\RCES ( 9TELLIG5CE HAD AN UND]/&ABLE 9T]E/ 9 EXAGG]AT+ :AT !Y W]E REPORT+1 NOT LEA/ BECAUSE !Y WANT$ TO 5C\RAGE ! OV]?R[ ( A REGIME !Y HAT$4 ,! ROLE ( ! ,IRAQI ,NATIONAL ,CONGRESS1 ! KEY ,IRAQI OPPOSITION GR\P BE=E ! W>1 9 PROVID+ 0HUM9T0 IS N[ WELL-KN[N4 ,BUT1 9T]E/+LY1 ! ,BUTL] ,REVIEW DISC\NTS ?IS FACTOR1 PO9T+ 9/EAD TO ! ,S,I,S'S FAILURE TO VALIDATE ITS S\RCES PROP]LY1 ! LONG REPORT+ *A9S & ! S\RCES' LACK ( EXP]TIZE ON :AT !Y W]E REPORT+4 

,BACK 9 ! CAPITALS1 !RE IS MEAN:ILE AN 9VISIBLE UND]T[ AT WORK ON ! CIVIL S]VANTS :O COLLATE & ANALYZE ?IS 9=MATION4 ,IF M9I/]S WANT A P>TICUL> /ORY TO EM]GE1 IT HAS A WAY ( EM]G+3 ! FACTS >E MADE TO FIT ! POLICY4 ,IT TAKES A BRAVE IF NOT FOOLH>DY CIVIL S]VANT TO RESI/ ?IS TIDE4 ,?IS IS NOT TO CLAIM ?AT !RE WAS SOME SECRET CUBICLE 9 ,:ITEHALL 7OR ,WA%+TON7 :]E EVID5CE ( ,IRAQ'S WEAPONS WAS DELIB]ATELY FABRICAT$1 BUT SOME?+ MORE SUBTLE3 EVID5CE IS SELECT$ FROM ! AVAILABLE MASS1 CONTRADICTIONS >E EXCIS$1 & ! SELECT$ DATA >E REPEAT$1 REPHRAS$1 POLI%$ 7& SPUN1 IF Y\ PREF]71 UNTIL IT SEEMS NEAT1 COH]5T & CONV9C+1 TO ! EXT5T ?AT ?OSE PRES5T+ IT MAY BELIEVE IT FULLY !MSELVES4 

,ALL ( !SE REASONS WILL HAVE CONTRIBUT$ TO A CONSID]ABLE BIAS 9 ! 9=MATION ?AT ! GOV]NM5T RECEIV$ & ! ANALYZES !N PRODUC$ ON ,IRAQ'S ,W,M,D4 ,ALL ( !SE REASONS %\LD HAVE 9SPIR$ CAUTION2 ANY ASSESSM5T BAS$ ON SU* 9=MATION %\LD HAVE BE5 HEAVILY CAVEAT$4 ,BUT1 AS ! ,BUTL] ,REPORT RELATES1 9/EAD ( TRANSMITT+ !SE CAVEATS 9 ITS PUBLIC PRES5TATIONS1 SU* AS ! 9FAM\S ,NUMB] #a DOSSI]1 ! GOV]NM5T LEFT !M \T4 ,:AT WAS BROADCA/ TO ! PUBLIC WAS 9 EFFECT NOT ! SUMMIT ( A HI]>*Y ( 9=MATION BUT A SELECTION FROM A SPECTRUM ( 9=MATION1 A SPECTRUM ?AT RANG$ FROM ! WELL-E/ABLI%$ TO ! HI<LY SPECULATIVE1 & ! SELECTION CAME FROM ! WRONG 5D4 ,JU/ AS ,I ONCE PRODUC$ ONE-SID$ >GUM5TS TO JU/IFY SANCTIONS BY IGNOR+ ALL CONTR>Y EVID5CE1 ! GOV]NM5T PRODUC$ A HI<LY ONE-SID$ ACC\NT ( 9H]5TLY UNRELIABLE 9=MATION4 

,( C\RSE GOV]NM5TS 9 ALL DEMOCRACIES PUT =W>D ONE-SID$ ACC\NTS ( POLICY4 ,ECONOMIC /ATI/ICS >E ALWAYS PRES5T$ ) ! POSITIVE NUMB]S 9 ! =EFRONT1 ! NEGATIVE SIDEL9$ TO FOOTNOTES OR IGNOR$4 ,CIVIL S]VANTS >E HI<LY SKILL$ 9 SLANT+ 9=MATION 9 ?IS WAY4 ,BUT !RE %\LD BE LIMITS4 ,:5 SEEK+ TO JU/IFY MILIT>Y ACTION1 ! GOV]NM5T HAS A DUTY TO TELL ! :OLE TRU?1 NOT JU/ A P>TIAL ACC\NT ( IT4 

,SOME?+ ELSE WAS GO+ ON TOO4 ,AS ! DRUMS ( W> BEAT L\D] 9 ,WA%+TON1 BO? ! ,U,S & ,U,K GOV]NM5TS BECAME MORE /RID5T 9 DISMISS+ CONTA9M5T OR O!R ALT]NATIVES TO ALL-\T 9VASION4 ,BU% DECL>$ SANCTIONS TO BE AS FULL ( HOLES AS A ,SWISS *EESE2 ! ,PRIME ,M9I/]1 ,TONY ,BLAIR1 EV5 ONCE1 BIZ>RELY1 >GU$ ?AT MILIT>Y ACTION WAS PREF]ABLE TO ! DI/RESS CAUS$ BY SANCTIONS4 ,SANCTIONS W]E CRUMBL+1 ! PUBLIC WAS TOLD 7AS IT /ILL IS TODAY74 ,!SE GOV]NM5TS GAVE ! IMPRESSION ?AT ALL ALT]NATIVES HAD BE5 EXHAU/$2 W> WAS ! ONLY OPTION4 

,?IS WAS NOT 9 FACT ! CASE4 ,!RE WAS A VIABLE ALT]NATIVE4 ,EFFECTIVE ACTION TO SEIZE ,SADDAM ,HUSSE9'S ILLEGAL F9ANCIAL ASSETS & BLOCK OIL SMUGGL+ W\LD HAVE D5I$ HIM ! RES\RCES :I* SU/A9$ HIS P[]3 SANCTIONS ON ! REGIME1 & NOT ITS LONG-SUFF]+ PEOPLE4 ,= MANY YE>S BE=E ! W> ?IS ALT]NATIVE WAS UN=TUNATELY NEV] PURSU$ ) ! NECESS>Y 5]GY OR COMMITM5T4 ,! REASONS = ?IS >E NOT IMM$IATELY OBVI\S4 

,SU* A POLICY W\LD HAVE REQUIR$ CONSI/5T PRESSURE ACROSS ! REGION1 APPLI$ TO ALL ( ,IRAQ'S NEI<BORS4 ,&1 = DIFF]5T REASONS 9 EA* CASE1 IT WASN'T PURSU$ ) SUFFICI5T VIGOR4 ,S5IOR 5VOYS & M9I/]S ONLY R>ELY OR HALF-HE>T$LY M5TION$ SMUGGL+ 9 BILAT]AL CONTACTS1 !REBY IMPLY+ TOL]ATION4 ,GRADUALLY IT CAME TO BE UND]/OOD ?AT C]TA9 ( ,IRAQ'S NEI<BORS W]E 0ALL[$0 TO IMPORT ILLEGAL OIL1 UND]M9+ ATTEMPTS TO DEAL ) EV5 ! MO/ EGREGI\S SANCTIONS-BU/]S4 

,MEAN:ILE1 BACK 9 ! ,SECURITY ,C\NCIL1 ANY ATTEMPT WE MADE TO PROPOSE COLLECTIVE ACTION AGA9/ SMUGGL+ WAS 9V>IABLY BLOCK$ BY ,FRANCE OR ,RUSSIA1 ON ! ALLEG$ GR\NDS ?AT !RE WAS 9SUFFICI5T PRO( ( ! SMUGGL+1 OR ?AT SU* ACTION MI<T FUR!R H>M ,IRAQ'S PEOPLE4 ,I LO/ C\NT ( ! NUMB] ( TIMES WE 9S]T$ PROVISIONS = SANCTIONS-MONITOR+ UNITS1 OR O!R EXHORTATIONS = ACTION1 9TO DRAFT ,C\NCIL RESOLUTIONS1 ONLY TO HAVE DIPLOMATS FROM !SE C\NTRIES /RIKE !M \T 9 NEGOTIATION 7AS VETO-WIELD+ P]MAN5T MEMB]S1 !IR ACQUIESC5CE WAS ESS5TIAL = EV]Y DOT & COMMA74 ,! ,U,S & ,U,K GOV]NM5TS N[ LIKE TO CLAIM ?AT ?IS WAS ! REASON SANCTIONS FAIL$ 7:5 9 D\BT1 BLAME ! ,FR5*72 SOME EV5 CLAIM ?AT ! ,U,N ITSELF CONNIV$ AT CORRUPTION TO B5EFIT ,SADDAM ,HUSSE9 7AN ALLEGATION = :I* !RE IS SCANT EVID5CE74.<#b#b.> ,BUT1 9 TRU?1 WE TOO EX]T$ PRECI\S LITTLE 5]GY TO 5=CE CONTROLS4 ,:ILE 9 ,NEW ,YORK WE >GU$ \RSELVES HO>SE 9 NEGOTIATION1 ,WA%+TON & ,LONDON R>ELY LIFT$ A F+] TO PRESSURE ,IRAQ'S NEI<BORS TO /EM ! ILLEGAL FL[S4 

,AN EFFECTIVE ANTI-SMUGGL+ POLICY W\LD HAVE REQUIR$ AN OV]->*+ & LONG-T]M /RATEGY1 ADDRESS+ PROBLEMS 9 A V>IETY ( DIFF]5T >EAS RANG+ FROM ILLEGAL BANK ACC\NTS TO CROSS-BORD] OIL SMUGGL+4 ,SU* A /RATEGY WAS NEV] IMPLEM5T$4 ,9/EAD !RE W]E PIECEMEAL & 9EFFECTIVE EF=TS4 

,I SUSPECT ?AT ! REASON = ?IS P]HAPS LIES 9 ! UNIV]SAL HUMAN TRU? ?AT :AT CAN BE LEFT UNTIL LAT] USUALLY IS1 UNTIL IT IS TOO LATE4 ,! POLICY WAS DIFFICULT1 COMPLEX & UNFA%IONABLE1 DEM&+ EXT5SIVE /UDY TO MA/] & DISCUSS1 A LUXURY ?AT BUSY M9I/]S & S5IOR (FICIALS DO NOT 5JOY4 ,IT WAS NEV] ! FIR/ OR MO/ GLAM\R\S PRIORITY1 SO IT WAS ALL[$ TO SLIDE4 

,9 ! 5D1 :5 CONTRA/$ ) ! COMPLEXITY & UNC]TA9TY ( ! ALT]NATIVES1 W> MAY HAVE SEEM$ SIMPL]4 ,9 ! /RANGE WAY ?AT GOV]NM5TS >E SWEPT ALONG BY EV5TS )\T PROP]LY /OPP+ TO ?9K1 W> CAME TO BE SE5 AS ! ONLY VIABLE C\RSE1 A CURR5T NO D\BT /R5G!N$ 9 ,BRITA9 BY ! CLE> DET]M9ATION 9 ,WA%+TON1 N[ AMPLY *RONICL$ 79 ,BOB ,WOODW>D'S ,PLAN ( ,ATTACK1 AMONG O!RS71 TO PURSUE CONFLICT4 

,IT W\LD UND\BT$LY HAVE TAK5 CONSID]ABLE POLITICAL & DIPLOMATIC EF=T TO CORRAL ,IRAQ'S NEI<BORS & O!R /ATES 9TO ?IS ALT]NATE C\RSE4 ,IT W\LD NOT HAVE HAD ! B9>Y CL>ITY ( W9N+ OR LOS+ A W>4 ,BUT ?IS EF=T W\LD C]TA9LY HAVE BE5 LESS ?AN ?AT ( GO+ TO W>1 & IT HAD ! REAL POT5TIAL TO REMOVE ! REGIME BY CUTT+ AWAY ! FUNDS ?AT SU/A9$ IT4 ,ABOVE ALL1 ?IS APPROA* W\LD NOT HAVE 9CURR$ ! SACRIFICE ( ,IRAQI1 ,BRITI%1 ,AM]ICAN & O!R LIVES4 

,IF ,IRAQ WAS NOT A ?REAT & NOT COLLABORAT+ ) T]RORI/S1 :Y DID ! ,BU% & ,BLAIR GOV]NM5TS GO TO W> ) IT8 ,SEV]AL PLAUSIBLE EXPLANATIONS HAVE BE5 (F]$ BY O!RS3 ! ,U,S ADM9I/RATION'S NE$ AFT] #i_/#a#a TO DEMON/RATE ITS P[] -- ANY:]E1 ANYH[2 A MISSION CIVILISATRICE TO DEMOCRATIZE ! WORLD BY =CE1 AN IMPULSE GIV5 /R5G? BY ! VIGOR\S & =CEFUL LOBBY ( ! ,IRAQI OPPOSITION4 ,BUT LESS CR$IBLE1 GIV5 ! RECORD ON SANCTIONS1 IS ! CLAIM ?AT ! WELF>E ( ! ,IRAQI PEOPLE WAS ! PRIM>Y CONC]N4 

,ANO!R POSSIBLE EXPLANATION LIES 9 ! MORE S9I/] MOTIVES ( OIL & ITS CONTROL4 ,! PROSPECT ( ,IRAQ'S HUGE RES]VES 7! SECOND L>GE/ 9 ! WORLD7 HUNG 9 ! AIR ?R\<\T ! POLICY DELIB]ATIONS 9 ! YE>S BE=E ! W>4 ,IT WAS WELL-KN[N ?AT ,SADDAM ,HUSSE9 HAD ALLOCAT$ ALL ! MASSIVELY LUCRATIVE PO/-SANCTIONS EXPLORATION CONTRACTS TO ,FR5*1 ,*9ESE1 ,RUSSIAN & O!R NON-,U,S & NON-,BRITI% COMPANIES 7& IT BO!R$ ! COMPANIES A LOT1 AS !Y W\LD TELL US74 ,IT IS H>D TO BELIEVE ?AT ! IMM5SE POT5TIAL = MONEY-MAK+ & 5]GY SECURITY DID NOT EX]T SOME PULL 9 ! DECISION TO 9VADE1 BUT ! EVID5CE = SOME SORT ( CONSPIRACY L$ BY ,BIG ,OIL IS H>D TO COME BY4 ,BUT AGA91 WE DO NOT KN[1 BECAUSE WE HAVE NOT BE5 TOLD4 ,9/EAD WE W]E GIV5 NOT ! 0NOBLE LIE01 BUT ! SOME:AT LESS-?AN-NOBLE HALF-TRU?4 ,! FULL ANSW] WILL P]HAPS BE REVEAL$ BY ! *IEF PROTAGONI/S 9 YE>S TO COME4 ,= N[1 ALL WE CAN KN[ = SURE IS ?AT ! EMPIRICAL REASONS !SE GOV]NM5TS HAVE GIV5 SO F> SIMPLY DO NOT ADD UP4 

,P]HAPS1 !RE=E1 A NON-EMPIRICAL REASON IS AT ! HE>T ( ?IS4 ,!Y DID IT BECAUSE !Y ?\<T IT WAS RI<T4 ,SADDAM ,HUSSE9 WAS A BAD MAN1 A POT5TIAL DANG] 9 ! FUTURE1 NOT TODAY4 ,& ?IS1 IF TRUE1 IS A LEGITIMATE REASON1 OR AT LEA/ >GUABLE4 ,UN=TUNATELY1 IT IS NEI!R ! PRIM>Y REASON BO? GOV]NM5TS GAVE ! ,U,N OR !IR PEOPLES = GO+ TO W> 7?\< BO? ,PRESID5T ,BU% & ,PRIME ,M9I/] ,BLAIR ALLUDE TO IT ) EV] GREAT] FREQU5CY71 NOR IS IT JU/IFIABLE 9 ANY CANON ( 9T]NATIONAL LAW 7AL?\< P]HAPS IT %\LD BE74 

,& H]E WE RETURN TO ,LEO ,/RAUSS3 NOT TO ! 0NOBLE LIE01 BUT TO HIS BELIEF 9 0NATURAL LAW01 A FUNDAM5TAL1 SOMETIMES RELIGI\S 7?\< ,/RAUSS1 ,I READ1 WAS AN A!I/7 S5SE ( RI<T & WRONG1 A RI<T & WRONG SUP]IOR TO ALL O!R LAWS -- 9CLUD+1 IT SEEMS 9 ?IS CASE1 9T]NATIONAL LAW4 ,BO? LEAD]S HAVE SAID 9 ! PA/ ?AT !Y BELIEVE 9 SU* RULES1 AS ,I SUSPECT MO/ ( US DO 9 SOME WAY4 ,& IT IS P]HAPS ! READ9ESS ( VOT]S1 ESPECIALLY 9 ! ,U,S1 TO ACCEPT ?IS REASON+ ?AT LIES BEH9D ! CURI\S PH5OM5ON ?AT1 AL?\< ! EVID5CE ?AT !SE GOV]NM5TS MISL$ !IR PEOPLES WAS SOON CLE>1 NEI!R ,BU% NOR ,BLAIR PAID ANY IMM$IATE POLITICAL PRICE = IT4 

,9 ! #bd PRESID5TIAL ELECTIONS ! ALLEGATION ( LY+1 NOBLE OR O!RWISE1 & ! DECID$LY AMBIGU\S C\RSE ( ! RESULT+ W> DID NOT TURN ! PEOPLE AGA9/ !IR *OS5 PRESID5T4 ,HIS 0NATURAL LAW0 >GUM5T -- ?AT IT WAS RI<T TO REMOVE ! ,IRAQI DICTATOR -- SUFFIC$1 EV5 :5 ! EMPIRICAL EVID5CE DID NOT4 ,TONY ,BLAIR LIKEWISE WAS COM=TABLY REELECT$ 9 ,BRITA9 9 #b#e4 

,POLITICAL !ORI/S ( ! TW5TY-FIR/ C5TURY HAVE MU* TO FE$ ON 9 ?IS ANALYSIS3 IT IS A /ORY RI* 9 P>ADOX & CONTRADICTION1 FROM :I* IT IS H>D TO DIV9E RATIONAL 9F]5CES OR LAWS4 ,! GOV]NM5TS DID NOT MANUFACTURE LIES1 BUT NEI!R DID !Y TELL ! TRU?1 EV5 :5 !Y ?\<T !Y DID4 ,!SE HALF-TRU?S1 MOREOV]1 BORE NO RELATION :ATEV] TO ! REAL TRU? ( :AT WAS ACTUALLY GO+ ON 9 ,IRAQ 7NO T]RORI/S1 NO ,W,M,D74 ,& 9 ! 5D1 ! ELECTORS1 9 ! NAME ( :OSE SECURITY & SAFETY ! :OLE EX]CISE WAS UND]TAK51 DO NOT SEEM TO C>E MU* EI!R WAY4 ,9 ?IS PICTURE IT SEEMS ?AT NEI!R ,/RAUSS NOR ,PLATO 7:O 9 FACT ORIG9AT$ ! 0NOBLE LIE07 NOR ANYONE ELSE IS MU* ( A GUIDE4 ,?+S SEEM ALTOGE!R LESS ORD]$ & COH]5T ?AN ANY LOGICAL ANALYSIS W\LD HAVE IT4 ,! KEY ACTORS CLAIM TO HAVE AG5CY1 TO MAKE RATIONAL DECISIONS1 BUT 9 FACT >E SWEPT ALONG BY =CES !Y CANNOT GRASP4 ,LAWS ( DEMOCRACY & MORALITY GIVE WAY3 ! LAW ( *AOS 9/EAD MU/ HOLD SWAY4 

,H]E MAY BE ! BIGGE/ MISP]CEPTION ( ALL1 ?\< NOT A LIE1 S9CE IT IS H>DLY CONSCI\S4 ,?IS IS A MISP]CEPTION -- A FICTION1 IF Y\ LIKE -- 9 :I* GOV]NM5TS & GOV]N$ COLLABORATE1 = TO BELIEVE O!RWISE IS TOO UNCOM=TABLE4 ,& ?IS IS ?AT GOV]NM5TS1 POLITICIANS & CIVIL S]VANTS >E ABLE TO OBS]VE ! WORLD )\T BIAS & DIS9T]E/$LY 9T]PRET ITS MYRIAD SIGNS 9TO FACTS & JUDGM5TS 79DE$1 9 ! ,=EIGN ,(FICE1 TELEGRAMS >E DIVID$ 9TO !SE TWO V]Y CATEGORIES3 0,DETAIL0 & 0,COMM5T07 ) AN OBJECTIVE1 ALMO/ SCI5TIFIC RIGOR4 ,! /ORY ( :AT !SE TWO GOV]NM5TS OBS]V$1 BELIEV$ & !N TOLD !IR POPULATIONS AB\T ,IRAQ SUGGE/S AN ALTOGE!R MORE IMP]FECT REALITY4 

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