,A ,T]RIBLE ,QUE/ION 

#ahif 

,PEOPLE 3 

,AU?OR 3 ,LEO ,TOL/OY 

,TRANSLATOR 3 ,NA?AN ,HASKELL ,DOLE 

,TEXT 3 

,IS !RE 9 ,RUSSIA SUFFICI5T GRA9 TO FE$ ! PEOPLE  
UNTIL ! NEW CROP IS GA!R$ 8  

,SOME SAY !RE IS1 O!RS SAY !RE IS NOT 2 BUT NO ONE  
KN[S ?IS ABSOLUTELY4 ,BUT ?IS MU/ BE KN[N1 &  
KN[N DEF9ITELY N[ BE=E ! BEG9N+ ( ! W9T]  
JU/ AS IT IS NECESS>Y = M5 :O >E GO+ (F ON A  
LONG VOYAGE TO KN[ :E!R ! %IP HAS A SUFFICI5T  
SUPPLY ( FRE% WAT] & FOOD OR NOT4  

,IT IS T]RIBLE TO ?9K :AT W\LD HAPP5 TO ! (FIC]S  
& PASS5G]S ( ! %IP :5 9 ! MIDDLE ( !  
OCEAN IT %\LD TRANSPIRE ?AT ALL ! PROVISIONS HAD GONE4  
,IT IS /ILL MORE T]RIBLE TO ?9K :AT WILL HAPP5 TO US  
IF WE BELIEVE 9 ?OSE ?AT ASSURE US ?AT WE HAVE GRA9  
5\< = ALL ! />V+1 & IT %\LD PROVE BE=E  
SPR+ ?AT !Y W]E MI/AK5 9 !IR ASSURANCES4  

,IT IS T]RIBLE TO ?9K ( ! CONSEQU5CE ( SU* A  
BLUND]4 ,:Y1 ! CONSEQU5CE ( ?IS BLUND] W\LD  
BE SOME?+ AWFUL 3 ! DEA? ( MILLIONS BY />VATION1  
&1 WOR/ ( ALL MIS=TUNES1 ! EXASP]ATION & ANG]  
( M54 ,IT IS GOOD M]ELY BY CANNON-%OTS TO W>N  
! 9HABITANTS ( ,PET]SBURG ?AT ! WAT] IS RIS+1  
BECAUSE ?AT IS ALL ?AT CAN BE DONE4 ,NO ONE KN[S1  
NO ONE CAN KN[1 H[ HI< ! WAT] WILL RISE 2 :E!R  
IT WILL /& :]E IT /OOD ! YE> BE=E1 OR REA*  
ITS LIMIT ( F\R & TW5TY YE>S AGO1 OR RISE /ILL  
HI<]4  

,! FAM9E ( ?IS YE>1 MOREOV]1 IS A MIS=TUNE 9COMP>ABLY GREAT] ?AN ! MIS=TUNE ( ! FLOOD1 9COMP>ABLY MORE UNIV]SAL1 IT ?REAT5S ALL ,RUSSIA 2 IT IS MIS=TUNE ! DEGREE ( :I* MAY & %\LD1 NOT  
ONLY BE =ESE51 BUT MAY & %\LD BE =ESE5 &  
PREV5T$4  

0 ,AH 6 ?AT WILL DO 6 ,= ,RUSSIA !RE WILL BE SUFFICI5T1 & MORE ?AN SUFFICI5T1 ( EV]Y K9D ( GRA9  
= ALL10 IS SAID & WRITT5 BY C]TA9 PEOPLE1 & O!RS  
:O LIKE FRE$OM FROM BO!R >E 9CL9$ TO BELIEVE  
?IS4 ,BUT IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO BELIEVE :AT IS SAID AT HAPHAZ>D1 OR BY CONJECTURE1 REG>D+ AN OBJECT ( SU*  
AWFUL IMPORTANCE4  

,IF IT IS SAID ?AT 9 REG>D TO ! D\BTFUL SOLIDITY (  
A BA? 9 :I* PEOPLE GO ONCE A WEEK ON A ,SATURDAY1  
! BEAMS /ILL /&1 & !RE IS NO NE$ ( REPLAC+  
!M1 ONE MAY BELIEVE !M & RISK LEAV+ ! BA?  
)\T REPAIRS 2 BUT IF IT CONC]NS ! DUBI\S CEIL+  
( A !AT] 9 :I* ?\S&S >E SITT+ EV]Y EV5+1  
! UNANIM\S DECISION WILL BE1 ?AT ?\< ! PROBABILITIES >E IT WILL NOT FALL ?IS EV5+1 /ILL ONE CANNOT  
FEEL CONFID5CE & BE AT EASE4 ,! ?REAT5$ DANG]  
IS TOO GREAT4  

,N[ ! DANG] ?REAT5+ ,RUSSIA IS ?AT ! GRA9  
NECESS>Y = ! SU/5ANCE ( ! PEOPLE IS NOT TO BE  
HAD AT ANY PRICE1 & ?IS DANG] IS SO AWFUL ?AT !  
IMAG9ATION REFUSES TO DEPICT :AT W\LD HAPP5 IF ?IS  
WAS SO2 & !RE=E TO CONT5T \RSELVES ) ! UNSUPPORT$ ASSURANCES ( ?OSE ?AT DECL>E ?AT 9  
,RUSSIA WE HAVE 5\< GRA91 NOT ONLY W\LD NOT FOLL[1  
BUT W\LD BE S5SELESS & CRIM9AL4  

,BUT DOES SU* A DANG] EXI/ 8 ,IS !RE ANY LIKELIHOOD  
?AT !RE WILL NOT BE 5\< BREAD 8  

,! FOLL[+ OBS]VATIONS MAY S]VE AS AN ANSW]  
TO ?IS QUE/ION 3  

,9 ! FIR/ PLACE1 IT IS A FACT ?AT A :OLE ?IRD ( ,RUSSIA IS ATTACK$ BY FAM9E1 & ?AT ?IRD IS ! V]Y ONE :I* HAS ALWAYS SUPPORT$ A L>GE P>T ( ! O!R TWO-?IRDS4 ,KALUGA1 ,TV]1 ,MOSC[1 ALL ! 0 BLACK E>? 0 & NOR!RN GOV]NM5TS1 EV5 ! 0BLACK E>?0 DI/RICTS ( !SE GOV]NM5TS1 :]E !RE WAS NO FAILURE 9 ! CROPS1 HAVE NEV] LIV$ ON !IR [N PRODUCTS1 BUT HAVE ALWAYS B\<T IT ( ?OSE ?AT N[ MU/ LIVE ON =EIGN GRA94  

,!RE=E1 IF IT IS RECKON$1 LET US SUPPOSE1 ?AT EA*  
P]SON MU/ HAVE T5 PUDS WELL1 LET US SAY !RE >E  
ONLY TW5TY MILLIONS ?\< !Y >E RECKON$ AS  
HI< AS =TY MILLIONS ( 9HABITANTS 9 !SE FAM9E-/RICK5 DI/RICTS1 !N TWO HUNDR$ MILLION PUDS ( GRA9  
WILL BE NE$$1 & ?IS IS F> FROM REPRES5T+ ! :OLE  
AM\NT ( GRA9 NECESS>Y = ! SU/5ANCE ( ALL  
,RUSSIA4 ,TO ?IS FIGURE MU/ BE ADD$ ALL ?AT IS NE$$  
BESIDES = ?OSE ?AT HAVE SUBSI/$ 9 =M] YE>S ON  
! GRA9 ( ! FAM9E-/RICK5 LOCALITIES1 & ?IS V]Y  
PROBABLY WILL CON/ITUTE AS MU* AGA94  

,! FAILURE ( ! H>VE/ 9 ! MO/ F]TILE PLACES  
ACCOMPLI%ES SOME?+ LIKE :AT HAPP5S :5 Y\  
%ORT5 ! >M ( A LEV] 3 Y\ NOT ONLY DIM9I% !  
P[] ( ! %ORT] 5D1 BUT Y\ 9CREASE AS MANY TIMES  
! P[] ( ! L>G] 5D4 ,A ?IRD ( ,RUSSIA IS ATTACK$ BY FAM9E1 ! MO/ F]TILE P>T1 :I* HAS F$  
! O!R TWO-?IRDS1 & !RE=E IT IS V]Y PROBABLE  
?AT !RE WILL NOT BE 5\< GRA9 = ALL4 ,?IS IS ONE  
CONSID]ATION4  

,! SECOND CONSID]ATION IS ?AT ! C\NTRIES BORD]+ ON ,RUSSIA WILL SUFF] 9 ! SAME WAY FROM FAILURE  
( H>VE/1 & ?AT !RE=E A GREAT AM\NT ( GRA9  
HAS BE5 EXPORT$1 & N[ 9 ! =M ( :EAT CONT9UES TO BE EXPORT$ ABROAD4  

,! ?IRD CONSID]ATION IS ?AT 9 ABSOLUTE CONTR>IETY  
TO :AT HAPP5$ DUR+ ! FAM9E YE>1 #a#h#d1 ?IS  
YE> !RE IS1 & CAN BE1 NO /ORES ( GRA94  

,9 ,RUSSIA SOME?+ HAS HAPP5$ LIKE :AT HAPP5$ ACCORD+ TO ! ,BIBLE TALE 9 ,EGYPT2 ONLY ) ?IS DIFF]5CE1 ?AT 9 ,RUSSIA !RE WAS NO ,JOSEPH TO  
=ETELL1 & !RE HAVE BE5 NO PROVID5T & ORD]LY M5 LIKE ,JOSEPH 2 BUT !RE HAVE BE5 MILLS1 RAILWAYS1 BANKS1 & BO? ! AU?ORITIES & PRIVATE P]SONS HAVE  
SUFF]$ FROM GREAT LACK ( MONEY4 ,9 ALL ! YE>S PREC$+1 MORE ?AN SEV51 !RE HAS BE5 MU* GRA91 PRICES HAVE BE5 L[ 2 BUT ! LACK ( MONEY HAS GR[N & GR[N AS IT REGUL>LY 9CREAS$ AMONG US1 & ! CONV5I5CES ( TRADE1 MILLS1 RAILWAYS1 & BUY+ AG5TS 5C\RAG$ TO TRADE1 & BR\<T IT AB\T ?AT :EAT WAS :OLLY SOLD BY AUTUMN4  

,IF DUR+ ! LA/ YE>S1 :5 :EAT HAD REA*$ AN  
ESPECIALLY L[ PRICE1 C]TA9 V5DORS BEGAN TO LAY 9 A  
/ORE ( GRA91 WAIT+ = A PRICE1 !N ?IS /ORAGE WAS  
SO DIFFICULT ?AT1 AS SOON AS ! PRICES ADVANC$ AT !  
BEG9N+ ( ! SPR+ ( ?IS YE>1 & REA*$ FIFTY  
& SIXTY KOPECKS A PUD1 !N ALL ! GRA9 WAS SOLD &  
CLEAN$ \T1 & NO?+ REMA9$ ( ! PROVISIONS (  
PREVI\S YE>S4 ,9 #ahd NOT ONLY HAD ! PROPRIETORS  
& TRADESM5 PL5TY ( PROVISIONS1 BUT EV]Y:]E  
AMONG ! MUZHIKS W]E FROM ?REE TO FIVE YE>S' /ORES  
( OLD GRA94 ,N[ ?IS CU/OM HAS GONE BY1 & !RE  
IS NO?+ LIKE IT ANY:]E4 ,9 ?IS CONSI/S ! ?IRD  
CONSID]ATION 3 ?AT GRA9 ?IS YE> WILL NOT BE SUFFICI5T4  

,BUT NOT ONLY IS !RE A PROBABILITY ( ?IS1 BUT !RE  
>E ALSO SYMPTOMS1 & SUFFICI5TLY DEF9ITE SYMPTOMS1  
?AT ?IS LACK EXI/S4  

,ONE ( !SE SYMPTOMS IS ! EV]Y DAY MORE &  
MORE FREQU5TLY REPEAT$ PH5OM5ON ?AT !RE IS  
NO BREAD ON SALE 9 ! DEP?S ( ! FAM9E-/RICK5  
LOCALITIES1 AS 9 ?AT 9 :I* ,I AM N[ 9 ! ,DANKOVSKY ,DI/RICT1 !RE IS NO RYE ON SALE4 ,! MUZHIKS  
CANNOT GET FLORIR4  

,YE/]DAY ,I SAW TWO MUZHIKS ( ! ,DANKOVSKY ,DI/RICT1 :O HAD BE5 DRIV+ >\ND A RADIUS WELL KN[N  
TO !M1 ( TW5TY V]/S1 TO ALL ! MILLS & %OPS1 TO  
BUY = MONEY TWO PUDS ( FL\R1 & !Y C\LD NOT  
F9D IT4 ,ONE BEGG$ = SOME AT ! DEPOT ( ANO!R  
DI/RICT 2 ! O!R OBTA9$ SOME4  

,& ?IS PH5OM5ON IS NOT EXCEPTIONAL 2 IT IS CON/ANTLY REPEAT$1 & EV]Y:]E4 ,MILL]S COME TO ASK  
= ,*RI/'S SAKE ,KHRI/A RADI TO LET !M HAVE  
FL\R AT ! ZEM/VO DEPOTS1 BECAUSE !Y HAVE NO FL\R1  
& CANNOT GET ANY4 ,( TRADESM5 9 ! CITIES1 ( !  
RAILWAY1 IT MAY BE B\<T 9 BULK1 AT LEA/ A HALF A C>LOAD OR A C>LOAD 2 BUT AT RETAIL !RE IS NONE TO BE HAD4  
,! GREAT M]*ANTS :O HAVE A SUPPLY WILL NOT SELL AT  
ALL1 !Y >E WAIT+ 2 ! SMALL TRADESM51 /OREKEEP]S1 BUY UP ALL !Y CAN1 & SELL IT AGA9 AT A PR(IT TO !  
:OLESALE M]*ANTS4 ,RETAIL TRADE IS ONLY 9 BAZA>S1  
ON M>KET DAYS1 & !N1 IF ! PUR*AS] COMES TOO  
LATE1 !RE IS NONE TO BE HAD4  

,?IS SYMPTOM1 IT SEEMS TO ME1 %[S ) SUFFICI5T  
PLA9NESS ?AT !RE IS NOT AS MU* GRA9 AS IS NE$$4  
,! SAME ?+ IS PROV$ P>TLY1 ALSO1 BY ! PRICES1  
AL?\< ?IS YE>1 HI!RTO1 !RE >E REASONS :I*  
DO NOT P]MIT PRICES TO BE A LEGITIMATE PRO( ( !  
CON=MITY ( DEM& ) SUPPLY4 ,! PRICES >E  
L[] ?AN !Y \<T TO BE1 & >E MA9TA9$ ON ?IS  
L[] LEVEL >TIFICIALLY 3 9 ! FIR/ PLACE BY ! 9T]DICTION ( EXPORT+ GRA9 ABROAD 2 9 ! SECOND PLACE  
BY ! ACTION ( ! ZEM/VOS1 :I* SELL RYE & MEAL  
AT R$UC$ PRICES4 ,I AM SPEAK+ ( ! PRICE ( RYE1  
SUPPOS+ ?AT ! PRICES ( O!R FOOD PRODUCTS  
BEETS1 POTATOES1 MILLET1 OATS MORE OR LESS CORRESPOND  
TO ! PRICE ( RYE4  

,! PROHIBITION ( =EIGN EXPORTATIONS R$UC$ PRICES1  
9 O!R WORDS1 CAUS$ PRICES TO BE AN UNRELIABLE 9DICATION ( ! AM\NT ( ANY GIV5 COMMODITY4 ,JU/ EXACTLY  
AS ! HEI<T ( ! LEVEL ( ! WAT] 9 A DAMM$ RIV]  
CANNOT BE AN 9DICATION ( ITS ACTUAL LEVEL1 SO ! PRES5T  
PRICE ( RYE CANNOT ACCURATELY M>K ! RELATION ( !  
DEM& TO ITS SUPPLY4 ,! PROHIBITION ( ! EXPORT  
( O!R BREAD/UFF'S HAS ! SAME EFFECT4 ,! PRICES  
N[ EXI/+ >E PRICES NOT SELF-SU/A9+1 & >E 9  
ANY CASE R$UC$ TEMPOR>ILY1 9 CONSEQU5CE ( !  
PROHIBITION ( EXPORT4 ,?IS IS ONE CAUSE ( ! FACT ?AT  
PRICES >E L[] ?AN !Y \<T TO BE4  

,ANO!R CAUSE IS ! ACTION ( ! ZEM/VOS4  

,! ZEM/VOS EV]Y:]E BUY ONLY 9 SMALL QUANTITIES1 R>ELY ONE-F\R? P>T ( ! GRA9 NE$$ =  
N\RI%M5T ACCORD+ TO !IR LI/S1 & !Y SELL !  
GRA9 AT A R$UC$ PRICE4 ,?IS ACTION ( ! ZEM/VOS  
ALSO R$UCES ! PRICE1 S9CE IF !RE W]E NO SALE FROM  
! DEPOTS ( ! ZEM/VOS1 ?IS SALE W\LD COME  
FROM ! L>GE DEAL]S :O1 ACCORD+ AS ! DEM&  
9CREAS$1 W\LD RAISE ! PRICES4 ,& !RE=E ,I  
?9K ! PRICE N[ MA9TA9$ IS NOT ! ACTUAL PRICE4  

,! PRICE AT ! PRES5T TIME ,I ?9K IS F> L[] ?AN  
:AT IT W\LD BE IF IT W]E NOT = ! ACTION ( !  
ZEM/VOS4 ,& ?IS PRICE W\LD IMM$IATELY RISE )  
EXTRAORD9>Y RAPIDITY IF ONLY IT %\LD OCCUR TO !  
ZEM/VOS TO BUY ! REMA9+ ?REE-F\R?S ( !  
GRA9 !Y NE$4  

,WE MI<T SAY ?AT ! PRICE WILL NOT RISE IF !  
ZEM/VOS HAD B\<T N[ ! :OLE QUANTITY NE$$1  
& RYE W]E ON SALE AT ?AT PRICE4 ,BUT ACCORD+ TO  
! PRES5T /ATE ( ?+S !RE IS NO LIKELIHOOD ?AT  
?IS WAS SO4 ,ACCORD+ TO ! PRES5T /ATE ( CIRCUM/ANCES1 ?AT IS TO SAY1 AT ! PRICE ( ONE RUBLE SEV5TY  
KOPECKS1 :5 ! ZEM/VOS DID NOT BUY EV5 ONE-F\R?  
( ! NECESS>Y GRA91 & :5 !RE WAS NO RYE  
(F]$ = SALE ANY:]E1 EV5 9 SMALL QUANTITIES1  
!RE IS1 ON ! CONTR>Y1 A PROBABILITY ?AT BY REASON  
( ! ZEM/VOS BUY+ ! :OLE QUANTITY !Y NE$$  
! PRICE W\LD SUDD5LY RISE TO A PRICE :I* W\LD  
%[ ?AT !RE WAS NONE ( ! GRA9 9 ,RUSSIA4 ,!  
PRICE EV5 N[ 9 \R LOCALITIES HAS RIS5 TO ! HI<E/  
NOT* TO :I* IT HAS EV] ATTA9$1 TO ONE RUBLE SEV5TY  
KOPECKS1 & /ILL CONT9UES TO RISE REGUL>LY4  

,ALL !SE SYMPTOMS %[ ?AT !RE IS A GREAT PROBABILITY ?AT ,RUSSIA HAS NOT ! GRA9 %E NE$S4  

,BUT BESIDES !SE SYMPTOMS !RE IS /ILL ANO!R  
PH5OM5ON :I* \<T TO COMPEL US TO TAKE ALL  
POSSIBLE MEASURES TO AV]T ! MIS=TUNE ?AT ?REAT5S  
US4 ,?IS PH5OM5ON IS ! PANIC :I* HAS SEIZ$  
SOCIETY1 ?AT IS TO SAY1 ! UNDEF9$ OBSCURE T]ROR (  
SOME EXPECT$ MIS=TUNE ! T]ROR :I* PEOPLE  
COMMUNICATE TO ONE ANO!R1 ! T]ROR :I* DEPRIVES  
PEOPLE ( ! CAPABILITY ( WORK+ TO ANY PURPOSE4  
,?IS PANIC IS EXPRESS$ EV5 9 ! PROHIBITION ( EXPORT+ FIR/ RYE1 !N ( ! O!R BREAD/UFFS1 EXCEPT  
= SOME REASON ( MILLET1 & 9 SU* MEASURES1 ON !  
ONE H&1 AS ASSIGN+ GREAT SUMS = ! />V+1  
& ON ! O!R H&1 ! COLLECT+ BY ! LOCAL AU?ORITIES ( ASSESSM5TS FROM ?OSE :O CAN PAY1 AS IF  
! EXTRACTION ( MONEY FROM ! C\NTRY W]E NOT A  
DIRECT 5HANCEM5T ( ! POV]TY ( ! C\NTRY4  

,A RI* MUZHIK HOLDS A MORTGAGE ON A POOR ONE'S  
UNGA!R$ CROPS4 ,HE W\LD NOT PU% HIM1 BUT !  
TAXES >E DEM&$ FROM HIM1 SO HE HAS TO DEM&  
PAYM5T FROM ! POOR MAN1 & RU9S HIM4  

,?IS PANIC IS P>TICUL>LY NOTICEABLE 9 ! CONTROV]SIES BETWE5 ! V>I\S LOCAL DEP>TM5TS4 ,!RE  
IS A REPETITION ( :AT ALWAYS TAKES PLACE 9 A PANIC  
T]ROR 2 SOME PULL 9 ONE DIRECTION1 SOME 9 ANO!R4  

,?IS PANIC IS ALSO NOTICEABLE 9 ! AMUSEM5TS &  
ACTIVITIES ( ! PEOPLE4 ,I WILL ADDUCE ONE EXAMPLE1  
! MOVEM5T ( ! PEOPLE T[>D WAGE-E>N+4  

,! PEOPLE T[>D ! 5D ( ,OCTOB] ( ?IS YE>  
GO TO SEEK OCCUPATION 9 ,MOSC[ & ,PET]SBURG1 AT  
! TIME :5 ALL ! LABORS = ! W9T] HAVE CEAS$1  
:5 PROVISIONS >E ?REE TIMES MORE EXP5SIVE ?AN  
USUAL1 & EV]Y H\SEHOLD] HAS GOT RID ( ALL ! SUP]FLU\S P]SONS HE CAN1 AT A TIME :5 EV]Y:]E !RE  
IS A MULTITUDE ( LABOR+ M5 ?R[N \T ( WORK  
!N PEOPLE1 :O NEV] HAD ANY POSITION 9 ! CITIES1  
GO & SEEK ?OSE SITUATIONS4  

,IS IT NOT EVID5T TO EV]Y ONE ?AT 9 SU* CONDITIONS  
!RE IS MORE LIKELIHOOD ( EV]Y PROPRIETOR ( A LOTT]Y  
TICKET DRAW+ TWO HUNDR$ ?\S& RUBLES ?AN ( A  
MUZHIK :O COMES TO ,MOSC[ FROM ! C\NTRY F9D+  
A PLACE1 & ?AT EV]Y J\RNEY1 EV5 ?\< V]Y 9EXP5SIVE1 ) ! EXP5SES 9CID5TAL TO TRAVEL1 :]E  
!RE IS SOME DR9K+1 IS ONLY A SUP]NUM]>Y DIFFICULTY  
RU%+ ON ! POOR 8  

,IT W\LD SEEM AS IF IT \<T TO BE EVID5T1 BUT ALL  
COME COME BACK & COME AGA94 ,IS NOT ?IS A  
SYMPTOM ( ! ABSOLUTE S5SELESSNESS :I* SEIZES  
! ?RONG AT EV]Y PANIC8  

,ALL !SE SYMPTOMS1 & *IEFLY ! PH5OM5ON (  
! PANIC1 >E V]Y SIGNIFICANT1 & !RE=E ONE CANNOT  
HELP FE>+4 ,IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO SAY1 AS IS G5]ALLY  
SAID AB\T ! 5EMY BE=E \R =CES >E COMP>$  
) HIS1 WE CAN CAT* HIM ) \R HATS4 ,! 5EMY1  
! T]RIBLE 5EMY1 /&S H]E BE=E US1 & WE  
CANNOT SAY WE DO NOT FE> HIM1 BECAUSE WE KN[ :AT  
HE IS1 & MORE ?AN ALL1 WE KN[ ?AT WE FE> HIM4  

,BUT IF WE FE> HIM1 !N IT IS NECESS>Y = US BE=E  
ALL TO KN[ HIS /R5G?4 ,IT IS IMPOSSIBLE = US TO  
REMA9 9 ?IS IGNORANCE 9 :I* WE F9D \RSELVES4  

,LET US ADMIT ?AT ,RUSSIAN SOCIETY1 ! PEOPLE ?AT LIVE  
\TSIDE ! FAM9E-/RICK5 LOCALITIES1 F9D !IR SOLID>ITY  
BO? SPIRITUAL & MAT]IAL ) ! UN=TUNATE PEOPLE1  
& UND]GO ACTUAL S]I\S SACRIFICES = ! HELP ( !  
/>V+4 ,LET US ADMIT ?AT ! ACTIVITY ( !SE PEOPLE1 :O LIVE N[ AMID ! />V+1 LABOR+ = !M1  
ACCORD+ TO ! MEASURE ( !IR ABILITY1 WILL CONT9UE  
TILL ! 5D1 & ?AT ! NUMB]S ( !SE PEOPLE WILL  
9CREASE2 LET US ADMIT ?AT ! PEOPLE !MSELVES >E  
NOT D[N-HE>T$1 & WILL FI<T ) POV]TY1 AS !Y  
>E N[ FI<T+ ) IT1 BY ALL NEGATIVE & POSITIVE  
MEANS 9 O!R WORDS RE/RA9+ !MSELVES &  
9CREAS+ !IR 5]GY & 9V5TIV5ESS = ! ATTA9M5T ( ! MEANS ( LIFE 2 LET US ADMIT ?AT ALL ?IS  
HAS BE5 DONE & WILL BE DONE = A MON?1 TWO1 ?REE1  
SIX MON?S !N SUDD5LY ! PRICE GOES UP1 GOES UP1  
JU/ AS IT HAS BE5 GO+ UP1 FROM =TY-FIVE KOPECKS TO  
ONE RUBLE SEV5TY KOPECKS1 REGUL>LY FROM BAZA> TO  
BAZA>1 & 9 A FEW WEEKS REA*ES TWO OR ?REE RUBLES  
A PUD1 & IT TRANSPIRES ?AT !RE IS NO GRA91 & ?AT  
ALL ! SACRIFICES 5DUR$1 BO? BY ?OSE ?AT GAVE MONEY  
& BY ?OSE ?AT HAVE BE5 LIV+ & LABOR+ AMID  
! SUFF]]S1 W]E WA/$ EXP5DITURES ( MEANS &  
=CES1 & *IEFLY ?AT ALL ! 5]GY ( ! PEOPLE  
WAS EXP5D$ 9 VA91 & 9 SPITE ( ALL !IR EF=TS  
!Y1 ?AT IS A P>T ( !M1 W\LD NEV]!LESS HAVE  
TO DIE ( />VATION1 !N H[ C\LD WE KN[ & PREV5T IT 8  

,IT IS IMPOSSIBLE1 IMPOSSIBLE1 & AGA9 IMPOSSIBLE TO  
REMA9 9 ?IS UNC]TA9TY1 IMPOSSIBLE = US1 WISE1  
LE>N$ PEOPLE TO REMA9 SO4 ,! MUZHIK :OM ,I SAW  
YE/]DAY WAS DO+ AB\T ALL ?AT HE C\LD4 ,HE HAD  
PROCUR$ MONEY1 & HAD GONE TO SEEK = GRA94 ,HE  
HAD BE5 TO ,MIKHAI'L ,VASILYEF'S1 HE HAD BE5 TO ! MILL1  
HE HAD BE5 TO ,*]NAVO NO:]E C\LD HE OBTA9 MEAL4  
,AFT] HE HAD GONE TO ALL ! PLACES :]E MEAL MI<T  
POSSIBLY BE1 HE KNEW ?AT HE HAD DONE HIS BE/ 2 & IF AFT] ?IS HE C\LD NOT GET MEAL ANY:]E & HE &  
HIS FAMILY %\LD BE ATTACK$ BY FAM9E1 HE W\LD KN[  
?AT HE HAD DONE TO ! BE/ ( HIS ABILITY1 & HIS CONSCI5CE W\LD BE AT RE/4  

,BUT = US1 IF IT IS %[N ?AT !RE IS NO GRA9 TO BE  
HAD1 & \R LABORS >E BR\<T TO NAU<T1 & WE &  
! PEOPLE MAYBE >E P]I%+ TOGE!R1 \R CONSCI5CES  
WILL NOT BE AT RE/4 ,WE MI<T HAVE KN[N H[ MU*  
GRA9 W\LD BE NE$$ BY US1 & MI<T HAVE GOT IT4  
,IF \R LE>N+ & \R SCI5CE >E ( ANY USE TO US1  
!N = :AT MORE IMPORTANT PURPOSE ?AN TO 5ABLE  
US TO HELP 9 SU* A UNIV]SAL TRIBULATION AS \RS TO-DAY 8  
,LET US DECIDE H[ MU* GRA9 IS NECESS>Y = ! N\RI%M5T ( ?OSE ?AT HAVE NONE ?IS YE> & H[  
MU* !RE IS 9 ,RUSSIA1 & IF !RE IS NOT AS MU* AS  
IS NECESS>Y1 !N LET US ORD] FROM =EIGN L&S AS  
MU* GRA9 AS IS NE$$ 2 ?IS IS \R DIRECT BUS9ESS1 &  
JU/ AS NATURAL AS :AT ! MUZHIK DID YE/]DAY :5  
HE MADE A CIRCUIT ( TW5TY V]/S4 ,& \R CON-  
SCI5CES WILL BE AT RE/ ONLY :5 WE MAKE \R CIRCUIT  
& DO 9 IT ALL ?AT WE CAN4 ,= HIM ! CIRCUIT IS  
,DANK(1 ,KLEKOTKI 2 = US ! CIRCUIT IS ,9DIA1 ,AM]ICA1  
,AU/RALIA4 ,WE NOT ONLY KN[ ?AT !SE C\NTRIES  
EXI/1 WE >E ALREADY 9 FRI5DLY 9T]C\RSE ) !IR  
9HABITANTS4  

,BUT H[ CAN WE E/IMATE :AT WE NE$ & ! GRA9  
:I* WE HAVE 8 ,CAN ?IS BE SO DIFFICULT 8 ,WE :O CAN  
C\NT H[ MANY K9DS ( BEETLES !RE >E 9 ! WORLD1  
H[ MANY MICROBES !RE >E 9 SU* & SU* A SPACE1  
H[ MANY MILLIONS ( V]/S IT IS TO ! />S1 & H[  
MANY PUDS ( IRON & HYDROG5 !RE >E 9 EA* ONE  
WE1 =SOO?1 >E NOT ABLE TO RECKON UP H[ MU* PEOPLE NE$ TO EAT SO AS NOT TO P]I% ( />VATION1 & H[  
MU* GRA9 HAS BE5 G>N]$ BY ! PEOPLE FROM !  
FIELDS :]EBY WE HAVE BE51 & /ILL >E1 N\RI%$4  
,WE :O ) SU* WEAL? ( DETAIL HAVE COLLECT$ SU*  
A MASS ( /ATI/ICAL MAT]IALS SO F> AS ,I KN[ UP TO  
! PRES5T TIME ( NO USE TO ANY LIV+ P]SON DETAILS  
AS TO ! P]C5TAGE ( BIR?S AS COMP>$ TO M>RIAGES  
& DEA?S & ! LIKE WE SUDD5LY F9D \RSELVES NOT 9 A CONDITION TO COLLECT ! ONLY 9=MATION :I*  
9 ! C\RSE ( A C5TURY IS HELPFUL1 IS REALLY USEFUL4  
,?IS CANNOT BE4 ,TO COLLECT !SE DETAILS ACCURATE ONES  
& NOT CONJECTURAL1 & NOT APPROXIMATE DETAILS LIKE  
?OSE FURNI%$ 9 REG>D TO ! NUMB] ( ! POPULATION 9 A ONE DAY'S C5SUS1 IS POSSIBLE4  

,9=MATION IS NE$$ AS TO H[ MU* MORE ?AN !  
ORD9>Y AM\NT ( GRA9 B\<T = ! SUPPORT ( !  
,RUSSIAN PEOPLE MU/ BE FURNI%$ ?IS YE> = ! 9HABITANTS ( ! FAM9E-/RICK5 LOCALITIES1 & H[ MU*  
GRA9 !RE IS 9 ,RUSSIA4  

,:E!R ! ANSW]S TO !SE QUE/IONS >E EASY OR  
DIFFICULT1 !Y >E 9DISP5SABLE = ! PREV5TION1 NOT  
ONLY ( ! PANIC1 ?AT IS1 ( ?AT CONFUS$LY CONTAGI\S T]ROR ( APPROA*+ MIS=TUNE 9 :I* M5  
>E N[ LIV+1 BUT PR9CIPALLY = ! AV]T+ ( !  
MIS=TUNE ITSELF4  

,& NOT APPROXIMATE1 NOT HAPHAZ>D1 ANSW]S >E  
REQUIR$1 BUT SY/EMATIC ONES 2 ! MATT] IS TOO S]I\S  
= US TO BE ABLE TO DO IT M]ELY SKET*+ ! HEAD1 9  
O!R WORDS1 TO BUILD ?IS VAULT :I* WE DO1 NOT KN[+ :E!R ! /ONE WILL SUFFICE TO COMPLETE IT4  

,!SE DETAILS ! GOV]NM5T MAY RECEIVE 2 ! ZEM/VO MAY RECEIVE !M ON ! SPOT1 & MORE TRU/WOR?Y  
?AN ALL1 A PRIVATE SOCIETY CON/ITUT$ = ?IS PURPOSE  
MAY RECEIVE !M4 ,!RE IS NOT A DI/RICT :]E !RE  
W\LD NOT BE F\ND1 NOT M]ELY ONE1 BUT MANY M51 :O  
W\LD BE ABLE & W\LD WILL+LY S]VE 9 ?IS BUS9ESS4  

,IT SEEMS TO ME NOT EXCESSIVELY DIFFICULT4 ,9 A WEEK'S  
TIME1 )\T MU* TR\BLE1 AN ACTIVE MAN CAN TRAV]SE  
A QU>T] OR A FIF? ( A DI/RICT1 ESPECIALLY IF HE LIVES 9  
IT 2 & ) A POSSIBILITY ( ]ROR ( FROM T5 TO FIFTE5  
P] C5T CAN DET]M9E ! AM\NT ( GRA9 REQUISITE  
= SUBSI/5CE1 & ! AM\NT ON H& ABOVE &  
BEYOND ?AT REQUIR$ BY EA* P]SON4 ,I1 AT LEA/1 WILL  
UND]TAKE P]SONALLY TO FURNI% SU* 9=MATION )9  
A WEEK'S TIME REG>D+ A QU>T] ( ! DI/RICT 9  
:I* ,I LIVE4 ,!4 SAME IS SAID & CAN BE DONE BY !  
MAJORITY ( ! C\NTRY PEOPLE ) :OM ,I HAVE TALK$  
9 REG>D TO ?IS4 ,TO ORGANIZE A C5TRAL BUREAU 9 :I* C\LD BE COLLECT$ & GR\P$ ALL ! SEP>ATE ITEMS1  
& :I* MI<T S5D ITS MEMB]S ) ?IS OBJECT 9  
VIEW 9TO PLACES :]E VOLUNTE]S W]E NOT =?COM+1  
,I IMAG9E W\LD BE FEASIBLE & NOT DIFFICULT4 ,!RE  
MI<T BE MI/AKES1 !RE MI<T BE CONCEALM5TS CONCEALM5TS ON ! P>T ( ?OSE HAV+ GRA9 !RE MI<T BE TRANSF]S ( GRA9 FROM ONE PLACE TO ANO!R1  
CAUS+ ]RORS 2 BUT ! ]RORS ( RECKON+ ,I IMAG9E  
W\LD NOT BE GREAT1 & ! 9=MATION RECEIV$ 9 ?IS  
WAY W\LD BE SUFFICI5TLY PRECISE TO ANSW] ! *IEF  
QUE/ION1 PA9FUL AS IT IS1 EV5 IF NOT EXPRESS$ BUT FELT  
BY ALL 3 ,IS !RE1 OR IS !RE NOT1 5\< GRA9 9 ,RUSSIA 8  

,IF1 LET US SUPPOSE1 IT IS %[N ?AT ?IS YE>1 ACCORD+ TO ! RECKON+ ( ! GRA9 EMPLOY$ G5]ALLY  
= ! >MY & = LIQUOR-DI/ILL+1 ! ABUNDANCE  
AGA9/ ?AT :I* IS NECESS>Y = ! SU/5ANCE  
( ! PEOPLE CON/ITUTES ONE HUNDR$ OR FIFTY MILLION  
PUDS1 SUPPOS+ ?AT A P>T ( !SE ONE HUNDR$ MILLION  
MI<T BE KEPT BY DEAL]S1 A P>T SPOIL$1 A P>T BURN$1  
A P>T MI<T CON/ITUTE A MI/AKE 9 RECKON+1 WE MI<T  
CALMLY & RESOLUTELY GO ON LIV+4 ,IF !RE WAS NO  
SUP]FLUITY AT ALL1 & IT WAS %[N ?AT 9 ,RUSSIA !RE  
WAS NOT AS MU* GRA9 AS WAS NECESS>Y1 ! /ATE (  
?+S W\LD BE DUBI\S & DANG]\S 2 BUT1 NEV]!LESS1 IT MI<T BE ?AT1 BY NOT ORD]+ GRA9 FROM ABROAD1  
ONLY BY MODIFY+ ! AM\NT ( GRA9 US$1 = EXAMPLE1 ON LIQUOR-DI/ILL+1 GIV+ \T SOME ( ! GRA9  
GRATUIT\SLY1 IT MI<T BE POSSIBLE TO GO ON LIV+ &  
WORK+4  

,BUT IF IT W]E PROV$ ?AT WE >E ONE HUNDR$ OR FIFTY  
MILLION PUDS ( GRA9 %ORT1 ! SITUATION W\LD BE DANG]\S4 ,IT W\LD BE ANALOG\S TO :AT TAKES PLACE :5  
A FIRE FLA%ES \T & CAT*ES A BUILD+4 ,BUT IF WE  
KN[ ?IS N[ IT W\LD BE AS IF :5 ! FIRE FIR/ BUR/  
\T1 IT WAS /ILL POSSIBLE TO EXT+UI% IT4  

,IF WE %\LD F9D ?IS \T ONLY :5 ! LA/ T5 ?\S& PUDS W]E GO+1 !N IT W\LD BE LIKE ! FIRE :I* %\LD HAVE ALREADY CAU<T ! BUILD+ & !RE WAS N[ LITTLE HOPE ( ESCAP+ FROM IT4  

,IF WE N[ KNEW ?AT WE HAD AN 9SUFFICI5CY ( GRA91 LET IT BE FIFTY OR ONE HUNDR$ OR EV5 TWO HUNDR$ MILLION PUDS1 ALL ?IS W\LD NOT BE SO T]RIBLE4 ,WE C\LD  
N[ BUY ?AT AM\NT ( GRA9 9 ,AM]ICA & IT C\LD  
ALWAYS BE PAID = BY GOV]NM5TAL1 SOCIAL1 OR POPUL>  
FUNDS4  

,! PEOPLE :O >E WORK+ \<T TO KN[ ?AT !IR WORK HAS A MEAN+ & IS NOT WA/$4  

,)\T ?IS CONSCI\SNESS H&S FALL IDLE4 ,BUT 9  
ORD] TO KN[ ?IS = ?AT WORK 9 :I* N[ >E EMPLOY$ AN 5ORM\S NUMB] ( ,RUSSIAN PEOPLE1 IT IS  
NECESS>Y TO KN[ N[1 9/ANTLY1 )9 TWO OR ?REE  
WEEKS1 :E!R WE HAVE 5\< GRA9 = ?IS YE>1 &  
IF NOT1 !N :]E WE CAN GET 5\< TO REM$Y !  
DEFICIT4  

,B,Y,E,G,I,*,E,V,K,O1 ,NOVEMB] #a#c1 #a#h#i#a4 

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